A Year in Counter Terrorism: The Coups of Africa

The past few years have seen multiple crises in the continent of Africa, not only through the rise in violent extremism but also through political unrest. The coups in Africa have been some of the most reported incidents in Africa this year. Niger and Gabon saw coups this year, making it seven coups in Africa since 2020. Often referred to as the 'coup belt', the worrying trend in Western and Central African coups reveals a worrying trend in African Democracy. The circumstances behind the Nigerien and Gabonese coups reveal the problems with Democracy in these African nations. 

The Nigerien Coup Crisis

The coup in Niger is a showcase of the wider problems in West Africa. To understand why President Mohamed Bazoum was removed from power, it is important to understand the issues surrounding violent extremism in the region. Extremism and insurgency in West Africa are rife. Terrorist organizations and their activities affect the democratic processes both nationally and internationally. Pressures applied to governments by these groups have led to widespread disdain for national governments and their failures when it comes to tackling extremism. This is one reason why coups in West Africa are an extremely common occurrence. Military juntas currently control Mali, Sudan, Burkina Faso, Benin, Guinea-Bissau, Gambia, Guinea, and Chad. An overthrow of the government is detrimental to the international relations of the country. For many of these coup-affected governments, the ousted leader was friendly with Western countries, usually the former colonial owner of the nation. Once removed, new allies would be found with enemies of those in the West. In West Africa, this mainly consists of the juntas distancing themselves from France and strengthening relations with Russia, and by extension, the Wagner paramilitary Group.

The Wagner Group has created a new incentive for this relationship with Russia. In the fight against terror in these affected African nations, usually, Western allies would be aiding in the fight against extremism. As these counter-terror activities failed, blame quickly fell onto the Western militaries, from both the country's citizens, politicians, and military. Once a coup had taken place, western allies and International Organisations (like the African Union) would sever all support. This would leave a massive military vacuum as hundreds of troops would be removed from the fight against counter-terror. Strengthening relations with Russia enables these military juntas to use the paramilitary Wagner Group, which already has a strong presence in Africa. Such a dynamic has created a sort of incentive for the military to take control of the government. 

Fighting extremism in Africa has been fraught with tactical and political disasters. So, when public and military support had shifted against the sitting government, militaries didn't have to worry about the implications of a potential coup. Once they had assumed power, they would have a firm ally in Russia. International organisations also impose sanctions on military juntas to deter them from happening. However, the mass of military juntas in Africa means that there is now a support system in place for these new juntas. No longer will financial sanctions devastate the country, because other juntas will assist new ones. This process, and the growing number of juntas in Africa, creates a worrying backdrop to the Nigerien Coup Crisis.

In the early months of 2023, Niger was experiencing a security crisis, facing two insurgencies by two different warring terrorist organizations. JNIM, an Al-Qaeda-affiliated insurgent group, and the Islamic State in the Sahel are both active in Niger and actively fighting against each other. Furthermore, rebel organizations in the neighbouring juntas and criminal bandit gangs are also active around Niger's border. With all of these groups active, vying for control of border areas of Niger, violent attacks are extremely common, not just on other groups but also on politicians and civilians. Niger's military, along with supporting French soldiers, were struggling to properly combat the violence. The background of violence bred a rise in anti-government sentiment and negative attitudes towards France. President Mohamed Bazoum of Niger had been a vocal supporter of France and had criticized his junta neighbours on numerous occasions. He had spoken negatively about the coups of neighbouring Mali and their decisions to employ the Wagner Group. He had criticized Burkina Faso for employing local militias in counter-terrorism. These statements, while endorsing France, galvanized his detractors and even attracted critics from these neighbouring nations.

The growing dislike for the sitting government put pressure on politicians to make changes within the military, in hopes of correcting the issues of the failed counter-terror campaigns. President Mohamed Bazoum had started making plans to remove military leadership from their roles. One of these leaders about to be fired from their position was Abdourahamane Tchiani, the leader of the Presidential Guard. Tchiani had held the position for many years and had defended Bazoum and his predecessor from coup attempts. The decision to remove him had him, and many other military leaders, feeling scorned by Bazoum and his government.

On July 26th, Tchiani, and the Presidential Guardsmen began the coup. Reports came out saying that the Guardsmen were conducting anti-republican activities. Then, it was reported that Bazoum and his family were now hostages within their home. Coup-supporting forces, from other branches of the county's military, began to block off key Governmental buildings and began dispersing crowds of Bazoum's supporters with gunfire. Forces loyal to Bazoum, mainly members of the Army and National Guard, began to take key strategic points, preparing to engage any pro-coup forces on the move. The scene was set for country-wide warfare between government loyalists and pro-coup forces. 

