The UN's Monitor Report: Fighting Al Qaeda and Islamic State in Africa

On July 24th, the UN Security Council released a Monitor Report on Al Qaeda and Islamic State, updating the world on the ongoing fight against the two largest terror organisations. Though the report looks at multiple areas of the world, in this article we will solely focus on the developments made against the terror groups in the African continent. Updates from other continents will be covered in another article. 

North Africa

In the north of the continent, both terror groups were found to be at their weakest. In the past few years, major affiliate organisations in North Africa have been hit hard. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has moved into northern Mali. Islamic State affiliate, Jund al-Khilafah in Tunisia (JAK-T) is facing major financing issues. Following the deaths of many of its prominent members, JAK-T is believed to be hiding in the Samama Mountains in Tunisia. There are believed to be only fifteen members left of this group. 

In Morocco, there has been immense success in fighting these terror organisations. Counter-terror authorities have shut down five terrorist cells that were working with the Core Islamic State organisation or its affiliate in the Great Sahara (ISGS). In total, twenty-five people were arrested, with one cell having plans to rob banks across Morocco to fund IS terror operations.

In Libya, the fight against Islamic State has been frought with difficulty due to the affiliate's connections to organised crime. The affiliate, Islamic State in the Levant-Libya (ISIL-Libya), has close links to organised crime groups that control trafficking routes in the country. The report also suggests that ISIL-Libya are attempting to infiltrate local tribes to aid in recruitment, especially in the south of the country. One of the scariest things revealed by the report is that ISIL-Libya is focusing its efforts on recruiting chemists and scientists in hopes of committing more sophisticated attacks. The group has around three hundred to five hundred members and is currently based in southern Libya, where they are free from Government intervention. The Government in Libya is still unstable and does not have full control over the entire country. The south, and some central regions, are absent from any Government or authority. Their close relationships with organised criminals have allowed them to reorganise themselves in the Fezzan Province. The UN Report also indicates that ISIL-Libya may have training camps in Fezzan, where they train fighters going to West Africa and the Sahel. 

Despite the reorganisation of the group, Libyan authorities have dismantled several terror cells. Most notably, an engineer was arrested when he was attempting to sabotage gas pipelines using armed drones. More concerning, was the handbook retrieved whilst arresting the engineer. The book contained instructions on how to create poison and biological weapons. It is believed these plans come directly from the ISIL Core.

Intelligence gathering against the group has been diligent and thorough, with the structure of the organisation being known. ISIL-Libya is believed to be divided into four sub-groups each specialising in different areas of terror operation. The sub-groups consist of a bombmaking team, a security team, fighters and a military commission. 

Al Qaeda has also entrenched itself in southern Libya. Much like the Islamic State in the south, Al Qaeda uses its position in southern Libya to support its affiliates in the Sahel. The report also indicates that ISIL-Libya and Al-Qaeda in southern Libya collaborate and share resources. Al Qaeda has a much smaller force of only one hundred and fifty to three hundred fighters in southern Libya. Most of these fighters are moving through the area to countries like Niger, Mali and Sudan. It is also believed that these operations are aided by the Tuareg, a semi-nomadic, ethnic group in southern Libya. Intelligence also suggests that Libyan terror groups are using the instability in Sudan to transport fighters to and from West Africa.

Libyan Counter-terror Forces

In Egypt, the Al Qaeda-aligned group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM) have been nearly destroyed by counter-terror forces. According to the UN Report, local and core structures of the terror organisation have been largely disbanded. The last major attack by the group occurred in December 2022 and is viewed as an act of desperation, with the group's total members estimated to be in the tens or low hundreds. The group's activities in the Sinai Peninsula have been heavily affected by Egypt's investment in local infrastructure and community outreach. Where local communities once acted as potential recruitment sites for the group, now they are aligned with Egypt's Government. 

