The UN's Monitor Report: Fighting Al Qaeda and Islamic State in Africa

On July 24th, the UN Security Council released a Monitor Report on Al Qaeda and Islamic State, updating the world on the ongoing fight against the two largest terror organisations. Though the report looks at multiple areas of the world, in this article we will solely focus on the developments made against the terror groups in the African continent. Updates from other continents will be covered in another article. 

North Africa

In the north of the continent, both terror groups were found to be at their weakest. In the past few years, major affiliate organisations in North Africa have been hit hard. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has moved into northern Mali. Islamic State affiliate, Jund al-Khilafah in Tunisia (JAK-T) is facing major financing issues. Following the deaths of many of its prominent members, JAK-T is believed to be hiding in the Samama Mountains in Tunisia. There are believed to be only fifteen members left of this group. 

In Morocco, there has been immense success in fighting these terror organisations. Counter-terror authorities have shut down five terrorist cells that were working with the Core Islamic State organisation or its affiliate in the Great Sahara (ISGS). In total, twenty-five people were arrested, with one cell having plans to rob banks across Morocco to fund IS terror operations.

In Libya, the fight against Islamic State has been frought with difficulty due to the affiliate's connections to organised crime. The affiliate, Islamic State in the Levant-Libya (ISIL-Libya), has close links to organised crime groups that control trafficking routes in the country. The report also suggests that ISIL-Libya are attempting to infiltrate local tribes to aid in recruitment, especially in the south of the country. One of the scariest things revealed by the report is that ISIL-Libya is focusing its efforts on recruiting chemists and scientists in hopes of committing more sophisticated attacks. The group has around three hundred to five hundred members and is currently based in southern Libya, where they are free from Government intervention. The Government in Libya is still unstable and does not have full control over the entire country. The south, and some central regions, are absent from any Government or authority. Their close relationships with organised criminals have allowed them to reorganise themselves in the Fezzan Province. The UN Report also indicates that ISIL-Libya may have training camps in Fezzan, where they train fighters going to West Africa and the Sahel. 

Despite the reorganisation of the group, Libyan authorities have dismantled several terror cells. Most notably, an engineer was arrested when he was attempting to sabotage gas pipelines using armed drones. More concerning, was the handbook retrieved whilst arresting the engineer. The book contained instructions on how to create poison and biological weapons. It is believed these plans come directly from the ISIL Core.

Intelligence gathering against the group has been diligent and thorough, with the structure of the organisation being known. ISIL-Libya is believed to be divided into four sub-groups each specialising in different areas of terror operation. The sub-groups consist of a bombmaking team, a security team, fighters and a military commission. 

Al Qaeda has also entrenched itself in southern Libya. Much like the Islamic State in the south, Al Qaeda uses its position in southern Libya to support its affiliates in the Sahel. The report also indicates that ISIL-Libya and Al-Qaeda in southern Libya collaborate and share resources. Al Qaeda has a much smaller force of only one hundred and fifty to three hundred fighters in southern Libya. Most of these fighters are moving through the area to countries like Niger, Mali and Sudan. It is also believed that these operations are aided by the Tuareg, a semi-nomadic, ethnic group in southern Libya. Intelligence also suggests that Libyan terror groups are using the instability in Sudan to transport fighters to and from West Africa.

Libyan Counter-terror Forces

In Egypt, the Al Qaeda-aligned group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM) have been nearly destroyed by counter-terror forces. According to the UN Report, local and core structures of the terror organisation have been largely disbanded. The last major attack by the group occurred in December 2022 and is viewed as an act of desperation, with the group's total members estimated to be in the tens or low hundreds. The group's activities in the Sinai Peninsula have been heavily affected by Egypt's investment in local infrastructure and community outreach. Where local communities once acted as potential recruitment sites for the group, now they are aligned with Egypt's Government. 

West Africa 

In West Africa, affiliate groups play an instrumental role in creating instability. As it becomes more difficult to communicate with the faltering core groups, local affiliates' autonomy is the biggest terror threat in West Africa. One group in particular, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam Wal-muslimin (JNIM), currently poses the biggest threat to West African nations. Previously, the group were contained in Mali, but now it seems they have ramped up operations in Burkina Faso. It's believed the increase in operations is being done to apply pressure on local authorities during negotiations. With the escalation of the group's tactics, it seems the once Al Qaeda-affiliated group is now distancing itself from the core organisation. Not only is it straying from Al-Qaeda's core doctrine, but also separating itself from local affiliated groups. In battle, JNIM do not fight under the Al Qaeda flag, but under their own banner. JINM's new terror campaign in Burkina Faso has brought with it many issues for the group. Since JNIM encompasses a number of local fighters, usually beliefs and agendas conflict with one another creating tension within the organisation. 