The Chief of the country's air force, and other prominent members from various armed forces branches, took to television to declare his support for the coup and told the general public that Bazoum had been ousted from power. He also formally announced the formation of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (NCSH), Niger's new military junta Government. The military had made their coup obvious and clear, but many believed that Bazoum still held power. He had not resigned or commented on the coup against him. Western nations began to criticise the coup and called for the release of Bazoum.

Nigerien Military Officials on TV Backing the Coup Against Bazoum

Before widespread violence could break between Government loyalists and pro-coup forces, the Chief of Staff for the Nigerien Army signed a document endorsing the coup, to avoid the brutal country-wide fighting. The junta began using their new authoritative powers to suspend all military cooperation with France. The junta also had officials on TV making announcements. Such public displays and immediate action against France had stirred up the critics of Bazoum and France. Thousands took to the streets brandishing Russian flags and vandalising government buildings. Police attempted to disperse the crowds, but a riot quickly broke out with government buildings being set alight. All forms of demonstration were then banned by the Interior Ministry. On July 28th, the Government was officially suspended and General Tchiani was declared as the new head of state. In a statement, delivered on television, Tchiani scorned Bazoum for his lack of cooperation with neighbouring juntas and his unwavering support for France. This was the end of the coup, but not from the crisis. Bazoum and his family had been imprisoned in his home and were not being freed.

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is an international organisation that covers the area of West Africa. Previously, they had imposed restrictions on military juntas. Seeing the growing trend of coups in West Africa, and the lack of impact from their sanctions, ECOWAS took immediate, decisive action after Niger's coup. Financial sanctions weren't a feasible punishment due to the fostering of military juntas. ECOWAS demanded Bazoum be reinstated by July 30th. When this was not done, they began to discuss mobilising their standing, armed force to physically reinstate him. In early August, the force was raised and plans were made to invade Niger. The junta threatened to kill Bazoum if ECOWAS did so. Since then, there has been a tentative negotiation process between ECOWAS, the junta and the United Nations, all the while Bazoum remains imprisoned. 

To read the initial reactions and analyses as the Nigerien Coup unfolded, check out our first article reporting on it: https://visionmilitarynews.blogspot.com/2023/07/the-ongoing-coup-in-niger-what-we-know.html

Here is another article on the Pro-Russian Movement sweeping through Niger: https://visionmilitarynews.blogspot.com/2023/08/the-post-coup-pro-russian-movement.html

The Coup in Gabon 

The coup in Gabon has one man at the centre of it: President, now former President, Ali Bongo Ondimba. Unlike the other coups in West Africa, Gabon's coup was not prompted by the reaction to violent extremism. In fact, Gabon was a relatively secure country security-wise. Instead, Gabon's coup was caused by internal corruption within the nation's Government. The Bongo family had a vice-like grip on the democratic processes of Gabon since its independence in 1960. Bongo had held office since 2009 when his father passed away, with leadership being passed to him after his death. Since then, his reign has been marred in controversy.

Gabon's Former President Ali Bongo

Gabon is a member of OPEC, an organisation where the world's most petroleum-rich nations cooperate to influence global oil markets. The main goal of this group is to boost revenue for member nations, with other members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Mexico. Despite being part of this organisation and being one of Africa's largest oil producers, Gabon's population remains poverty-stricken. Unemployment rates for 15 to 24-year-olds were around 40%, and one-third of the country lived in poverty. The income from Gabon's massive oil exports wasn't reinvested in the country but was absorbed by Bongo and his corrupt Government.

The issue of corruption didn't just plague Gabon's economy but also its elections. Following his re-election in 2016, tensions boiled over in an attempted coup. Bongo was elected with 95.5% of the overall votes, with 99.9% of the county's population voting. These numbers were highly suspect and were met with immediate scepticism from Bongo's detractors. In 2019, a coup was attempted to remove Bongo from power following his years of corruption. This coup failed, and Bongo vowed to keep Gabon stable, unlike other regions in Africa.

The corruption and scandal by Ali Bongo continued, and by 2020, the country had found itself in an economic crisis. In August 2023, Bongo was up for re-election once again, and it was expected that he would lose due to his immense unpopularity. However, once again, he was re-elected in dubious circumstances on August 26th, 2023. His opponent in the elections, and the candidate who had placed second, Albert Ondo Ossa, began to put pressure on Bongo about the election results, believing they had tampered with. When it came time to officially reveal the election results, it was done in the middle of the night, unannounced on state television. Then, curfew measures and internet restrictions were imposed to curb the criticism about the results. Bongo and his Government claimed that the talks of corruption were fake news by those attempting to incite violence. Bongo's re-election was officially announced at 3:30 in the morning by Gabon's Electoral Commission, with him winning with 64% of the overall vote. The early morning announcement did not stop the citizens of Gabon from protesting. Immediately protests began against President Ali Bongo and his corrupt Government. Gabon's military intervened, siding against Bongo. Military officials took to TV Channel Gabon24 to declare that they were removing Bongo from power. One military official said that Bongo was being ousted because of "irresponsible, unpredictable governance," which led to "a continuous degradation of social cohesion." They also announced a border closure and a curfew whilst they removed Bongo from power.

