A Year in Counter Terrorism: The Counter-Offensive Against Al-Shabaab in Somalia

2023 has been a monumental year in the fight against terrorism in Somalia. For nearly two decades, the Somali Government has been fighting the terror group Al-Shabaab. This year, a second phase of a joint counter-offensive against the group was carried out. African Union, US, Somali, and other African nation troops came together to strike back against Al-Shabaab. This year has seen two phases of the counter-offensive, the first dealing with Al-Shabaab in the central regions of the country and the second seeing allied militaries push into the heartlands of Al-Shabaab-controlled territory.

Phase One

Map of Clashes with Al-Shabaab from August 2022 [The Start of Phase One]

Phase One of this counter-offensive began in August of 2022. This opening phase consisted of consolidating military power in northern regions and pushing Al-Shabaab out of the country's central regions. In these opening months, the Somali Government began to rally the support of local clans and militias active in the fight against Al-Shabaab. Previously, these clans and local forces were left out of military activity. The failings of the Somali Government in the past had radically changed their views on these local forces. It was apparent that without these local clans' support, successfully defeating Al-Shabaab would not have been possible. The Government also found key targets in Central Somalia to focus their attacks on. In particular, numerous Al-Shabaab strongholds in central Somalia were the main targets of this first phase.

As the nation entered 2023, the dimensions of the first phase had transformed radically. Political tensions within Somalia had ruptured ties to some of the local clans. An incident involving tax collection issues with some of these local clans caused them to no longer cooperate with Somalia's Government. This hampered this first phase enormously, as Al-Shabaab sought to negotiate with these local clans, to stop their resistance against them. The negotiations between the local fighters and Al-Shabaab occurred in the key areas of Hirshabelle and Galmudug. The lack of local clan support in these key areas, caused Somalia to turn to their international allies to aid them in continuing the counter-offensive.

These key allies would be instrumental in continuing, and eventually, ending this first phase successfully. Several neighbouring African nations have their own forces fighting Al-Shabaab, independent of the African Union. Many of these neighbouring countries have forces pledged to the African Union as well. African Union troops were instrumental in carrying out raids on towns in these central regions. The US would also be instrumental in aiding the Somali Government. Particularly, the Air Force would prove incredibly useful in eliminating key members of Al-Shabaab. Somalia's own military and security forces were also key in eliminating Al-Shabaab from these central regions and protecting northern areas from retaliatory attacks.

From March to April of 2023, the final push of the first phase would eliminate Al-Shabaab's dominating presence in these central regions. The victories in this period would not be decisive, and continued action in the area to prevent Al-Shabaab from re-embedding themselves in these areas would continue until August. As a consequence of this victory in the Hirshabelle State, Al-Shabaab operatives would move over the border into Kenya and continue conducting activity there. Other operatives, moved further south to the Lower Shabelle Regions. These areas have long been under the occupation of Al-Shabaab. The second phase, which officially began in August of 2023, planned on targeting the last remnants of Al-Shabaab in these southern areas. These areas are critical to Al-Shabaab's operations and would be vehemently protected by them. As a result, the violence and severity of the attacks doubled as Somalia entered its second stage of the counter-offensive.

Phase Two

Map of Clashes with Al-Shabaab from March to April [The Start of Phase Two]

Somalia targeted the areas of Lower Shabelle and Galgaduud where it had a strong presence of local fighters, sympathetic to the Government's cause. Al-Shabaab also had members from the same local clan, which they had negotiated with months prior. The clan in question, the Hawiye Clan is the largest in Somalia and was experiencing its own turmoil. A political disagreement split the group, and sub-clans who desired the protection of Sharia Law sided with Al-Shabaab. Those who remained in the clan pledged their allegiances to the Somali government. On August 25th, this second phase would begin with the Somali military capturing the occupied town of Ceel Buur, the last remaining Al-Shabaab stronghold in the Galmudug region. Just as quickly as they had occupied the town, they evacuated it, fearing a strong terrorist retaliation. The town was immediately recaptured by terrorist forces. Giving Al-Shabaab such a tactical advantage allowed them to recapture key areas that were taken in the first phase of the counter-offensive. A large portion of the forces on both sides were made up of local clans and militias.

The losses in Galmudug and the reliance on clans caused a political outcry from many in Somalia. The Government had recently requested more support from their African allies and the additional support was coming slowly. They argued that local clans were the only way they could keep fighting Al-Shabaab. As for the US, they were still assisting in the counter-offensive but had now shifted their focus from ground assaults to targeting key members of the terrorist organization's financial hierarchy. Politicians were now actively speaking out against the territorial losses and poor planning of the campaign, including the county's President Ahmed Mohamed Islam. Many blamed the leader of Somalia's military for the tactical blunders made in the counter-offensive. As the second phase faltered, more political discourse continued and military action halted. Politicians began to claim that local clans were not invested in the fight against Al-Shabaab and shouldn't be part of the counter-offensive at all. During September, political in-fighting by the state government in Galmudug would see little progress being made on the offensive front. In fact, the political infighting allowed Al-Shabaab to refortify and retake multiple key locations.

As the year comes to a close, fighting remains focused around Ceel Buur and Ceel Dheer, locations that were once under the Somalian Government's control but were vacated after the military retreat. With Al-Shabaab able to strengthen their position it remains a point of contentious fighting. The most successful Somali advances were made in the Middle Juba Region. As the year comes to a close, it seems the second phase has not been as successful as the first. With military activities coming to a halt and fighting becoming deadlocked, the Somali government is at an impasse. Al-Shabaab is struggling, not with fighting but with in-fighting between leadership. The US' plan to eliminate high-ranking members of the group has been incredibly successful with financial chiefs and group leaders being killed by airstrikes. Ambitious terror operatives are now fighting for control of these positions within the group.