West Africa 

In West Africa, affiliate groups play an instrumental role in creating instability. As it becomes more difficult to communicate with the faltering core groups, local affiliates' autonomy is the biggest terror threat in West Africa. One group in particular, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam Wal-muslimin (JNIM), currently poses the biggest threat to West African nations. Previously, the group were contained in Mali, but now it seems they have ramped up operations in Burkina Faso. It's believed the increase in operations is being done to apply pressure on local authorities during negotiations. With the escalation of the group's tactics, it seems the once Al Qaeda-affiliated group is now distancing itself from the core organisation. Not only is it straying from Al-Qaeda's core doctrine, but also separating itself from local affiliated groups. In battle, JNIM do not fight under the Al Qaeda flag, but under their own banner. JINM's new terror campaign in Burkina Faso has brought with it many issues for the group. Since JNIM encompasses a number of local fighters, usually beliefs and agendas conflict with one another creating tension within the organisation. 

Despite expanding as an organisation, it seems as if JNIM can not compete with the Islamic State in the Great Sahara (ISGS), the IS affiliate in West Africa. The Tri-Border area between Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali has become a warring ground for terror organisations. JNIM has suffered major losses at the hands of ISGS, despite fighting alongside Tuareg Militias in the area. It is important to note that these losses for JNIM in border areas do not reflect the group's control further West. Intelligence suggests that Mali's capital is encircled by JNIM, allowing them full control of the entire area up to the southern border. Through local battalions, JNIM can control local political and security disputes. Mali's weak military is also unable to properly fight back against the terror group. The report also implies that the expanded presence of the Wagner Group has done little to combat the influence of JNIM. From these controlled positions in Mali, JNIM can effectively launch attacks in Burkina Faso and the southern Sahel. 

The strongest of these JNIM battalions is the Katiba Macina, a force which acts almost autonomously from the rest of the JNIM organisation. The Katiba Macina are most active in Burkina Faso, where the force takes advantage of the instability created by locals, making it hard to distinguish between JNIM advances or just community clashes. They also work closely with the rebel group Ansarul Islam. With their most powerful battalion in Burkina Faso, JNIM has a commanding presence over authorities. JNIM's desire to expand to the southern border of Burkina Faso has also created spillover terrorism in regions of Benin, Togo and Niger.

JNIM Fighters in the Sahel

Unlike Al Qaeda affiliates, ISGS remain dedicated to the Core organisation of the Islamic State. The IS affiliate has had some major setbacks with leading members being killed by International forces and by the JNIM. The leadership of ISGS is primarily Arab, with some Fulani deputies. Most of the affiliate's fighters are of Fulani descent. The report believes that this creates a huge potential for infighting and internal descension within the affiliate group. The predominantly Fulani fighting force of ISGS has inadvertently restricted the group's expansion. Many of the Fulani fighters of ISGS do not want to participate in fratricide, as most of the Katiba Macina are also of Fulani descent. This and the fact that ISGS fighters are stretched thin across multiple fronts make the affiliate's advances a lot slower than first expected. Niger seems to be ISGS' new prime target, with multiple attacks taking place across northern regions of the country. These attacks aim to strengthen their supply and recruitment routes from Nigeria. 

Central and Southern Africa

We will start this section by looking at the ongoing situation in Mozambique, where the Islamic State-affiliated terror organisation Ahlu Sunna Wal-Jama (ASWJ) continues its campaign. ASWJ are a smaller force of around one hundred and eighty to two hundred fighters. Despite their size, they carry out attacks relentlessly. Since January, the UN Report states that nearly sixty-five members have been killed. Even though this was a major blow to the terror group, displaced fighters would form small terror cells to continue carrying out attacks. Mozambique and South African Development Community counter-terror forces have launched numerous attacks on the group, targeting their leadership. These have been a success with an overall decrease in terror attacks and civilian deaths.

One way ASWJ is attempting to survive is through inroads with local communities. Specifically trying to forge relationships with farmers and small businesses. The UN Report believes that this is being done in an attempt to sustain the group economically. Despite being an affiliate group of IS, there is no evidence to suggest that ASWJ is taking orders from the Core organisation. Most of the foreign fighters for the group come from surrounding African nations, like Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a joint operation between the army and Ugandan forces continues to take place against the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). Operation Sujaa, as it is known, has been incredibly successful. ADF bases have been raided, over four hundred fighters have been killed, eighty-one were arrested and just over one-hundred and fifty-one abductees were freed. The most notable success of Operation Sujaa was the assassination of Mulalo Seguja, the leader of the ADF's political faction. 