Excerpt from the statement read by the military official: "Our beautiful country, Gabon, has always been a haven of peace. Today, the country is going through a serious institutional, political, economic, and social crisis [...] We are therefore forced to admit that the organisation of the general elections of 26 August 2023 did not meet the conditions for a transparent, credible, and inclusive ballot so much hoped for by the people of Gabon. [...] Added to this is irresponsible and unpredictable governance, resulting in a continuing deterioration in social cohesion, with the risk of leading the country into chaos […] People of Gabon, we are finally on the road to happiness. May God and the spirits of our ancestors bless Gabon. Honour and loyalty to our homeland.”

Bongo, his family and a few close advisors were arrested at his home in Libreville. Some gunshots were heard as crowds were deterred from breaking into the former president's mansion. Inside the house, the Bongo family were unharmed by military personnel. They were all arrested for their involvement in fraudulent government procedures and placed under immediate house arrest. Suitcases full of Central African Francs were also recovered which may have been stashed campaign funds by the Bongo family. Whilst under house arrest, Ali Bongo took to social media to call for his supporters to protest his removal and to reinstate him as President of Gabon. Following this video post, the Bongo Family had their phones confiscated. Those arrested were:

• Ali Bongo [Former President]- Detained 
• Noureddin Bongo Valentin [President Bongo's Oldest Son & Advisor]- Detained
• Sylvia Valentin [Wife of President Bongo]- Charged with Money Laundering, Receiving Stolen Goods, Forgery and Fraud
• Richard Auguste Onouviet [President of the National Assembley]- Charged with High Treason, Misappropriation of Public Funds, Organised International Financial Embezzlement, Forgery, Falsification of the President's Signature, Active Corruption and Drug Trafficking
• Ian Ghislian Ngoulou [Presidential Chief of Staff]- Charged with High Treason, Misappropriation of Public Funds, Organised International Financial Embezzlement, Forgery, Falsification of the President's Signature, Active Corruption and Drug Trafficking
• Mohamed Ali Saliou [Deputy Chief of Staff]- Charged with High Treason, Misappropriation of Public Funds, Organised International Financial Embezzlement, Forgery, Falsification of the President's Signature, Active Corruption and Drug Trafficking
• Jessye Ella Ekogha [Presidential Spokesperson]- Charged with High Treason, Misappropriation of Public Funds, Organised International Financial Embezzlement, Forgery, Falsification of the President's Signature, Active Corruption and Drug Trafficking
• Unnamed Presidential Advisor- Charged with High Treason, Misappropriation of Public Funds, Organised International Financial Embezzlement, Forgery, Falsification of the President's Signature, Active Corruption and Drug Trafficking
• Two Officials in Bongo's Affiliated Party, the Gabonese Democratic Party- Charged with High Treason, Misappropriation of Public Funds, Organised International Financial Embezzlement, Forgery, Falsification of the President's Signature, Active Corruption and Drug Trafficking

The military appointed Brigadier General Brice Oligui as the new interim president of Gabon whilst they sought to form a transitional government. Oligui was the leader of the Republican Guard, Gabon's security force and Presidential guard. Oligui is no stranger to politics, with him being a close advisor to Ali Bongo's father Omar Bongo. He was met with celebration, being carried through the streets by Gabonese citizens upon his appointment. In an interview with a French publication, Oligui spoke about the discontentment felt by the Gabonese people and that he would lead the new Committee for the Transition and Restoration of Institutions, a committee that would create an established, functioning Government. He said that reconstructing these institutions would be done quickly, but proper due diligence would be taken to avoid the pitfalls of corruption. He also stated that Bongo was officially retired from politics.

Gabonese citizens celebrating the removal of Bongo

In the weeks after Bongo's removal, the country returned to normality with borders being reopened, internet services restored to normal and curfews being phased out. In the months following Oligui has stuck to his promise and has slowly begun building up a transitional government cabinet. In November, he announced that elections for a new President would be held in August 2025. As for Bongo, he was released from confinement and allowed to leave the country. It was revealed that the former President was suffering from major health complications and that he needed to leave the country to seek treatment. Bongo received treatment abroad and returned to his residence in Libreville where he now lives.