Map of Al-Shabaab Internal Clashes

In October, in-fighting between Al-Shbaab peaked, especially in the hotly contested region of Middle Juba. There have been four reported fights attributed to Al-Shabaab in that month alone. Before 2023, there has only ever been one reported. Diriye is the current leader of the Al-Shabaab organisation, which he assumed in 2014 after his predecessor was killed by a US airstrike. His leadership was surprising to many as it was expected that prominent member Mahad Warsame would take control of the group. Warsame was given the role of Deputy. In 2022 Diriye fell into bad health and was expected to die. Upon his death, Warsame would assume control of the group. Diriye's health issues weren't as bad as first thought and he survived. His survival seemingly tore apart the group with Warsame and Diriye clashing over multiple issues. The crackdown on the group's financial wing also wounded the group significantly. It was expected that Al-Shabaab would bring in tens of millions of dollars every year, but with the seizure of over 200 bank accounts, funds for the group were restricted. Warsame's multiple attempts to undermine Diriye's power resulted in fighters loyal to the group's leader clashing with his men. In response to this repeated undermining of his leadership, Dirye announced that he would pass leadership to another prominent member of the group, not Warsame.

Map of Clashes with Al-Shabaab from August to September [During Phase Two]

Summary

The counter-offensive against Al-Shabaab has reached its peak and its valleys this year. From a coordinated counter-insurgency initiative to a failing military offensive plagued by political infighting. Despite this, the African Union hopes to exit the country by 2024, leaving the country secure enough for Somalia's military to handle. Though the counter-offensive lost momentum in September and October, the deteriorating state of Al-Shabaab's leadership and infrastructure offers a unique opportunity for them to capitalize on. It will be interesting to see if politicians and clan disputes can be put aside to tackle the common enemy or if political differences will continue to hinder the offensive. With Al-Shbaab's leadership fractured and the group turning on itself, it is the ideal time for the military to act.

Tags: Somalia counter-terrorism, Al-Shabaab updates, Horn of Africa conflict, African Union intervention, Terrorism in Somalia, Military offensive 2023, Al-Shabaab leadership, Political infighting in Somalia, African military cooperation, Terrorist group dynamics, Security situation in Somalia, Anti-terrorism efforts, Al-Shabaab insurgency, International military support, Somali government strategy, Military successes and setbacks, Al-Shabaab financial crackdown, Political discourse in Somalia, Counter-insurgency developments, Somalia security updates 2023

Turning the Tide: The Second Stage of the Counteroffensive against Al-Shabaab in Somalia 

We have previously reported on the multiple triumphs that the Somali government has achieved in their counteroffensive against Al-Shabaab. Now, it seems that the counteroffensive is entering its second stage. With the presence of the militant group reduced in the northern regions, the Somali army is now deploying into the central and lower regions of the country. These regions are pivotal for Al-Shabaab, both strategically and logistically. In the UN monitoring report, they expect that the fighting in these regions would become intense, with Al-Shabaab desperately defending their most valuable territories.

On the 18th of July, it was reported that Somalia has begun its push into the central regions. Joined by their ATMIS and US counterparts, the Somali army began setting up base camps across the HirShabelle and Galmadug states. This initial push into these territories has resulted in the death of over 3,000 Al-Shabaab militants, according to reports. With this mass deployment of the Somali army across the area, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has also requested additional non-ATMIS troops from Djibouti, Kenya, and Ethiopia to fortify the Somali lines.

Intelligence gathering on the group has also become much easier. Three years ago, the Somali High Court ruled that it was illegal for the government to tap the phones of suspected Al-Shabaab financiers. Now, after a long appeal, that verdict has been overturned. The Somali Government can actively track suspected leaders of the group through text and cell phone data. Defense CS Duale asked for the continued support of Somalis in the fight against terror. After the verdict, Duale called out the terror group directly. He said, 'I give a straightforward message to the leadership rank and file of Al-Shabaab. We will hunt you down using all the security apparatus at our disposal. We will work with other nations in IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) to hunt you down, even in Somalia, and get you. We will protect the territorial and sovereign integrity of our people.'

The Dulmi Diid Militia

In military operations, US, Somali, and ATMIS forces have seen continued success. US-backed operations on the 19th of July led to the death of over 100 Al-Shabaab fighters in the Middle Shabelle Region. A few days later, US airstrikes killed 5 more terror operatives. Local militias have also been invaluable in fighting the terror organization. In the southwest of the country, an armed militia calling themselves Dulmi Diid, meaning 'opposing the oppression,' has established itself. The group, mainly composed of ethnic Rahanwein individuals, is taking the fight to Al-Shabaab in their own territory. Dulmi Diid was formed to end the oppressive rule of Al-Shabaab over the lower regions. Al-Shabaab recently blockaded the city of Baidoa, leaving hundreds of people without fuel, water, and food. Dulmi Diid has been actively fighting against this blockade. The group isn’t just militaristic; they have also called for more cooperation between the national and local state governments. These collaborative military efforts are working wonders against the terror group. It is expected that by December 2024, these regions will be free from Al-Shabaab control.