Despite expanding as an organisation, it seems as if JNIM can not compete with the Islamic State in the Great Sahara (ISGS), the IS affiliate in West Africa. The Tri-Border area between Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali has become a warring ground for terror organisations. JNIM has suffered major losses at the hands of ISGS, despite fighting alongside Tuareg Militias in the area. It is important to note that these losses for JNIM in border areas do not reflect the group's control further West. Intelligence suggests that Mali's capital is encircled by JNIM, allowing them full control of the entire area up to the southern border. Through local battalions, JNIM can control local political and security disputes. Mali's weak military is also unable to properly fight back against the terror group. The report also implies that the expanded presence of the Wagner Group has done little to combat the influence of JNIM. From these controlled positions in Mali, JNIM can effectively launch attacks in Burkina Faso and the southern Sahel. 

The strongest of these JNIM battalions is the Katiba Macina, a force which acts almost autonomously from the rest of the JNIM organisation. The Katiba Macina are most active in Burkina Faso, where the force takes advantage of the instability created by locals, making it hard to distinguish between JNIM advances or just community clashes. They also work closely with the rebel group Ansarul Islam. With their most powerful battalion in Burkina Faso, JNIM has a commanding presence over authorities. JNIM's desire to expand to the southern border of Burkina Faso has also created spillover terrorism in regions of Benin, Togo and Niger.

JNIM Fighters in the Sahel

Unlike Al Qaeda affiliates, ISGS remain dedicated to the Core organisation of the Islamic State. The IS affiliate has had some major setbacks with leading members being killed by International forces and by the JNIM. The leadership of ISGS is primarily Arab, with some Fulani deputies. Most of the affiliate's fighters are of Fulani descent. The report believes that this creates a huge potential for infighting and internal descension within the affiliate group. The predominantly Fulani fighting force of ISGS has inadvertently restricted the group's expansion. Many of the Fulani fighters of ISGS do not want to participate in fratricide, as most of the Katiba Macina are also of Fulani descent. This and the fact that ISGS fighters are stretched thin across multiple fronts make the affiliate's advances a lot slower than first expected. Niger seems to be ISGS' new prime target, with multiple attacks taking place across northern regions of the country. These attacks aim to strengthen their supply and recruitment routes from Nigeria. 

Central and Southern Africa

We will start this section by looking at the ongoing situation in Mozambique, where the Islamic State-affiliated terror organisation Ahlu Sunna Wal-Jama (ASWJ) continues its campaign. ASWJ are a smaller force of around one hundred and eighty to two hundred fighters. Despite their size, they carry out attacks relentlessly. Since January, the UN Report states that nearly sixty-five members have been killed. Even though this was a major blow to the terror group, displaced fighters would form small terror cells to continue carrying out attacks. Mozambique and South African Development Community counter-terror forces have launched numerous attacks on the group, targeting their leadership. These have been a success with an overall decrease in terror attacks and civilian deaths.

One way ASWJ is attempting to survive is through inroads with local communities. Specifically trying to forge relationships with farmers and small businesses. The UN Report believes that this is being done in an attempt to sustain the group economically. Despite being an affiliate group of IS, there is no evidence to suggest that ASWJ is taking orders from the Core organisation. Most of the foreign fighters for the group come from surrounding African nations, like Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a joint operation between the army and Ugandan forces continues to take place against the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). Operation Sujaa, as it is known, has been incredibly successful. ADF bases have been raided, over four hundred fighters have been killed, eighty-one were arrested and just over one-hundred and fifty-one abductees were freed. The most notable success of Operation Sujaa was the assassination of Mulalo Seguja, the leader of the ADF's political faction. 

The success of the counter-terror operations has not stopped the ADF's attacks. In the eastern region of North Kivu, the ADF used a large IED to kill sixteen civilians and injure sixty others. The IED was the biggest made by the ADF. The device is believed to have weighed anywhere from seven to ten kilograms. These large explosives seem to be used by a specific ADF General, named Abwakasi. It is thought that over five hundred civilians had been killed by the ADF in the past six months. It is also believed that the ADF has an overall size of one thousand five hundred to two thousand fighters. The group has pledged allegiance to the Islamic State, but there is no evidence they are taking orders from the terror organisation.