The Coup in Gabon highlights the previous failings of African Democracies. Whereby a corrupt group of individuals could deprive an entire nation of its wealth. Greed, corruption and power had blinded Bongo, forcing him to commit illegal acts to stay in power. His ousting was celebrated widely in Gabon and it remains unclear if he will stand trial for his alleged crimes.

To read the initial reactions and analyses as the Gabonese Coup unfolded, check out our first article reporting on it: https://visionmilitarynews.blogspot.com/2023/08/the-ongoing-unrest-coup-in-gabon.html

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The Post-Coup Pro-Russian Movement Spreading Through Niger

After the alleged coup that occurred on the 26th of July, it seems support for Russia has spread throughout the country. The largest pro-Russian demonstration took place in the capital of Niamey, where hundreds took to the street displaying Russian flags. This outpouring of support for Russia appears to be reflecting the values of the alleged new leader of the country, General Abdourahamane Tchiani. 

Previous President, Mohamed Bazoum was an ally of many Western nations, including France. Bazoum's relationship was so close with France that the European nation had a military base in Niger. French armed forces would also cooperate with Nigerien forces when fighting extremists. The new pro-Russian stance adopted by Niger follows in the footsteps of many other African nations who seek aid from the Wagner Group. 

Members of this pro-Russian movement are not only siding with Russia because of security, but also because they distrust the French Government. Citizens see them as a force that exploits the resources of Niger for their gain. Niger is the seventh largest exporter of uranium in the world, something that France takes advantage of. Whilst the West is harvesting resources in their nation, most Nigerien citizens live in poverty, with two in five people living on just two dollars a day. 

Nigerien Security Forces Dispersing a pro-Russian Crowd

Throughout 2022, former President Bazoum banned French protests, after much public outrage directed at the country. Civil groups would form the M62 Coalition to protest against the rising costs of living, poor quality of life and the French forces stationed within the country. For the M62 Coalition and the plethora of other pro-Russian groups, they hope an alliance with Russia will bring with it more technology and better access to resources. 

This huge surge of pro-Russian movements may also indicate that Russia was behind the coup. That is according to Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian President. He took to social media to claim that the coup was another Russian attempt at disrupting global stability. In a statement made on the 31st of July, a spokesperson for Russia described the coup as, 'deeply concerning'. The only party who praised the coup was Wagner President, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Priogozhin said that the move is a step toward independence from the West. The Wagner Group has already been established as a force used by many other former-French, now pro-Russian West African countries, including Mali and Burkina Faso. The Wagner Group has not claimed responsibility for the coup. Further statements from the Russian Government called for restraint to be shown on all sides and hoped for a return to stability for the country of Niger. 

The UN's Monitor Report: Fighting Al Qaeda and Islamic State in Africa

On July 24th, the UN Security Council released a Monitor Report on Al Qaeda and Islamic State, updating the world on the ongoing fight against the two largest terror organisations. Though the report looks at multiple areas of the world, in this article we will solely focus on the developments made against the terror groups in the African continent. Updates from other continents will be covered in another article. 

North Africa

In the north of the continent, both terror groups were found to be at their weakest. In the past few years, major affiliate organisations in North Africa have been hit hard. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has moved into northern Mali. Islamic State affiliate, Jund al-Khilafah in Tunisia (JAK-T) is facing major financing issues. Following the deaths of many of its prominent members, JAK-T is believed to be hiding in the Samama Mountains in Tunisia. There are believed to be only fifteen members left of this group. 

In Morocco, there has been immense success in fighting these terror organisations. Counter-terror authorities have shut down five terrorist cells that were working with the Core Islamic State organisation or its affiliate in the Great Sahara (ISGS). In total, twenty-five people were arrested, with one cell having plans to rob banks across Morocco to fund IS terror operations.

In Libya, the fight against Islamic State has been frought with difficulty due to the affiliate's connections to organised crime. The affiliate, Islamic State in the Levant-Libya (ISIL-Libya), has close links to organised crime groups that control trafficking routes in the country. The report also suggests that ISIL-Libya are attempting to infiltrate local tribes to aid in recruitment, especially in the south of the country. One of the scariest things revealed by the report is that ISIL-Libya is focusing its efforts on recruiting chemists and scientists in hopes of committing more sophisticated attacks. The group has around three hundred to five hundred members and is currently based in southern Libya, where they are free from Government intervention. The Government in Libya is still unstable and does not have full control over the entire country. The south, and some central regions, are absent from any Government or authority. Their close relationships with organised criminals have allowed them to reorganise themselves in the Fezzan Province. The UN Report also indicates that ISIL-Libya may have training camps in Fezzan, where they train fighters going to West Africa and the Sahel. 