While the second stage of the counteroffensive has been successful so far, Al-Shabaab is still carrying out attacks regularly. Al-Shabaab is incredibly effective at funding itself through extortion and taxation. According to the US State Department, the group pulls in nearly $120 million a year. It is thought that $24 million of this sum goes towards purchasing weapons from abroad. The rest goes to pay fighters and fund operations outside of the country. Additionally, it is believed that these funds are also used to pay foreign fighters from other African countries. Recently, men from Uganda and Tanzania were caught by security forces as they were traveling to an Al-Shabaab stronghold to join the group. Going after the financial structures of the terror group is a necessary part of this second stage. As mentioned previously, Somali courts have now allowed phone tapping and deeper surveillance against suspected financiers. At the end of July, President Mohamud met with Brian Nelson, the Under Secretary of the US Treasury for Financial Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. In the meeting, the successes of the Somali Government’s fight against financial crime were revealed. Over 250 Al-Shabaab-associated bank accounts were closed, and 70 money-wiring firms associated with the group were shut down. The US had also gathered a list of suspected financiers who were being surveyed and blacklisted from flights to the US. Restricting the group's finances would cripple the group, removing any incentive for foreign fighters to join and limiting the scale of their operations.

The UN's Monitor Report: Fighting Al Qaeda and Islamic State in Africa

On July 24th, the UN Security Council released a Monitor Report on Al Qaeda and Islamic State, updating the world on the ongoing fight against the two largest terror organisations. Though the report looks at multiple areas of the world, in this article we will solely focus on the developments made against the terror groups in the African continent. Updates from other continents will be covered in another article. 

North Africa

In the north of the continent, both terror groups were found to be at their weakest. In the past few years, major affiliate organisations in North Africa have been hit hard. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has moved into northern Mali. Islamic State affiliate, Jund al-Khilafah in Tunisia (JAK-T) is facing major financing issues. Following the deaths of many of its prominent members, JAK-T is believed to be hiding in the Samama Mountains in Tunisia. There are believed to be only fifteen members left of this group. 

In Morocco, there has been immense success in fighting these terror organisations. Counter-terror authorities have shut down five terrorist cells that were working with the Core Islamic State organisation or its affiliate in the Great Sahara (ISGS). In total, twenty-five people were arrested, with one cell having plans to rob banks across Morocco to fund IS terror operations.

In Libya, the fight against Islamic State has been frought with difficulty due to the affiliate's connections to organised crime. The affiliate, Islamic State in the Levant-Libya (ISIL-Libya), has close links to organised crime groups that control trafficking routes in the country. The report also suggests that ISIL-Libya are attempting to infiltrate local tribes to aid in recruitment, especially in the south of the country. One of the scariest things revealed by the report is that ISIL-Libya is focusing its efforts on recruiting chemists and scientists in hopes of committing more sophisticated attacks. The group has around three hundred to five hundred members and is currently based in southern Libya, where they are free from Government intervention. The Government in Libya is still unstable and does not have full control over the entire country. The south, and some central regions, are absent from any Government or authority. Their close relationships with organised criminals have allowed them to reorganise themselves in the Fezzan Province. The UN Report also indicates that ISIL-Libya may have training camps in Fezzan, where they train fighters going to West Africa and the Sahel. 

Despite the reorganisation of the group, Libyan authorities have dismantled several terror cells. Most notably, an engineer was arrested when he was attempting to sabotage gas pipelines using armed drones. More concerning, was the handbook retrieved whilst arresting the engineer. The book contained instructions on how to create poison and biological weapons. It is believed these plans come directly from the ISIL Core.

Intelligence gathering against the group has been diligent and thorough, with the structure of the organisation being known. ISIL-Libya is believed to be divided into four sub-groups each specialising in different areas of terror operation. The sub-groups consist of a bombmaking team, a security team, fighters and a military commission. 

Al Qaeda has also entrenched itself in southern Libya. Much like the Islamic State in the south, Al Qaeda uses its position in southern Libya to support its affiliates in the Sahel. The report also indicates that ISIL-Libya and Al-Qaeda in southern Libya collaborate and share resources. Al Qaeda has a much smaller force of only one hundred and fifty to three hundred fighters in southern Libya. Most of these fighters are moving through the area to countries like Niger, Mali and Sudan. It is also believed that these operations are aided by the Tuareg, a semi-nomadic, ethnic group in southern Libya. Intelligence also suggests that Libyan terror groups are using the instability in Sudan to transport fighters to and from West Africa.

Libyan Counter-terror Forces

In Egypt, the Al Qaeda-aligned group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM) have been nearly destroyed by counter-terror forces. According to the UN Report, local and core structures of the terror organisation have been largely disbanded. The last major attack by the group occurred in December 2022 and is viewed as an act of desperation, with the group's total members estimated to be in the tens or low hundreds. The group's activities in the Sinai Peninsula have been heavily affected by Egypt's investment in local infrastructure and community outreach. Where local communities once acted as potential recruitment sites for the group, now they are aligned with Egypt's Government. 

West Africa 

In West Africa, affiliate groups play an instrumental role in creating instability. As it becomes more difficult to communicate with the faltering core groups, local affiliates' autonomy is the biggest terror threat in West Africa. One group in particular, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam Wal-muslimin (JNIM), currently poses the biggest threat to West African nations. Previously, the group were contained in Mali, but now it seems they have ramped up operations in Burkina Faso. It's believed the increase in operations is being done to apply pressure on local authorities during negotiations. With the escalation of the group's tactics, it seems the once Al Qaeda-affiliated group is now distancing itself from the core organisation. Not only is it straying from Al-Qaeda's core doctrine, but also separating itself from local affiliated groups. In battle, JNIM do not fight under the Al Qaeda flag, but under their own banner. JINM's new terror campaign in Burkina Faso has brought with it many issues for the group. Since JNIM encompasses a number of local fighters, usually beliefs and agendas conflict with one another creating tension within the organisation. 