East Africa

One of the biggest counter-offensives going on in the continent of Africa right now is the one against Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Airstrikes and raids against leading members have been extremely successful. Leaders of the financial wing of the terror group have been targeted to curb the massive revenue they pull in from extortion. The report estimates that the group collects $100 million per year. The terror group is believed to have between seven thousand to twelve thousand members. 

Retaliatory attacks from Al-Shabaab have occurred, mainly against members of ATMIS, the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia. Just a few months ago, five hundred Al-Shabaab fighters attacked a Ugandan ATMIS military base. ATMIS, Somali and US forces plan on advancing further south as the counter-offensive against the group continues. These southern areas, specifically Middle and Lower Juba, are key locations for the terror group. It is expected that the severity of the fighting will increase, as Al-Shabaab desperately defend these important positions.

Intelligence also suggests that there is a small Islamic State presence in Somalia. The small force of around one hundred to two hundred fighters is located in Puntland. The report suggests the group is struggling to expand due to constant attacks by Al-Shabaab. In January, Islamic State in Somalia was hit hard after one of their chief finance officers was killed by the US. This hurt the group's massive network of financial hubs that they have across Africa. One aspect of the Islamic State in Somalia that the report focused on was the Al-Karrar Office, a financial hub that sends money to other affiliate groups. Some member states believe that the Al-Karrar Office is the financial backbone of the Islamic State, whilst others claim these numbers are overestimated. These other member states believe that the al-Furqan Office in West Africa is the real financial backbone of the group. 

ATMIS Soldiers in Somalia

Many member states also fear that terror groups will take advantage of the current instability in Sudan. Specifically, Islamic State. Since 2019, there has been an IS terror cell in the country led by Abu Bakr Al-Iraqi. Orders from the IS Core tasked the IS leader with creating a terror cell. The cell is believed to be made up of one hundred to two hundred members. Its main purpose seems to be a logistical one, though many member states fear this will change. The report also indicates that Al-Iraqi has set up several fake investment/money-transfer businesses registered in Sudan and Türkiye. Al-Iraqi has also made substantial investments in Sudanese businesses. 

The End of the United Nations Peace Mission in Mali

After a vote held at the end of June, the UN Security Council has decided to withdraw peacekeeping forces from Mali. Previously, Mali's military junta denounced the peacekeeping forces stating that they caused more issues than they stopped. This refusal to work with UN forces was the final nail in the coffin of the UN's mission in Mali, as it would be unprecedented to continue a mission without the cooperation of the host nation. The UN's Security Council Vote formerly put an end to the peacekeeping mission. 

To the many European nations participating in the peacekeeping mission, the end of the peacekeeping missions marks the start of Mali's new alliance with Russia. The Russian mercenary company, the Wagner Group, has a large presence in Africa protecting regimes from attempted coups. With the recent events involving the Wagner Group and the Russian government, it is uncertain whether the Wagner Group will aid Mali's junta. Despite the uncertainty, Mali's government is taking a step toward democracy with elections in the country being held just a few weeks ago. 

Many security experts think that believe that the end of the peacekeeping mission in Mali leaves the country open to Islamic extremism. Previous rebel groups were promised a role in constitutional conversations under a UN agreement. The withdrawal from the UN leaves the groups involved in the Azawad Movements with no peaceful way to negotiate with the government, which will likely lead to another rebellion. Experts also believe that Mali's military is simply not equipped to deal with the rampant extremism within the country, with Bloomberg describing the armed forces as "ramshackle". Many believe that the military junta will struggle to hold onto control, especially now they have distanced themselves from Western allies. 

The UN Withdrawal from Mali: Can the Country Remain Stable?

On the 16th of June, the military junta in Mali called for the withdrawal of all UN troops from the nation. The mission, scheduled to end at the end of the month, has created more unrest according to many Malians. Citizens of the West African country feel that United Nations troops have worsened the terror crisis during their ten-year-long campaign. Despite Mali's Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Doip calling for the immediate withdrawal of UN troops at a UN peace conference in New York, a vote to extend the mission's length is still on the agenda at the 30th June Security Council Meeting. Even if the resolution passes, the Chief of the UN's Mission in Mali, El Ghassim Wane, claimed that the mission would be virtually impossible without the cooperation of the country's government. These demands come at a crucial time in the country's history, with elections being held on Sunday, 18th June.

The response from UN forces and groups within Mali has been mixed. One of the most vocal critics of Mali's call for withdrawal is Germany. The country, with over one thousand troops deployed in Mali, remains committed to the planned 2024 withdrawal. Officials in Berlin say the calls for withdrawal from the Malian military government are politically motivated, as the African nation strengthens its relationship with Russia. The Russia-affiliated Wagner Group has also been extremely active in the country.