Despite the reorganisation of the group, Libyan authorities have dismantled several terror cells. Most notably, an engineer was arrested when he was attempting to sabotage gas pipelines using armed drones. More concerning, was the handbook retrieved whilst arresting the engineer. The book contained instructions on how to create poison and biological weapons. It is believed these plans come directly from the ISIL Core.

Intelligence gathering against the group has been diligent and thorough, with the structure of the organisation being known. ISIL-Libya is believed to be divided into four sub-groups each specialising in different areas of terror operation. The sub-groups consist of a bombmaking team, a security team, fighters and a military commission. 

Al Qaeda has also entrenched itself in southern Libya. Much like the Islamic State in the south, Al Qaeda uses its position in southern Libya to support its affiliates in the Sahel. The report also indicates that ISIL-Libya and Al-Qaeda in southern Libya collaborate and share resources. Al Qaeda has a much smaller force of only one hundred and fifty to three hundred fighters in southern Libya. Most of these fighters are moving through the area to countries like Niger, Mali and Sudan. It is also believed that these operations are aided by the Tuareg, a semi-nomadic, ethnic group in southern Libya. Intelligence also suggests that Libyan terror groups are using the instability in Sudan to transport fighters to and from West Africa.

Libyan Counter-terror Forces

In Egypt, the Al Qaeda-aligned group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM) have been nearly destroyed by counter-terror forces. According to the UN Report, local and core structures of the terror organisation have been largely disbanded. The last major attack by the group occurred in December 2022 and is viewed as an act of desperation, with the group's total members estimated to be in the tens or low hundreds. The group's activities in the Sinai Peninsula have been heavily affected by Egypt's investment in local infrastructure and community outreach. Where local communities once acted as potential recruitment sites for the group, now they are aligned with Egypt's Government. 

West Africa 

In West Africa, affiliate groups play an instrumental role in creating instability. As it becomes more difficult to communicate with the faltering core groups, local affiliates' autonomy is the biggest terror threat in West Africa. One group in particular, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam Wal-muslimin (JNIM), currently poses the biggest threat to West African nations. Previously, the group were contained in Mali, but now it seems they have ramped up operations in Burkina Faso. It's believed the increase in operations is being done to apply pressure on local authorities during negotiations. With the escalation of the group's tactics, it seems the once Al Qaeda-affiliated group is now distancing itself from the core organisation. Not only is it straying from Al-Qaeda's core doctrine, but also separating itself from local affiliated groups. In battle, JNIM do not fight under the Al Qaeda flag, but under their own banner. JINM's new terror campaign in Burkina Faso has brought with it many issues for the group. Since JNIM encompasses a number of local fighters, usually beliefs and agendas conflict with one another creating tension within the organisation. 

Despite expanding as an organisation, it seems as if JNIM can not compete with the Islamic State in the Great Sahara (ISGS), the IS affiliate in West Africa. The Tri-Border area between Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali has become a warring ground for terror organisations. JNIM has suffered major losses at the hands of ISGS, despite fighting alongside Tuareg Militias in the area. It is important to note that these losses for JNIM in border areas do not reflect the group's control further West. Intelligence suggests that Mali's capital is encircled by JNIM, allowing them full control of the entire area up to the southern border. Through local battalions, JNIM can control local political and security disputes. Mali's weak military is also unable to properly fight back against the terror group. The report also implies that the expanded presence of the Wagner Group has done little to combat the influence of JNIM. From these controlled positions in Mali, JNIM can effectively launch attacks in Burkina Faso and the southern Sahel. 

The strongest of these JNIM battalions is the Katiba Macina, a force which acts almost autonomously from the rest of the JNIM organisation. The Katiba Macina are most active in Burkina Faso, where the force takes advantage of the instability created by locals, making it hard to distinguish between JNIM advances or just community clashes. They also work closely with the rebel group Ansarul Islam. With their most powerful battalion in Burkina Faso, JNIM has a commanding presence over authorities. JNIM's desire to expand to the southern border of Burkina Faso has also created spillover terrorism in regions of Benin, Togo and Niger.

JNIM Fighters in the Sahel

Unlike Al Qaeda affiliates, ISGS remain dedicated to the Core organisation of the Islamic State. The IS affiliate has had some major setbacks with leading members being killed by International forces and by the JNIM. The leadership of ISGS is primarily Arab, with some Fulani deputies. Most of the affiliate's fighters are of Fulani descent. The report believes that this creates a huge potential for infighting and internal descension within the affiliate group. The predominantly Fulani fighting force of ISGS has inadvertently restricted the group's expansion. Many of the Fulani fighters of ISGS do not want to participate in fratricide, as most of the Katiba Macina are also of Fulani descent. This and the fact that ISGS fighters are stretched thin across multiple fronts make the affiliate's advances a lot slower than first expected. Niger seems to be ISGS' new prime target, with multiple attacks taking place across northern regions of the country. These attacks aim to strengthen their supply and recruitment routes from Nigeria. 