Despite expanding as an organisation, it seems as if JNIM can not compete with the Islamic State in the Great Sahara (ISGS), the IS affiliate in West Africa. The Tri-Border area between Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali has become a warring ground for terror organisations. JNIM has suffered major losses at the hands of ISGS, despite fighting alongside Tuareg Militias in the area. It is important to note that these losses for JNIM in border areas do not reflect the group's control further West. Intelligence suggests that Mali's capital is encircled by JNIM, allowing them full control of the entire area up to the southern border. Through local battalions, JNIM can control local political and security disputes. Mali's weak military is also unable to properly fight back against the terror group. The report also implies that the expanded presence of the Wagner Group has done little to combat the influence of JNIM. From these controlled positions in Mali, JNIM can effectively launch attacks in Burkina Faso and the southern Sahel. 

The strongest of these JNIM battalions is the Katiba Macina, a force which acts almost autonomously from the rest of the JNIM organisation. The Katiba Macina are most active in Burkina Faso, where the force takes advantage of the instability created by locals, making it hard to distinguish between JNIM advances or just community clashes. They also work closely with the rebel group Ansarul Islam. With their most powerful battalion in Burkina Faso, JNIM has a commanding presence over authorities. JNIM's desire to expand to the southern border of Burkina Faso has also created spillover terrorism in regions of Benin, Togo and Niger.

JNIM Fighters in the Sahel

Unlike Al Qaeda affiliates, ISGS remain dedicated to the Core organisation of the Islamic State. The IS affiliate has had some major setbacks with leading members being killed by International forces and by the JNIM. The leadership of ISGS is primarily Arab, with some Fulani deputies. Most of the affiliate's fighters are of Fulani descent. The report believes that this creates a huge potential for infighting and internal descension within the affiliate group. The predominantly Fulani fighting force of ISGS has inadvertently restricted the group's expansion. Many of the Fulani fighters of ISGS do not want to participate in fratricide, as most of the Katiba Macina are also of Fulani descent. This and the fact that ISGS fighters are stretched thin across multiple fronts make the affiliate's advances a lot slower than first expected. Niger seems to be ISGS' new prime target, with multiple attacks taking place across northern regions of the country. These attacks aim to strengthen their supply and recruitment routes from Nigeria. 

Central and Southern Africa

We will start this section by looking at the ongoing situation in Mozambique, where the Islamic State-affiliated terror organisation Ahlu Sunna Wal-Jama (ASWJ) continues its campaign. ASWJ are a smaller force of around one hundred and eighty to two hundred fighters. Despite their size, they carry out attacks relentlessly. Since January, the UN Report states that nearly sixty-five members have been killed. Even though this was a major blow to the terror group, displaced fighters would form small terror cells to continue carrying out attacks. Mozambique and South African Development Community counter-terror forces have launched numerous attacks on the group, targeting their leadership. These have been a success with an overall decrease in terror attacks and civilian deaths.

One way ASWJ is attempting to survive is through inroads with local communities. Specifically trying to forge relationships with farmers and small businesses. The UN Report believes that this is being done in an attempt to sustain the group economically. Despite being an affiliate group of IS, there is no evidence to suggest that ASWJ is taking orders from the Core organisation. Most of the foreign fighters for the group come from surrounding African nations, like Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a joint operation between the army and Ugandan forces continues to take place against the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). Operation Sujaa, as it is known, has been incredibly successful. ADF bases have been raided, over four hundred fighters have been killed, eighty-one were arrested and just over one-hundred and fifty-one abductees were freed. The most notable success of Operation Sujaa was the assassination of Mulalo Seguja, the leader of the ADF's political faction. 

The success of the counter-terror operations has not stopped the ADF's attacks. In the eastern region of North Kivu, the ADF used a large IED to kill sixteen civilians and injure sixty others. The IED was the biggest made by the ADF. The device is believed to have weighed anywhere from seven to ten kilograms. These large explosives seem to be used by a specific ADF General, named Abwakasi. It is thought that over five hundred civilians had been killed by the ADF in the past six months. It is also believed that the ADF has an overall size of one thousand five hundred to two thousand fighters. The group has pledged allegiance to the Islamic State, but there is no evidence they are taking orders from the terror organisation.

East Africa

One of the biggest counter-offensives going on in the continent of Africa right now is the one against Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Airstrikes and raids against leading members have been extremely successful. Leaders of the financial wing of the terror group have been targeted to curb the massive revenue they pull in from extortion. The report estimates that the group collects $100 million per year. The terror group is believed to have between seven thousand to twelve thousand members. 

Retaliatory attacks from Al-Shabaab have occurred, mainly against members of ATMIS, the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia. Just a few months ago, five hundred Al-Shabaab fighters attacked a Ugandan ATMIS military base. ATMIS, Somali and US forces plan on advancing further south as the counter-offensive against the group continues. These southern areas, specifically Middle and Lower Juba, are key locations for the terror group. It is expected that the severity of the fighting will increase, as Al-Shabaab desperately defend these important positions.

Intelligence also suggests that there is a small Islamic State presence in Somalia. The small force of around one hundred to two hundred fighters is located in Puntland. The report suggests the group is struggling to expand due to constant attacks by Al-Shabaab. In January, Islamic State in Somalia was hit hard after one of their chief finance officers was killed by the US. This hurt the group's massive network of financial hubs that they have across Africa. One aspect of the Islamic State in Somalia that the report focused on was the Al-Karrar Office, a financial hub that sends money to other affiliate groups. Some member states believe that the Al-Karrar Office is the financial backbone of the Islamic State, whilst others claim these numbers are overestimated. These other member states believe that the al-Furqan Office in West Africa is the real financial backbone of the group. 

