Vision Counterterrorism Newsletter [27/03/2023 to 02/04/2023]
This is the Vision Weekly Counter Terrorism Newsletter. The main aim is to offer up a brief update on counter terror news, as well as updates to former stories. These newsletters supplement other articles written. So, even though topics may overlap, I hope that each can stand independently from one another.
Threat Level raised in Northern Ireland
Following the killing of a police officer in Northern Ireland, MI5 has decided to raise the threat level there from substantial to severe. A threat of an Irish Republican Army attack in Northern Ireland or the rest of the UK is high according to the authorities. (BBC, 2023) On the 26th of February, DCI John Caldwell was killed outside of a sports centre by two gunmen. The police subsequently arrested six men on terrorism charges, with the suspects likely being affiliated with the IRA. This attack seems to be what pushed the terror level to be raised.
Following the attack, many Northern Irish citizens took to the streets to campaign against the violence. (Sky News, 2023) Despite these peaceful displays, it seems as if more New IRA attacks are likely. Attacks from other nationalist groups are also expected, mainly from the Army of the Republic, which publicly stated in early March that police officers and their families were now targets. On the 28th of March, the Northern Irish Police Service (PSNI) revealed that they found a large cache of ammunition on a raid at a New IRA compound. The real question many are asking is why now? Not since The Troubles has there been such a high terror threat from the Republic of Ireland.
This new rise in anti-British sentiment is likely due to the poor handling of the Northern Irish border. After the United Kingdom left the European Union, there was a major controversy over the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. According to European law, EU citizens can travel freely across member states' borders. Any border outside of this area is treated as if it was a non-European state. New negotiations surrounding this border may have ignited this new rise in Irish terrorism.
The major difference between now and The Troubles is that the New IRA does not have any political support. All major political organisations in Northern Ireland completely condemn the actions. In the Republic of Ireland, political parties have disavowed the actions of the group. Ireland's leading party Sien Fien's Vice President stated, "[paramilitary groups] must go". Ireland's Minister of Justice, Simon Harris, stated that the Irish police will monitor the ongoing situation.
The attacks ignited a large response from Northern Irish terror groups like the Ulster Defence Force and the Ulster Defence Association. Retributory attacks from these groups have occurred in the days following the killing of John Caldwell.
Despite the threat level being raised, the people of the UK and Ireland should not fear impending attacks. The scale of these Irish nationalist groups is not as big as they were in the 1980s. Large-scale attacks, like the Andale Centre Bombings, are very unlikely. Both sides are also closely monitoring the situation, wanting to avoid further conflict.
School Shooting in Nashville, Tennessee
More information has been revealed about the Nashville Shooter. Many already know about the Nashville Covenant School Shooting, which left seven dead, including the shooter. The perpetrator, Aiden Hale was receiving treatment for mental health issues at the time of the shooting. Despite this, Hale was still able to purchase seven firearms, three of which were used in the shooting itself. Hale had also written a detailed manifesto with detailed drawings of the school, backup locations and follow-up attack plans. According to authorities, Hale was acting alone and was not part of a wider terror group. Despite there being evidence of Hale planning other attacks, he would write a suicide note to a former basketball teammate before the attack, indicating they were expecting to be killed. As a former student at the Covenant School, it's believed the main motive was revenge for his treatment there. (Sky News, 2023) Hale's legal purchase of firearms, despite receiving treatment for mental health issues highlights the issues with the vending of firearms in the US. Congress is already up in arms over the discussions about banning automatic rifles, the kind which Hale used in the attack.
Chinese Shops Forced to Close in Pakistan
Ongoing issues with Pakistani terror groups attacking Chinese buildings have come to a breaking point. The attacks from separatist groups on Chinese locations have caused a rift in the two countries' burgeoning relationship. China has urged Pakistan to deal with the terror attacks on Chinese buildings within the country. This added pressure from China and the lack of funds within Pakistan have pushed police forces into a corner.