Central and Southern Africa

We will start this section by looking at the ongoing situation in Mozambique, where the Islamic State-affiliated terror organisation Ahlu Sunna Wal-Jama (ASWJ) continues its campaign. ASWJ are a smaller force of around one hundred and eighty to two hundred fighters. Despite their size, they carry out attacks relentlessly. Since January, the UN Report states that nearly sixty-five members have been killed. Even though this was a major blow to the terror group, displaced fighters would form small terror cells to continue carrying out attacks. Mozambique and South African Development Community counter-terror forces have launched numerous attacks on the group, targeting their leadership. These have been a success with an overall decrease in terror attacks and civilian deaths.

One way ASWJ is attempting to survive is through inroads with local communities. Specifically trying to forge relationships with farmers and small businesses. The UN Report believes that this is being done in an attempt to sustain the group economically. Despite being an affiliate group of IS, there is no evidence to suggest that ASWJ is taking orders from the Core organisation. Most of the foreign fighters for the group come from surrounding African nations, like Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a joint operation between the army and Ugandan forces continues to take place against the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). Operation Sujaa, as it is known, has been incredibly successful. ADF bases have been raided, over four hundred fighters have been killed, eighty-one were arrested and just over one-hundred and fifty-one abductees were freed. The most notable success of Operation Sujaa was the assassination of Mulalo Seguja, the leader of the ADF's political faction. 

The success of the counter-terror operations has not stopped the ADF's attacks. In the eastern region of North Kivu, the ADF used a large IED to kill sixteen civilians and injure sixty others. The IED was the biggest made by the ADF. The device is believed to have weighed anywhere from seven to ten kilograms. These large explosives seem to be used by a specific ADF General, named Abwakasi. It is thought that over five hundred civilians had been killed by the ADF in the past six months. It is also believed that the ADF has an overall size of one thousand five hundred to two thousand fighters. The group has pledged allegiance to the Islamic State, but there is no evidence they are taking orders from the terror organisation.

East Africa

One of the biggest counter-offensives going on in the continent of Africa right now is the one against Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Airstrikes and raids against leading members have been extremely successful. Leaders of the financial wing of the terror group have been targeted to curb the massive revenue they pull in from extortion. The report estimates that the group collects $100 million per year. The terror group is believed to have between seven thousand to twelve thousand members. 

Retaliatory attacks from Al-Shabaab have occurred, mainly against members of ATMIS, the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia. Just a few months ago, five hundred Al-Shabaab fighters attacked a Ugandan ATMIS military base. ATMIS, Somali and US forces plan on advancing further south as the counter-offensive against the group continues. These southern areas, specifically Middle and Lower Juba, are key locations for the terror group. It is expected that the severity of the fighting will increase, as Al-Shabaab desperately defend these important positions.

Intelligence also suggests that there is a small Islamic State presence in Somalia. The small force of around one hundred to two hundred fighters is located in Puntland. The report suggests the group is struggling to expand due to constant attacks by Al-Shabaab. In January, Islamic State in Somalia was hit hard after one of their chief finance officers was killed by the US. This hurt the group's massive network of financial hubs that they have across Africa. One aspect of the Islamic State in Somalia that the report focused on was the Al-Karrar Office, a financial hub that sends money to other affiliate groups. Some member states believe that the Al-Karrar Office is the financial backbone of the Islamic State, whilst others claim these numbers are overestimated. These other member states believe that the al-Furqan Office in West Africa is the real financial backbone of the group. 

ATMIS Soldiers in Somalia

Many member states also fear that terror groups will take advantage of the current instability in Sudan. Specifically, Islamic State. Since 2019, there has been an IS terror cell in the country led by Abu Bakr Al-Iraqi. Orders from the IS Core tasked the IS leader with creating a terror cell. The cell is believed to be made up of one hundred to two hundred members. Its main purpose seems to be a logistical one, though many member states fear this will change. The report also indicates that Al-Iraqi has set up several fake investment/money-transfer businesses registered in Sudan and Türkiye. Al-Iraqi has also made substantial investments in Sudanese businesses. 