ATMIS Soldiers in Somalia

Many member states also fear that terror groups will take advantage of the current instability in Sudan. Specifically, Islamic State. Since 2019, there has been an IS terror cell in the country led by Abu Bakr Al-Iraqi. Orders from the IS Core tasked the IS leader with creating a terror cell. The cell is believed to be made up of one hundred to two hundred members. Its main purpose seems to be a logistical one, though many member states fear this will change. The report also indicates that Al-Iraqi has set up several fake investment/money-transfer businesses registered in Sudan and Türkiye. Al-Iraqi has also made substantial investments in Sudanese businesses. 

The Counter-Offensive Against Al-Shabaab: Is it Successful? 

Kenyan Security Forces

In Somalia, the fight against terror rages on. All cylinders are firing as the US, African Union and Somali fighters strike back against the terror organisation, Al-Shabaab. The US airstrikes remain a pivotal asset to the Somali Government. Their repeated success has previously incapacitated a leading member of the group. More recently, it has targeted Al-Shabaab encampments in rural Somalia. One strike, near Afmadow, left ten terror operatives dead. That same day (July 9th 2023), 40 kilometres away from Afmadow, joint Kenyan-Somali forces raided an Al-Shabaab weapons depot. The facility, which also acted as a bomb-making factory, was overrun in the early morning. Allied airstrikes supported the coordinated military operation that left 40 militants dead. Not only were weapons and explosives recovered from the site, but also 200,000 Kenyan Shillings (£1080 as of 2023). 

On the 12th of July, another Somali-Kenyan joint operation raided an Al-Shabaab hideout in Weelmarow village. The raid eliminated 50 militants and captured the Finance Chief in charge of the Lower Yuba area. It seems the current plan to eradicate Al-Shabaab is to stop its funding. A few weeks ago, we reported that Finance Chiefs were targeted by Somali forces. With another eliminated this week, the group is not only losing soldiers but also its revenue streams.

The following day, on the 13th of July, Somali special forces raided multiple Al-Shabaab hideouts across the Shabelle Region. It has not been disclosed how many suspects were arrested, but it is known that multiple arrests were made. That same day, Kenyan security agencies arrested two Tanzanian men attempting to join Al-Shabaab. They were found with notebooks which directed them to Al-Shabaab hideouts in Somalia. Upon interrogation, the suspects revealed they were recruited to the group by handlers in Tanzania. This demonstrates that Al-Shabaab has a wider, terror recruitment network that spans East Africa, which has gone unaffected by the counter-offensive. 

A Burnt Car Following the Attacks in Mandera

Following the relentless raids, it seems Al-Shabaab rushed to retaliate. On the 14th of July, multiple groups of terrorists began launching attacks across Mandera County in Northern Kenya. The first group targeted the only telephone mast in the town of Iresuki, whilst the second group targeted the Jabibar Quick Response Unit camp. The third attacked the Kenyan military base in Elwak. The final group launched an attack on the Waragud Police station. The ambush left two police officers and a teacher dead. After the attacks, the groups burnt parked cars in the street. A joint Kenyan security force mobilised immediately after being notified of the attacks. So far, only two suspects have been arrested for their involvement in the attacks. The two men were found at a construction site with weapons and large amounts of cash, that were stolen during the Mandela County attacks. 

A follow-up coordinated attack occurred across all of Somalia al occurred. These attacks started when a suicide bomber attacked the Hodan District in Somalia's capital, Mogadishu. The Hodan District mostly housed military officers and their families. The attack injured two notable military leaders who had coordinated attacks against Al-Shabaab in the past. At the same time, militants attacked a security checkpoint in the Dayniile District of Mogadishu. They overrun the security forces stationed there and destroyed the checkpoint. 

In the Middle Shabelle, terrorists attacked an ATMIS (African Union Transition Mission in Somalia) base. Fortunately for the citizens of Somalia, ATMIS forces forced Al-Shabaab to retreat. In Lower Shabelle, IED attacks devasted local security forces. The number of casualties has not been released, but many fear it will be high. Further attacks occurred closer to the Kenyan border, with Al-Shabaab taking over the military base. Following an African Union protocol, The military base was handed back to Somali forces just a week ago. Experts believed that Somali forces could protect the area on their own. Now it sits under the control of terrorists.

Whilst continued success from Allied forces shows that Al-Shabaab can be easily combatted, the severity and unexpectedness of these retaliatory attacks demonstrate the power of the terror group. The summer counter-offensive has been successful on many fronts, but these attacks have been the biggest setback yet. The ongoing situation remains murky, with the full extent of the attacks not being revealed. It seems the following months of the counter-offensive will ramp up to curb subsequent, identical, nationwide attacks. 

Retaliatory Attacks From Al-Shabaab as Counter-Offensive Continues to Succeed

The Aftermath of an Al-Shabaab Attack [Source: New York Times]

In the past ten days, Al-Shabaab has carried out several retaliatory attacks in response to the ongoing summer counter-offensive. The largest of these attacks took place in the country's capital, Mogadishu, on Friday, June 9th. The terror group stormed the Pearl Beach Hotel, which is located near Lido Beach—a popular destination for Somalia's elite upper classes. Politicians, diplomats, and foreigners often visit this area, making it a prime target for Al-Shabaab. The situation was quickly brought under control by Somali Special Forces. Following the siege, six civilians were killed, and ten others were wounded.