Everyday citizens of Mali have mixed views on the calls for withdrawal. The UN Mission in Mali is more than just a militaristic force, with many of the fifteen thousand troops deployed in the country serving in logistical roles. After bombings from Islamic extremists, UN troops would assist in rebuilding efforts as well as protecting important libraries housing treasured documents. However, many feel that the UN's role in Mali is not proactive enough. People perceive them as a purely defensive force, only acting after terror incidents. Despite this, many in the country's capital, Timbuktu, do see the usefulness of the forces, which protect the city from major terror incidents. The UN mission in Mali also brings an economic boost, with fifteen thousand well-paid workers in the country. Communities where the UN is active experience economic boom periods. Citizens also fear that the withdrawal of UN troops will allow Islamic extremists and rebels to wreak havoc in the country. Significant progress has been made in peace talks with rebels and extremists. The UN, in conjunction with the Algerian Government, has helped mediate peace talks between the Malian Government and the Coordination of Azawad Movements, a coalition of rebels and Arab nationalist organisations. As the military government in Mali moves towards opening the polls, these groups feel left out of constitutional discussions. In December, the groups pulled out of prearranged agreements overseen by the UN, declaring that they will only rejoin these agreements if they are renegotiated by a neutral party. Now, with talks of the government no longer desiring UN assistance, citizens fear that peaceful negotiations with these groups will not be possible, potentially resulting in a civil war.

Terror In Mali: The Terror Resurgents and a Military Massacre

Still from a Video of the Attack Aftermath [Source: Africa News]

A resurgence of terror has occurred in the African nation of Mali amid a UN investigation into the unlawful killing of civilians. On 23rd April, eighty-eight Jihadists launched bombing attacks on Mali's Savare Airport. Around five in the morning, bombs exploded, destroying multiple buildings and resulting in thirteen deaths. The area is not only an airport but also contains buildings belonging to the nearby military base. In addition to the thirteen deceased, three of whom were soldiers, sixty-one people were injured. In an interview (Africa News, 2023), one resident of Savare recounted the day of the attack, "We heard noises after the prayer, around 5:30 am, 5:40 am [...] Some people thought that a building had collapsed but came to ask us for help at the station. We went to the camp to inform the commander. We also alerted the civil protection. Around 6:00 am, the authorities arrived, and together we extracted the injured and dead. It was really difficult." No group has come forward to claim responsibility for the attacks, but many believe that this large-scale attack is a sign that terror will return to the nation.

Since 2020, the Malian Government began to distance itself from the West and turned to Russia's Wagner Group to aid in counter-terror operations. Mali's Junta Government is under close scrutiny due to an ongoing human rights investigation. In operations against terrorists last year, it was alleged that the Malian Army, along with unidentified Western fighters, killed five hundred unarmed villagers. The massacre being investigated is alleged to have occurred on 27th March of last year when Malian and Russian helicopters descended on the town of Moura. The villagers began to flee as the military forces opened fire. Around five hundred civilians were killed and thrown into ditches. Witnesses to this attack immediately spoke out, triggering the UN to launch a fact-finding mission to Mali, which was blocked multiple times. An internal investigation by Mali's Junta found that all those killed were confirmed terrorists. In a UN Report released on 12th May, a year after the massacre, it was found that the government had violated the Human Rights Act. A spokesman for Mali, Abdoulaye Maiga, claimed that the UN's decision was made to destabilise the Malian Government. He said, "No civilian from Moura lost their life during the military operation. Among the dead, there were only terrorist fighters, and all those arrested were handed over to the gendarmerie". (Inquirer, 2023) This UN report is the dawn of a difficult period in Mali. Not only will the report have huge ramifications on the international stage but also comes at a time when radical jihadism is growing rapidly.

Reference list

AfricaNews and Churm, P. (2023). Blasts in Mali kill and injure dozens amid resurgence of ‘terrorist incidents’. [online] Africanews. Available at: https://www.africanews.com/2023/04/23/blasts-in-mali-kill-and-injure-dozens-as-government-fears-resurgence-of-terrorist-incident/ [Accessed 14 May 2023].

Reuters (2023). Mali rejects UN report on alleged execution of 500 villagers by troops. [online] INQUIRER.net. Available at: https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1769094/mali-rejects-un-report-on-alleged-execution-of-500-villagers-by-troops [Accessed 14 May 2023].

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