The Ongoing Coup in Niger: What We Know

News has just broken that the President of Niger has been removed from power. Sources from within the nation report that the military is holding President Mohamed Bazoum in the presidential palace. Colonel Amadou Abdramane, surrounded by officers, read a statement declaring that the takeover is occurring due to the worsening security within the country. We previously reported that Boko Haram fighters were strengthening their forces in Niger, after being repelled from Niger by the stronger Islamic State of the Great Sahara. Since then, it appears more Islamic State fighters have been conducting attacks in the country, leading to a major security crisis. 

Colonel Abdramane also declared the country is on a nationwide lockdown, with all borders closed and a curfew being instated. In addition to this, the Colonel warned other nations to not get involved, stating that the situation is under control. This coup comes as a blow to the former French colony, as Bazoum was the first democratically elected president in the nation's history. His potential ousting from power is a strike against democracy in West Africa which; has seen six other coups since 2020. 

It is unclear whether the coup was successful or not, as of yet. A successful coup will come as a major blow to Western nations, that are actively fighting jihadism in Western Africa. Niger was a close ally of many European nations including France and Germany. Just last year, France moved many of its forces into Niger, after talks broke down with the Mali Government. Just this April, Germany announced a plan to improve Niger's armed forces. A successful coup would also be disastrous for the United States, who send hundreds of millions of dollars to the country to boost security capabilities. 

The situation in Niger is still unknown. Some unconfirmed reports on social media say that the Presidential Guards are behind the coup. It's believed the presidential palace and neighbouring Government building are being occupied by said guards. Military vehicles are currently blocking off all entrances to the building. So far, it seems the Presidential Guard does not have the support of the country's military. Bazoum's supporters tried to get close to the palace but guardsmen opened fire to disperse the crowd. The official Twitter account for the presidency declared that the guards were taking part in an 'anti-republican' demonstration. 

Once again, it is not known whether the coup has been successful or not. Another unconfirmed report from social media states that the Presidential Guards are alone in their occupation of the palace and that no other security service is involved. 

Benin: The Victim of Spillover Terrorism

Spillover Terrorism is a phenomenon in which terrorism in one country gradually spreads into a neighbouring nation. One place where this is particularly evident is the West African nation of Benin, which shares borders with some of the most terror-stricken countries on the continent. One group that has spilt over from neighbouring Niger and Nigeria is the Islamic State of the Greater Sahara (ISGS). The most affected area by this spillover terrorism is the Alibori Department. On the 17th of April, the Alibori Department witnessed its most horrific attack when ISGS fighters conducted a nighttime raid on the Malanville police headquarters. According to TRAC Terrorism (2023), this attack marks the beginning of further IS campaigns in Benin. The Alibori Department has seemingly become an operational hub for ISGS.

Boko Haram's New Recruitment Base in Niger 

[23/03/2023] 

In recent times, the terror organisation Boko Haram has been pushed out of its home country of Nigeria. Not just from strong Government intervention, but also from the Islamic States in the West African Province (ISWAP) group. Due to these pushbacks, Boko Hrama has found itself a new recruiting base in the neighbouring country of Niger. In this article, we will look at the battle between Boko Haram and ISWAP Organisation. In addition, we will look at the group's new base of operations in the Republic of Niger. 

A Photo of a Boko Haram Attack in 2020 [Source: Al Jazeera]

The Decline of Boko Haram

Boko Haram and ISWAP were once one united group, mainly operating in Northeastern Nigeria. It was not until 2016 that the group split. Some remained with Boko Haram, whilst others joined the new Islamic State Province; the Islamic State in the West African Province. Gradually, ISWAP became more and more of a threat to Boko Haram and the citizens of Nigeria. ISWAP has expanded and infiltrated kidnapping gangs to the North West of the country. Last year, they claimed more attacks than ever before, especially around the Lake Chad area. (Jones, 2023) Not only did Boko Haram suffer major losses in their battle with the Islamic State, but also with the Nigerian military. 

The Nigerian Military with a captured Toyota Gun Truck [Source:Vanguardngr]

In the opening weeks of 2023, there have been intense clashes between Boko Haram and the Islamic State in the Sambisa Forest of Nigeria. Not only were these two terror groups fighting here, but also the Nigerian Military. On March 26th, Nigerian forces raided six Boko Haram camps, killing an unspecified number of its members. Crucial camps in the Lake Chad area were raided and destroyed, loosening the group's control of the area. In addition to the raids and killing of terrorist operatives, the military also recovered a converted Toyota gun truck. These raids were part of Operation Hadin Kai, a large offensive against terrorist groups in the north of the country. (Marima, 2023) In addition to this military victory, over the past few years, Boko Haram has suffered major losses, not in battle but through surrender. According to Nigerian Chief of Defence Staff, General Lucky Irabor, reported by Ozioruva Aliu (2023), "between July 2021 to May 2022 alone, no fewer than 51,828 Boko haram and their family members have surrendered, out of which 13,360 are fighters". These surrenders were incentivised by Operation Safe Corridor, which offered Boko Haram members training and other opportunities to reintegrate with society. This would have a major blow on the organisation, not only was morale at an all-time low, but it demonstrated to the Nigeration population that Government counter-terror operations were extremely effective. With significant losses on the battlefield, membership decreasing and the rising power of rival terror groups, it was clear that Boko Haram's time in Nigeria was numbered. So, it was not a surprise to the media that the group have started to build a new recruitment centre in the neighbouring country of Niger. 