Another incident occurred on the same day, involving a separate and devastating explosion that claimed the lives of twenty-seven people. However, this incident was not directly caused by Al-Shabaab. Citizens from the town of Muraale discovered unexploded ordnance in a nearby field. Thinking that the explosives were small, they used them to light cooking fires. Unfortunately, these explosives, believed to have been planted by Al-Shabaab, detonated, resulting in the deaths of twenty-seven individuals and injuring fifty more.

Earlier on that Friday, the Somali Government announced its intention to replace two thousand African Union soldiers with Somali forces. This move appears to be the reason behind the recent attacks. The transition signifies the success of the renewed counter-offensive and represents a step towards a more stable Somalia. The African Union's current plans aim to hand over all military positions to the Somali Government by 2024.

In a more recent attack in Nairobi, Kenya, Al-Shabaab operatives detonated multiple improvised explosive devices (IEDs), resulting in the deaths of eight police officers. These attacks were carried out in response to Kenya's involvement in ATMIS (African Union Transition Mission in Somalia), like many other African countries. Kenya has deployed troops to Somalia since 2011 and has experienced numerous bloody retaliatory attacks as a consequence.

While these retaliatory attacks have occurred, Somali, African Union and US forces continue to push forward in their fight against the terrorist group. Recently, the US has offered a five-million-dollar reward for information leading to the arrest of Abdullahi Osman Mohamed, a prominent bomb maker within Al-Shabaab. Mohamed, who sometimes goes by the alias Engineer Ismail, is also responsible for the group's media wing, known as al-kataib. This reward comes as Ahmed Umar, a former leading member of Al-Shabaab, faces legal proceedings in the US. Mohamed played a crucial advisory role to Umar, who was acting as the de-facto leader of the group. Million-dollar rewards have been placed on former leading members of the group, including Umar, and similar rewards are being offered for the capture of Mahad Karate, the group's chief finance officer, who remains at large

Ethiopian Forces Prevent Al-Shabaab Border Terror Attack

Al-Shabaab Terror Operatives

In the midst of the counter-offensive against Al-Shabaab, it's being reported that Ethiopian Forces along the border stopped a suicide attack from the group. The attackers were eliminated in the border town of Dallo, where an Ethiopian Military base is situated. According to Al-Jazeera (2023), two suicide attacks were planned, one targeting military equipment and a command post. Al-Shabaab's media claimed responsibility for the attacks, stating that the attacks were a response to Ethiopian Forces being part of the joint African Union counter-terror mission in Somalia. The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, or ATMIS, is a coalition force organized under the African Union. These attacks aren't unprecedented, with other Ethiopian military bases on the border being attacked last year. Just a few weeks ago, Al-Shabaab attacked a Ugandan military base in Bulo Marer, which left over fifty Ugandan soldiers dead.

This time, however, the attackers were stopped before the bombings could cause any major harm. Despite these attacks, Ethiopia, and ATMIS as a whole, remain poised to stop the Al-Shabaab threat. The mission hopes to restore stability to Somali forces by 2024. With the recent successes in the counter-offensives against the terror group, it seems that this goal will be achieved.

References

www.aljazeera.com. (n.d.). Ethiopia says it foiled al-Shabab attack near border with Somalia. [online] Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/7/ethiopia-says-it-foiled-al-shabab-attack-near-border-with-somalia [Accessed 10 Jun. 2023].

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Ugandan Forces Defeat Al-Shabaab & Recapture Occupied Villages

Not long ago, the Ugandan Forces with ATMIS (The African Transition Mission in Somalia) stationed at a military base in Bulo Marer faced an assault from Al-Shabaab forces. Car bombs, suicide bombers, and around eight hundred fighters bombarded the base early in the morning hours. The US, ATMIS, and Somali forces retaliated, recovering the base. It is now being reported by New Vision (2023) that the Uganda People's Defence Forces (UPDF) have recaptured Bulo Marer and other surrounding villages from Al-Shabaab's control. The Ugandan military forces faced resistance from Al-Shabaab snipers stationed around the villages. This recapture has brought with it a return to normalcy for Somali citizens in the area. Brigadier General Peter Omalo, the leader of the UPDF in the area, said in a statement, "We have combed the area to ensure no Al-Shabaab element is hiding and the road has been cleared of bombs. [...] As UPDF serving under the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, we remain committed to supporting a Somali-led peace and stability process as mandated by the African Union."

The current situation in Somalia is improving with African Union, Somali, and Western counter-terror offensives having tremendous success. Recently, group leaders have been wounded, killed, or have surrendered. This further progress into Al-Shabaab's territory is just another victory for counter-terror forces.

The Downfall of Al-Shabaab in Somalia

We last reported on the success of the renewed offensive against the terrorist organisation Al-Shabaab. Now, it seems that the counter-offensive is achieving tremendous success. In the past few weeks, the crumbling Al-Shabaab has suffered significant losses with the deaths of multiple high-profile group members. On Saturday, the 23rd of May, the US and Somali forces launched a collaborative assault on the region of Middle Juba, where a suspected Al-Shabaab headquarters was situated. Airstrikes from the US were launched on the town of Jilib, setting the stage for the Somali Army to launch a ground assault. After the intense airstrikes and raids, Al-Shabaab's leaders, Ahmed Diriye and Abu Ubaidah, released a video showcasing a previous meeting between several important members of the group, which took place from the 8th to the 15th of May. The group called this meeting 'The Jihad in East Africa' (Garowe Online, 2023). While the group tried to appear unfazed in the face of the rapidly approaching assault, this facade was quickly shattered when Al-Shabaab forces clashed with Somali counter-terror forces. The military had begun carrying out arrests in the town of Towfiq after a tip-off from villagers that an Al-Shabaab commander was hiding there. As security forces apprehended the leading Al-Shabaab operative, other members of the militant group attacked. Among these attackers was Al-Shabaab finance chief Mahad Aquadub. After the military fought off these attackers, Aquadub was shot, causing the terror chief to flee. While fleeing capture, he suffered a heart attack which resulted in his death. Four other militants were arrested following the attacks. These operatives have been linked to the planning of multiple terror attacks and are currently being held in Mogadishu (Garowe Online, 2023). Aquadub's death was a crushing blow for the group, as he was instrumental in collecting taxes for the organisation. As Al-Shabaab would occupy areas, they would coerce businesses and citizens into paying them taxes, which would go towards funding the group's operations. With Aquadub dead, the funding for the group has been greatly restricted. The financier was in charge of unlawful tax collection within the Galamadug Region.