The police force in the city of Karachi has begun closing down Chinese stores to remove the possibility of an attack. This is not unprompted, with counterintelligence believing attacks on Chinese locations in Karachi were imminent. At first, police forces told shops to close, but were met with a lack of cooperation. So, the Karachi Police forcibly closed down the locations.
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| A Police Officer in Karachi [Source: Reuters] |
These shutdowns are not illegal but allowed under Pakistan's Sindh Security of Vulnerable Establishments Act, which enables the police to forcefully close businesses that are vulnerable to attacks. The Karachi Police will only reopen the locations when sufficient security measures are put in place by the owners.
Though these measures may seem draconian, the shutdowns come after multiple, devastating attacks on Chinese assets, especially projects apart of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, or CPEC, is a fifty-billion-dollar investment into Pakistan's internal infrastructure, as a part of China's Bejing Belt and Road initiative. Despite this major investment, Pakistani nationalists disliked the growing Chinese influence in Pakistan. The nationalist Baloch Liberation Army perpetrated three attacks on important Chinese buildings, including the Chinese consulate in Karachi. In addition, groups like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and ISIS-K also carried out attacks. One notable suicide bombing occurred on a bus carrying Chinese engineers, in 2021. Thirteen were killed which caused the Pakistani Government to pay millions to China to compensate the victim's families.
The poor security measures for Chinese citizens in Pakistan have caused an outcry. China has asked the Pakistani Government to allow private security forces within the country to protect its citizens, but this has been repeatedly shut down. (Nikkei Asia, 2023) Though terror groups are attempting to disrupt the relationship between the two countries, it seems that China's investments are too huge to just stop completely. So, it seems as if these issues will continue if Pakistan can't eradicate the presence of terrorism.
The Taliban Arrest Three British men
A UK-based Humanitarian organisation, the Presidium Network, have revealed that three British men are being held by the Taliban in Afghanistan. The charity aims to support communities in crisis and to raise awareness for issues on the international stage. On April 1st, they revealed that one of their workers had been arrested by the Taliban. Only two of the three men have been named, but news sources do have the story behind their arrests.
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| A Taliban Fighter in Afghanistan [Source: GettyImages] |
Kevin Cornwell, a worker for the Presidium Network, and another unnamed man were arrested together on January 11th. At a later date, 23-year-old Miles Routledge was arrested. Routledge is a social media influencer who is a 'dark tourist', someone who travels to potentially dangerous countries for fun. Two years ago, Routledge was in Afghanistan when the Taliban took control of the country and was extracted by the British Army. The third man is still unknown to both the Presidium Network and the UK Foreign Office. (Sky News, 2023)
The UK Foreign Office is currently attempting to contact all three men. The unstable situation in Afghanistan makes any British person a prime target for the Taliban. The current condition of the men is also unknown.
Due to this story being ongoing, we keep you all informed, with updates on the Vision Blog.
References
Nikkei Asia. (n.d.). Pakistan police resort to shutting Chinese shops over terror risk. [online] Available at: https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Terrorism/Pakistan-police-resort-to-shutting-Chinese-shops-over-terror-risk [Accessed 2 Apr. 2023].
Northern Ireland terrorism threat level rises. (2023). BBC News. [online] 28 Mar. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-65096493.
Sky News. (n.d.). Nashville school shooting: What we know about killer Audrey Hale. [online] Available at: https://news.sky.com/story/nashville-school-shooting-what-we-know-about-the-killer-so-far-12843858.
Sky News. (n.d.). Sixth man arrested over attempted murder of police officer in Northern Ireland. [online] Available at: https://news.sky.com/story/sixth-man-arrested-over-attempted-murder-of-police-officer-in-northern-ireland-12820326 [Accessed 2 Apr. 2023].
Three British men being held by Taliban in Afghanistan. (2023). BBC News. [online] 1 Apr. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65118681 [Accessed 2 Apr. 2023].