Recruitment Foundations in Niger

Following the failures of Boko Haram in Nigeria, it was clear that the group needed to build a new recruitment base. So, it was hardly surprising when reports came out that Boko Haram had started building training centres in the town of Dinallahi, in Southeastern Niger. In this small village, the group have started to build hangars to act as extremist education centres for local children. Gradually, as Boko Haram entered this area, the rates of kidnapping and violence has risen significantly. 

In addition to the new potential recruits, this area is also important for other terror groups. This stretch of Niger acts as an important gateway for other groups to get to northern and Eastern African countries. If Boko Haram can asset control of this area, they can reestablish some control over their former territory. Also, having this control over such an important area can help the group regain their prestige. No longer, are they a group suffering major losses on all fronts, now they are dominant over a crucial area. (Maina, 2023) Fortunately for the people of Niger, the Nigeran military is actively fighting back against the group at the Nigerian border. The military had launched multiple counter-terror operations in the Southeastern province of Diffa, against ISWAP. In March of 2023, the Nigeran military killed 20 Boko Haram fighters on the Nigerian-Niger border. On top of that, the military captured 83 others, these were mostly family members of Boko Haram members fleeing the Islamic State. (North Africa Post, 2023)

The Future of Boko Haram

Boko Haram are at a crossroads in its history. Many terrorist groups at this stage, either find a new country, where they can rebuild, or dissolve. This push into Niger is the group's new foundation to rebuild. The Nigerian and Nigerien Governments, need to continue their successful operations against Boko Haram. Despite successful operations, many still feel that the Nigerian Government could do more to protect them. These security issues around Boko Haram and Islamic State are important issues to candidates in the ongoing Nigerian Presidential election. Continued efforts from Nigerian counter-terrorist forces are vital in stopping the group. For the Nigerien tactical forces, guarding the border and raiding established Boko Haram outposts in the country is incredibly important. Stopping Boko Haram's control over this area could also stop the spread of terrorism throughout the continent. If such a significant territory was to be controlled by counter-terrorism forces, then the spread of terrorist groups and fighters north and westward could be stopped. 

Also important is the rapid growth of ISWAP. Stopping Boko Haram is one important piece of the puzzle, but so is stopping ISWAP. It would be very easy for Islamic State to replace Boko Haram in their control over the north of Nigeria. Counter-terrorist forces need to threaten both groups, to remove the area from any threat of terror at all. Looking at the ongoing counter-terror operations, it's clear that both Governments are dedicated to stopping the actions and growth of both groups. 

We will continue to keep posting updates on Boko Haram's presence in Niger, as well as updates on ISWAP in Nigeria. 

References

Aliu, O. (2023). https://www.vanguardngr.com/2023/03/irabor-at-edo-varsity-founders-day-51828-boko-haram-fighters-surrender-in-18-months-cds/. [online] Vanguard Nigeria. Available at: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2023/03/irabor-at-edo-varsity-founders-day-51828-boko-haram-fighters-surrender-in-18-months-cds/ [Accessed 27 Mar. 2023].

Jones, M. (2023). Nigeria election 2023: Has Buhari tackled Boko Haram threat? BBC News. [online] 18 Feb. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-64667959 [Accessed 27 Mar. 2023].

Maina, M. (2023). Boko Haram establishes recruitment base in Niger Republic. [online] Daily Post Nigeria. Available at: https://dailypost.ng/2023/03/22/boko-haram-establishes-recruitment-base-in-niger-republic/ [Accessed 27 Mar. 2023].

Marama, N. (2023). Troops raid 6 Boko Haram camps in Sambisa forest, kill many terrorists. [online] Vanguard Nigeria. Available at: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2023/03/troops-raid-6-boko-haram-camps-in-sambisa-forest-kill-many-terrorists/ [Accessed 27 Mar. 2023].

The North Africa Post. (2023). Niger’s army eliminates 20 Boko Haram militants near border with Nigeria – The North Africa Post. [online] Available at: https://northafricapost.com/66320-nigers-army-eliminates-20-boko-haram-militants-near-border-with-nigeria.html [Accessed 27 Mar. 2023].

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