The following day, the US released a preliminary report on the results of the airstrikes on Jilib. It was revealed by the Somali Ministry of Information that the airstrikes targeted leading Al-Shabaab member Osman Mohamed Abdi. Abdi was reportedly severely injured in the airstrikes. Somali state media stated, "Osman Mohamed Abdi [...] was wounded in a joint operation carried out by the National Army and international allies in Jilib. Abdi was responsible for smuggling foreign terrorists into the country and spreading propaganda to recruit fighters". (Garowe Online, 2023) Abdi's official title within the group was Head of External Operations. He had previously been the group's Head of Defense. Abdi is also directly linked to the 2016 El-Adde Attacks, which were the largest attacks on African peacekeepers on Somali soil, leaving more than two hundred Kenyan soldiers dead. In the following days, intelligence suggested that Abdi was critically injured and in an unconscious state. His condition is worsening by the day, and his death is seemingly imminent.

On the 26th of May, Al-Shabaab militants attacked a military base belonging to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) in Bulo Marer. The attacks began at around 5 am when cars filled with explosives and suicide bombers crashed into the base, which housed Ugandan soldiers. Following the explosions, a fierce firefight broke out between ATMIS forces, Somali forces, and Al-Shabaab militants. The fighting resulted in major losses for the terror group, although they did manage to seize some military equipment. However, this seizure was short-lived as ATMIS and US aerial units launched airstrikes on the captured equipment, destroying them in the process. Following the strikes, the remaining attackers fled. Al-Shabaab-owned media claimed that they had overrun the base, but Somali, ATMIS, and US sources declared that the situation is under control (IOL, 2023). Al-Shabaab is slowly being contained, and even their retaliatory attacks are failing, resulting in multiple casualties for them.

ATMIS Soldiers

By the 29th of May, the situation within the organisation was dire. This was most glaringly obvious when a leading member of the group surrendered and left the organisation. The man in question was Abdirahman Macalin Ahmed, a founding member of Al-Shabaab, who held several influential roles within the group, including as an advisor to the group's former leader. Ahmed was most active in the southern regions of Somalia, where he was in charge of extortion in the Lower Shabelle Region (Garowe Online, 2023). With all of these high-profile losses, it's clear that Al-Shabaab's grip on Somalia is rapidly slipping. The offensives by the African Union, US, and Somali military are clearly extremely effective. All of these losses have occurred in the past week alone. Going forward, as the summer counteroffensive intensifies, it is highly likely that we will witness further losses and possibly more surrenders from high-ranking members of the group. Clearly, with Ahmed surrendering and leaving the group, the organisation is in shambles. It looks as if it is the beginning of the end for Al-Shabaab.

 Somali and Western Fighters Push Back Against Al-Shabaab

A renewed Western offensive against terror in Somalia earlier this year has yielded impressive results. In January, the US donated weapons to Somali forces to aid in the fight against the terrorist group. In addition, the US has also aided in the training of the Danab, the country's elite counter-terror unit. In the last six months, western/Somali counter-offensives have been incredibly successful. The renewed push at the start of this year has caused the terror group to lose one-third of its territory, according to US Ambassador to Somalia, Larry Andre. 

Though these offences have been a success, Al-Shabaab has claimed they were actually a failure. According to an interview with the group's spokesperson, reported by VOA News, Ali Mohamoud Rage, the original plan was for the group to be eradicated after those six months. Though he claims this, the group has lost more than five hundred kilometres of territory. 

Despite the pushback of the group, the strategies and Western influence involved in such offensives have been questioned by others in the Somali Government. Many have called into question the solely militaristic strategy ignoring the ease of radicalisation for the group. Another reason people fear subsequent offences may fail is the Government favouring the Army over local forces, who were crucial in the first offence's success. Former Director of the National Intelligence and Security Agency, Abdullahi Mohamed Ali Sanaloshe believes that these important local fighters have been left out of the next phases of planning. Leaving out clans and smaller communities who have also fought against Al-Shabaab is a dangerous thing to do, especially if they were instrumental in the first offensive's success. Somali politicians have called for the implementation of social policies that focus on locals to curb Al-Shabaab's control. The opposition in Somalia believes that the presence of the Western military in the country is damaging and that closer ties to Russia were the way forward to counter Al-Shabaab. 

Vision Counterterrorism Newsletter [10/04/2023 to 17/04/2023]

Here is what happened this week in counter-terrorism!