The success of the counter-terror operations has not stopped the ADF's attacks. In the eastern region of North Kivu, the ADF used a large IED to kill sixteen civilians and injure sixty others. The IED was the biggest made by the ADF. The device is believed to have weighed anywhere from seven to ten kilograms. These large explosives seem to be used by a specific ADF General, named Abwakasi. It is thought that over five hundred civilians had been killed by the ADF in the past six months. It is also believed that the ADF has an overall size of one thousand five hundred to two thousand fighters. The group has pledged allegiance to the Islamic State, but there is no evidence they are taking orders from the terror organisation.

East Africa

One of the biggest counter-offensives going on in the continent of Africa right now is the one against Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Airstrikes and raids against leading members have been extremely successful. Leaders of the financial wing of the terror group have been targeted to curb the massive revenue they pull in from extortion. The report estimates that the group collects $100 million per year. The terror group is believed to have between seven thousand to twelve thousand members. 

Retaliatory attacks from Al-Shabaab have occurred, mainly against members of ATMIS, the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia. Just a few months ago, five hundred Al-Shabaab fighters attacked a Ugandan ATMIS military base. ATMIS, Somali and US forces plan on advancing further south as the counter-offensive against the group continues. These southern areas, specifically Middle and Lower Juba, are key locations for the terror group. It is expected that the severity of the fighting will increase, as Al-Shabaab desperately defend these important positions.

Intelligence also suggests that there is a small Islamic State presence in Somalia. The small force of around one hundred to two hundred fighters is located in Puntland. The report suggests the group is struggling to expand due to constant attacks by Al-Shabaab. In January, Islamic State in Somalia was hit hard after one of their chief finance officers was killed by the US. This hurt the group's massive network of financial hubs that they have across Africa. One aspect of the Islamic State in Somalia that the report focused on was the Al-Karrar Office, a financial hub that sends money to other affiliate groups. Some member states believe that the Al-Karrar Office is the financial backbone of the Islamic State, whilst others claim these numbers are overestimated. These other member states believe that the al-Furqan Office in West Africa is the real financial backbone of the group. 

ATMIS Soldiers in Somalia

Many member states also fear that terror groups will take advantage of the current instability in Sudan. Specifically, Islamic State. Since 2019, there has been an IS terror cell in the country led by Abu Bakr Al-Iraqi. Orders from the IS Core tasked the IS leader with creating a terror cell. The cell is believed to be made up of one hundred to two hundred members. Its main purpose seems to be a logistical one, though many member states fear this will change. The report also indicates that Al-Iraqi has set up several fake investment/money-transfer businesses registered in Sudan and Türkiye. Al-Iraqi has also made substantial investments in Sudanese businesses. 

United We Stand: The Collaborative Fight Against Insurgency in Mozambique

A Burned Village in Cabo Delgado [Source:Upstream Online]

The UN and US have pledged their support to the Mozambican Government after they called for support in their fight against violent extremism within the country. The country's Defence Minister Cristovao Chume has specifically asked for support in the Cabo Delgado region. Chume plans on coordinating a multi-national, multifaceted approach to combating violent extremism within the country. The country already has assistance from the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the US, European Union and United Nations forces. (Mangwiro,2023a) Even though this may seem like a trove of support, the country's President Filipe Nyusi has told the UN Peacebuilding Commission that more support was needed to fight insurgency in the region.

This plea for additional support was answered by the UN's Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. In a Security Council meeting, as reported by UN News (2023), Guterres said, "Just as terrorism drives people apart, countering it can bring countries together [...] The United Nations stands with Africa to end this scourge. Above all, it includes our ongoing close collaboration with the African Union (AU) and regional and sub-regional African organisations." The Council agreed on offering African nations struggling with terror, including Mozambique, a plethora of new relief, including preventative and legal help. It is also important to note that Nyusi, who was also present at the Security Council meeting, didn't just call for assistance for his own country, but also for increased aid in other African nations. In an address to the council he said, The expansion of terrorism is quite threatening, and it is driven by factors that vary from context to context. On one hand, radicalisation based on identity variables fuelled by intolerance and, on the other hand, the manipulation of socio-economic factors have accelerated recruitment to terrorist groups, particularly of the youth."

