The Downfall of Al-Shabaab in Somalia
We last reported on the success of the renewed offensive against the terrorist organisation Al-Shabaab. Now, it seems that the counter-offensive is achieving tremendous success. In the past few weeks, the crumbling Al-Shabaab has suffered significant losses with the deaths of multiple high-profile group members. On Saturday, the 23rd of May, the US and Somali forces launched a collaborative assault on the region of Middle Juba, where a suspected Al-Shabaab headquarters was situated. Airstrikes from the US were launched on the town of Jilib, setting the stage for the Somali Army to launch a ground assault. After the intense airstrikes and raids, Al-Shabaab's leaders, Ahmed Diriye and Abu Ubaidah, released a video showcasing a previous meeting between several important members of the group, which took place from the 8th to the 15th of May. The group called this meeting 'The Jihad in East Africa' (Garowe Online, 2023). While the group tried to appear unfazed in the face of the rapidly approaching assault, this facade was quickly shattered when Al-Shabaab forces clashed with Somali counter-terror forces. The military had begun carrying out arrests in the town of Towfiq after a tip-off from villagers that an Al-Shabaab commander was hiding there. As security forces apprehended the leading Al-Shabaab operative, other members of the militant group attacked. Among these attackers was Al-Shabaab finance chief Mahad Aquadub. After the military fought off these attackers, Aquadub was shot, causing the terror chief to flee. While fleeing capture, he suffered a heart attack which resulted in his death. Four other militants were arrested following the attacks. These operatives have been linked to the planning of multiple terror attacks and are currently being held in Mogadishu (Garowe Online, 2023). Aquadub's death was a crushing blow for the group, as he was instrumental in collecting taxes for the organisation. As Al-Shabaab would occupy areas, they would coerce businesses and citizens into paying them taxes, which would go towards funding the group's operations. With Aquadub dead, the funding for the group has been greatly restricted. The financier was in charge of unlawful tax collection within the Galamadug Region.
The following day, the US released a preliminary report on the results of the airstrikes on Jilib. It was revealed by the Somali Ministry of Information that the airstrikes targeted leading Al-Shabaab member Osman Mohamed Abdi. Abdi was reportedly severely injured in the airstrikes. Somali state media stated, "Osman Mohamed Abdi [...] was wounded in a joint operation carried out by the National Army and international allies in Jilib. Abdi was responsible for smuggling foreign terrorists into the country and spreading propaganda to recruit fighters". (Garowe Online, 2023) Abdi's official title within the group was Head of External Operations. He had previously been the group's Head of Defense. Abdi is also directly linked to the 2016 El-Adde Attacks, which were the largest attacks on African peacekeepers on Somali soil, leaving more than two hundred Kenyan soldiers dead. In the following days, intelligence suggested that Abdi was critically injured and in an unconscious state. His condition is worsening by the day, and his death is seemingly imminent.
On the 26th of May, Al-Shabaab militants attacked a military base belonging to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) in Bulo Marer. The attacks began at around 5 am when cars filled with explosives and suicide bombers crashed into the base, which housed Ugandan soldiers. Following the explosions, a fierce firefight broke out between ATMIS forces, Somali forces, and Al-Shabaab militants. The fighting resulted in major losses for the terror group, although they did manage to seize some military equipment. However, this seizure was short-lived as ATMIS and US aerial units launched airstrikes on the captured equipment, destroying them in the process. Following the strikes, the remaining attackers fled. Al-Shabaab-owned media claimed that they had overrun the base, but Somali, ATMIS, and US sources declared that the situation is under control (IOL, 2023). Al-Shabaab is slowly being contained, and even their retaliatory attacks are failing, resulting in multiple casualties for them.
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| ATMIS Soldiers |
By the 29th of May, the situation within the organisation was dire. This was most glaringly obvious when a leading member of the group surrendered and left the organisation. The man in question was Abdirahman Macalin Ahmed, a founding member of Al-Shabaab, who held several influential roles within the group, including as an advisor to the group's former leader. Ahmed was most active in the southern regions of Somalia, where he was in charge of extortion in the Lower Shabelle Region (Garowe Online, 2023). With all of these high-profile losses, it's clear that Al-Shabaab's grip on Somalia is rapidly slipping. The offensives by the African Union, US, and Somali military are clearly extremely effective. All of these losses have occurred in the past week alone. Going forward, as the summer counteroffensive intensifies, it is highly likely that we will witness further losses and possibly more surrenders from high-ranking members of the group. Clearly, with Ahmed surrendering and leaving the group, the organisation is in shambles. It looks as if it is the beginning of the end for Al-Shabaab.












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