Popular Mobilization Forces Securing the Syrian Border [Source: AFP]

More Truffle Hunting Deaths are Linked to ISIS

During the truffle hunting season in Syria's Hama countryside, hundreds have disappeared or been found murdered by ISIS. This week more truffle hunters have been killed by the terror group. The truffle trade is highly lucrative but dangerous with many willing to risk death for financial gain. This week 26 were killed by ISIS in an area they were previously ousted from. In 2019, the Syrian Defence Forces and US Coalition Forces drove out the group after weeks of intense fighting in the town of Baghouz. (NPASyria, 2023) With the recent spike in disappearances, it's likely that ISIS will return to this area or already have. These 26 victims are more in the group's countless already killed or captured. It is uncertain whether Syrian counter-terror forces and repel ISIS once again or if the area is doomed to fall under their control. 

From Discord to Jail: How the Ukraine Intelligence Leaker Was Caught

After a truckload of confidential US intelligence documents about the Ukraine counter-offensive was leaked authorities rushed to find the culprit. The files included maps, military information and statistics surrounding US secret service involvement in the conflict. It appears as if these documents were first shared on a gaming Discord server, named Thug Shaker Central. Discord, an app meant for gamers to communicate whilst playing, is a rather strange place for confidential documents to be leaked. Discord offers no encryption like Telegram or Whatsapp, it is rather a public place for a professional leaker to dump files. (Strohm et al, 2023) Quickly, it became apparent that the culprit behind this leak was not a professional. This ruled out the idea that a foreign government or enemy group leaked such a document. The lack of anonymity allowed for a suspect to be quickly apprehended.

Only a few days after the leak, twenty-one-year-old Jack Teixeira was arrested. Teixeira was a US Air National Guardsman stationed in Massachusetts, who had recently been promoted to the intelligence division. Teixeira's capture was aided by reporters at the New York Times. According to them, (Scheffler, 2023) Teixeira was meticulously tracked through his digital footprint. After the documents were found on the gaming Discord group, reporter Aric Toller began live-tweeting his findings, leading to the Discord server being deleted. Thankfully, a former member of the group reached out to Toller. This former member revealed that the user posting the leaks to Discord was not the original leaker and that the documents had been posted elsewhere first. This former member also revealed  All they had were the initials O. G. Other members refused to identify the user and with the chat logs deleted, more clues were needed to conclusively find the leaker. NYT reporters found the former members' Steam Profiles. Steam, a website dedicated to playing and buying games keeps extensive data on users' interactions and messages. Investigators were able to look into Steam's data to find all the people the former member had interacted with. They narrowed down their search to a user called jackdjdtex. From this user name, reporters found an Instagram account which led them to Jack Teixeira. 

Jack Teixeira 

Teixeira now faces up to fifteen years in prison for leaking classified information he had obtained from his job in the Air National Guard. Many are asking why From all the reports, Teixeira has always been someone looking for attention and shock. According to CNN (Hicken, 2023), Teixeira had been in trouble multiple times throughout high school due to racist and offensive comments he made. After the 2017 Las Vegas Mass Shooting, he wore a shirt displaying an AR-15. Even in his Steam Profile, the one which led to his arrest, showed him posing with an assault rifle. Former classmates found his obsession with the US and his nationalist views odd. Strangely, for such a nationalistic person, Teixeira had betrayed a country he loved so much. He appeared in a Boston District Courton Friday, where he gave no plea. 

Though Teixeira's action may seem bizarre, it has much broader implications for the war in Ukraine. These documents have already made it to Pro-Russian Telegram servers. The entire Spring Counter-offensive in Ukraine may now be in jeopardy because of Teixeira's actions. 

A Call to Arms: Somalia Call for Russian Support

The Somali Opposition Leader, Sied Abdi Nur, has called for Russian forces to deploy in the country to counter the Western Presence within the country. Abdi Nur is an opponent of Western terror invention within the country, he has often blamed them for the still prominent threat of terrorism within the country. Nur is not just a politician but also a former soldier, who fought alongside US forces in the Battle of Mogadishu, which saw heavy casualties on both sides. In an interview with Russian Publication Sputnik, reported by Al Mayadeen English (2023), Abdi Nur said, "Russia can even participate in Somalian politics and can win, and Somalia would be at peace because we have got a solution where Russia can win without the West. The West does not want my country to be in peace; they create chaos, people kill each other, continue this war". This comes as the country is still wrought with infrastructural and terror issues, as well as an embargo. Since the 1990s, the country has been stuck in a devastating civil war, which has had interventions from United Nations and African Union Peace Keepers. 

With the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, it's unlikely Russia will deploy troops in Somalia. Not just due to their priority being the invasion of Ukraine, but also because they are unlikely to cooperate with Western forces in any capacity. 

References

Al Mayadeen English (2023). Somalian opposition MP calls on Russia to deploy forces in Somalia. [online] Al Mayadeen English. Available at: https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/somalian-opposition-mp-calls-on-russia-to-deploy-forces-in-s [Accessed 18 Apr. 2023].

Hicken, B.E.G.W. (2023). Man arrested in connection with intel leak: ‘Actions speak louder than words’ | CNN Politics. [online] CNN. Available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/14/politics/jack-teixeira-profile/index.html [Accessed 17 Apr. 2023].

NPA Syria (2023). ISIS kills 26 truffle hunters in Syria’s Hama. [online] North press agency. Available at: https://npasyria.com/en/96570/ [Accessed 17 Apr. 2023].

Scheffler, M. (2023). Finding the Pentagon Leak Suspect. The New York Times. [online] 16 Apr. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/16/briefing/pentagon-leak-suspect.html [Accessed 18 Apr. 2023].

Strohm, C., McBride, C., Mostue, A. and Goal, P. (2023). US Charges 21-Year-Old for Taking, Leaking Classified Documents. Bloomberg.com. [online] 14 Apr. Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-14/us-charges-national-guardsman-over-classified-documents-leak [Accessed 17 Apr. 2023].