Nyusi also revealed the success of SADC counter-terror operations in the Cabo Delgado region. The nearly two-year-long operation, which is still ongoing, demonstrates the success of African Governmental cooperation, according to Nyusi. 

Almost a month after these United Nations meetings were held, the US State Department's Minister of Foreign Assistance, Dafna Rand, visited Mozambique and reiterated the US support in the fight against terror within the nation. She revealed that the US wanted to focus their support on local communities to ensure future security against insurgent attacks. She also reiterated the partnership between the US and Mozambique militaries, saying, "We also press to have a security partnership with the Mozambican forces, and we are working and training in cooperation on the defence and security side." Rand also stressed that their support will not just be militaristic but also infrastructural. The fight against terror starts with basic services such as local hospitals and schools. From that groundwork, subsequent counter-terror operations will be more successful. (Mangwiro, 2023c) This renewed support from the US was expected, with the companies EXXON Mobile and Total, having offshore gas developments in the country. In addition, the US is the country's biggest financial supporter with them giving the African nation over $560 million annually. 

The Importance of Local Fighters

In early April, laws were passed in Maputo, which allowed the formation of local militias to aid the Government in the fight against insurgency. Though they existed before, these laws will formalise the militias as a kind-of defence force for local communities. The laws also will give the militias more logistical and structural support. It is also hoped that these local militias will aid in the defence of crucial infrastructure. These militias are mostly made up of experienced fighters who have experience fighting the insurgents in Cabo Delgado. (Mangwiro, 2023c) Though it may seem like an outlandish idea to arm locals, it is important to remember the significance local fighters can have in the fight against terror. Most recently, in Somalia, politicians argued that future counter-offensive plans ignored local fighters, who were previously instrumental in demising the power of Al-Shabaab. 

Who are the Insurgents?

The insurgents who occupy the northern province of Cabo Delgado aren't exactly affiliated with any larger group. There are two likely candidates responsible for such wide-scale attacks. One is the Islamic State, which has claimed responsibility for many of the insurgency attacks in the province. However, it is also suspected there is another, lesser-known terror group operating in the region called Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jama, which took credit for the initial insurgency attacks. Wa-Jama was a paramilitary-terror organisation that was last active in 2019. The group was based in Somalia, however, these attacks in Cabo Delgado may suggest that the group is resurfacing in Mozambique. Just a few years ago in 2017, Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jama signed an agreement with the Somalian state of Galmudug, essentially integrating the group within the state's organised military force. (University, Stanford and California 94305, 2023) It is also possible that the small group that was active in the initial Cabo Delgado insurgency attacks were remnants of the group and later 're-branded' as a province of the Islamic State.

What is known, is the devastation of the Cabo Delgado insurgency conflicts. It's estimated that there have been over five thousand casualties and nearly one million people displaced after their villages were destroyed by insurgent forces. 

Reference list

Mangwiro, C. (2023a). Mozambican Government Asks for Help Fighting Terrorism. [online] VOA. Available at: https://www.voanews.com/a/mozambican-government-asks-for-help-fighting-terrorism-/7030484.html [Accessed 8 May 2023].

Mangwiro, C. (2023b). Mozambique Legalizes Local Militias to Help Fight Northern Insurgents. [online] VOA. Available at: https://www.voanews.com/a/mozambique-legalizes-local-militias-to-help-fight-northern-insurgents/7039006.html [Accessed 8 May 2023].

Mangwiro, C. (2023c). US Reiterates Support for Mozambique’s Fight Against Cabo Delgado Militants. [online] VOA. Available at: https://www.voanews.com/a/us-reiterates-support-for-mozambique-s-fight-against-cabo-delgado-militants-/7065538.html#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20is%20reiterating%20its [Accessed 8 May 2023].

news.un.org. (2023). UN underlines support for Africa’s fight against terrorism | UN News. [online] Available at: https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/03/1135117.

University, S., Stanford and California 94305 (n.d.). MMP: Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama. [online] cisac.fsi.stanford.edu. Available at: https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/mappingmilitants/profiles/ahlu-sunna-wal-jama#text_block_17431 [Accessed 8 May 2023].

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