The Counter-Offensive Against Al-Shabaab: Is it Successful? 

Kenyan Security Forces

In Somalia, the fight against terror rages on. All cylinders are firing as the US, African Union and Somali fighters strike back against the terror organisation, Al-Shabaab. The US airstrikes remain a pivotal asset to the Somali Government. Their repeated success has previously incapacitated a leading member of the group. More recently, it has targeted Al-Shabaab encampments in rural Somalia. One strike, near Afmadow, left ten terror operatives dead. That same day (July 9th 2023), 40 kilometres away from Afmadow, joint Kenyan-Somali forces raided an Al-Shabaab weapons depot. The facility, which also acted as a bomb-making factory, was overrun in the early morning. Allied airstrikes supported the coordinated military operation that left 40 militants dead. Not only were weapons and explosives recovered from the site, but also 200,000 Kenyan Shillings (£1080 as of 2023). 

On the 12th of July, another Somali-Kenyan joint operation raided an Al-Shabaab hideout in Weelmarow village. The raid eliminated 50 militants and captured the Finance Chief in charge of the Lower Yuba area. It seems the current plan to eradicate Al-Shabaab is to stop its funding. A few weeks ago, we reported that Finance Chiefs were targeted by Somali forces. With another eliminated this week, the group is not only losing soldiers but also its revenue streams.

The following day, on the 13th of July, Somali special forces raided multiple Al-Shabaab hideouts across the Shabelle Region. It has not been disclosed how many suspects were arrested, but it is known that multiple arrests were made. That same day, Kenyan security agencies arrested two Tanzanian men attempting to join Al-Shabaab. They were found with notebooks which directed them to Al-Shabaab hideouts in Somalia. Upon interrogation, the suspects revealed they were recruited to the group by handlers in Tanzania. This demonstrates that Al-Shabaab has a wider, terror recruitment network that spans East Africa, which has gone unaffected by the counter-offensive. 

A Burnt Car Following the Attacks in Mandera

Following the relentless raids, it seems Al-Shabaab rushed to retaliate. On the 14th of July, multiple groups of terrorists began launching attacks across Mandera County in Northern Kenya. The first group targeted the only telephone mast in the town of Iresuki, whilst the second group targeted the Jabibar Quick Response Unit camp. The third attacked the Kenyan military base in Elwak. The final group launched an attack on the Waragud Police station. The ambush left two police officers and a teacher dead. After the attacks, the groups burnt parked cars in the street. A joint Kenyan security force mobilised immediately after being notified of the attacks. So far, only two suspects have been arrested for their involvement in the attacks. The two men were found at a construction site with weapons and large amounts of cash, that were stolen during the Mandela County attacks. 

A follow-up coordinated attack occurred across all of Somalia al occurred. These attacks started when a suicide bomber attacked the Hodan District in Somalia's capital, Mogadishu. The Hodan District mostly housed military officers and their families. The attack injured two notable military leaders who had coordinated attacks against Al-Shabaab in the past. At the same time, militants attacked a security checkpoint in the Dayniile District of Mogadishu. They overrun the security forces stationed there and destroyed the checkpoint. 

In the Middle Shabelle, terrorists attacked an ATMIS (African Union Transition Mission in Somalia) base. Fortunately for the citizens of Somalia, ATMIS forces forced Al-Shabaab to retreat. In Lower Shabelle, IED attacks devasted local security forces. The number of casualties has not been released, but many fear it will be high. Further attacks occurred closer to the Kenyan border, with Al-Shabaab taking over the military base. Following an African Union protocol, The military base was handed back to Somali forces just a week ago. Experts believed that Somali forces could protect the area on their own. Now it sits under the control of terrorists.

Whilst continued success from Allied forces shows that Al-Shabaab can be easily combatted, the severity and unexpectedness of these retaliatory attacks demonstrate the power of the terror group. The summer counter-offensive has been successful on many fronts, but these attacks have been the biggest setback yet. The ongoing situation remains murky, with the full extent of the attacks not being revealed. It seems the following months of the counter-offensive will ramp up to curb subsequent, identical, nationwide attacks.