Islamic State's Terror Threat to the Religious Political Parties of Pakistan

On July 31st of this year, a suicide bomber attacked the party convention of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JU)), a conservative religious party in Pakistan. The brutal bombing killed 63 people, including 23 children, and left more than 100 others injured. Islamic State in the Khorasan Province (ISKP) claimed responsibility for the attack. This attack marked the deadliest yet on Pakistan's religious political parties, raising questions about the reasons behind IS's intensified campaign against them. In this video, we will explore how the Islamic State is targeting the religious far-right in Pakistan and why their efforts are being focused on the JUI.

First, let's examine the party history of the JUI and how it offers a unique religious approach to politics in Pakistan and the wider Middle East. The party originated as a political group for Deobandis in British India in 1919. Deobandis adhere to the Deobandi school of thought in Sunni Islam. The party, initially known as Jamiat Ulema-e-Hind (JUH), consisted of politically active, anti-colonialist Deobandis. Within the party, a significant faction supported the idea of a separate state for Indian Muslims, leading to a split in 1945. This faction joined the All-India Muslim League, which aimed to establish the Muslim state of Pakistan and became known as Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Pakistan.

A few years after joining the All-Indian Muslim League, the JUI parted ways with the group and formed the Markazi Ulema-e-Islam, contributing to the religious foundations of Pakistan. Under new leadership in the early 1960s, the JUI became more politically active. However, it wasn't until the 1970s and 1980s that the JUI played a significant role in the Middle East. This period was marked by the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, which deeply affected Pakistan. President General Zia ul Haq declared a jihad against the Soviets in Afghanistan, a move that divided the JUI. Some members disagreed with these policies, while others supported the president. The JUI received substantial financial support during this time, which enabled them to establish madrassas in the North West Frontier Province of Pakistan. These institutions played a crucial role in educating and assisting Taliban members, who would go on to fight against the Soviets in Afghanistan. The internal divide within the JUI during the Zia administration eventually led to a split after the death of the longtime party leader Mufti Mehmood, resulting in the formation of the Zia-supporting JUI-S and the non-Zia JUI-F. 

The JUI-F proved to be more influential than its breakaway faction. Today, it is a minority party in Pakistan, with four members in the country's senate. Despite its minority status, the party is highly religious and actively advocates for the implementation of Sharia law. The JUI-F also has a unique role in Pakistani politics, controlling numerous mosques and madrassas across the country, which serve as hubs for activism and campaigns. It is estimated that both JUI factions collectively oversee 65% of all madrassas in Pakistan. These madrassas have also served as centres for Afghan students sympathetic to the Taliban, with around 30,000 Afghan students who attended JUI-affiliated madrassas later becoming Taliban members. The JUI's connections to scholars mean that highly educated individuals teach at these institutions. Notably, while the JUI-F has educated numerous Taliban members, it does not endorse militarism and instead promotes democracy. In contrast, the JUI-S openly supports militarism and operates madrassas that have openly taught Taliban leadership. After the death of Osama Bin Laden in 2011, both JUI factions united in campaigning for the Pakistani Government to cease its support for NATO, specifically condemning the use of drones by the U.S. in tribal areas of Pakistan. Following the assassination of JUI-S' leader Samiul Haq in 2018, the splinter party ceased its operations. After obtaining approval from Pakistan's Electoral Commission, the JUI-F was officially renamed the JUI. Today, the JUI continues to play a significant role in religious education in Pakistan, though it holds only four seats in Pakistan's Senate.

Given their extensive links and religious prominence, it's no surprise that the JUI has become a target for the Islamic State. Since 2019, Islamic State has escalated its attacks on the JUI. In that year, ISKP initiated an assassination campaign against JUI activists in the Bajaur District. Alongside these targeted assassinations, ISKP intensified its propaganda against the political party. In their newsletters, IS criticized the JUI for its support of democracy, a stance at odds with the core doctrine of the terror group. Both physical and media attacks against the party surged. By 2022, ISKP issued a fatwa, an Islamic religious declaration, calling for the killing of all scholars associated with the JUI, citing their close ties to the Taliban. This fatwa came following the death of a JUI-affiliated teacher named Mufti Shafiullah. Intelligence experts believe that this fatwa was issued in response to the JUI's efforts to secure international recognition for the Taliban Government in Afghanistan. Subsequent months saw further killings and attacks against educators linked to the JUI. The recent attack on the party's convention underscores that ISKP continues to actively target the religious far-right in Pakistan, especially those with connections to the Taliban.

Several key reasons explain why the JUI has become a prime target for the Islamic State's brutal attacks. Many may question why such a devastating campaign is waged against a relatively small political party in Pakistan. However, when considering the party's history and religious significance, the motivations behind the relentless attacks become clearer. IS is dedicated to establishing an Islamic Caliphate without a functioning democracy. The mere presence of a religious political party actively participating in democracy challenges this vision, making the JUI a target. While the attacks may be viewed as a means to discourage democratic engagement, the JUI's affiliations with the Taliban make it a primary target for IS. Since the Taliban assumed power in Afghanistan, the JUI has increased its diplomatic and educational support for the Taliban. The attacks on JUI scholars can be seen as a direct threat to those assisting the Taliban in gaining international recognition. Additionally, the JUI's long history of aiding the Taliban further makes it susceptible to attacks. IS's assaults serve as both a deterrent to the madrassas educating Taliban members across the country and a disruptive method, eliminating affiliated teachers for said madrassas. The JUI's role as a religious party puts it at odds with IS's interpretation of Islam, leading to disagreements on core religious principles and creating further animosity. The JUI's interpretation of Islam is something they widely platform through their controlled madrassas and mosques, spreading the JUI's ideas of Islam to thousands of students. The JUI's active role in promoting this view through religious education makes it a prime target for attack from IS. 

These three main characteristics of the JUI place it at the forefront of the Islamic State's terror campaign in Pakistan. The presence of a religious political party engaging in democracy, its alliances with the Taliban, and its role in promoting a differing view of Islam compared to IS make it a direct adversary to the terror organization. The recent attack on the party's convention was one of the most audacious and deadly assaults by IS against the JUI. Despite this, Pakistan remains committed to combating IS. Its recent alliances with Iran and China in countering terrorism are expected to deal a significant blow to terror organizations across the Middle East.

China, Pakistan & Iran hold Trilateral Meeting to Deal with Terrorism

China, Pakistan and Iran: The Trilateral Alliance to Fight Terrorism in the Middle East

Iranian Border Guards Along the Iran-Pakistan Border

In recent years, China's investments in the Middle East have become a primary target for terrorism. Just weeks ago, Pakistani police forcefully closed businesses out of fear that they could be potential targets for terror attacks. For Pakistan and Iran, the Islamic State and the Taliban pose the greatest threats to stability within their respective countries, as these groups continue to wreak havoc in the Middle East.

On June 7th, a meeting was scheduled in Beijing, where China aimed to find a resolution to the terror attacks. As mentioned earlier, Chinese investments and assets are frequently targeted by terrorist organisations in these countries. The trilateral meeting between the countries marks the beginning of a new anti-terror alliance. One of the key agenda items is the security crisis in the Pakistani region of Baluchistan, which is crucial for China's multi-billion-dollar economic corridor. Baluchistan is also rich in natural resources, making it an area of interest for economic development. However, the region is plagued by extreme poverty, crime, and insurgency. Combating terrorism in the area is challenging, as many terrorist operatives cross the border into Iran to evade persecution.

The Iranian province that shares a border with Baluchistan, Sistan-Baluchistan, also grapples with insurgency problems. Iranian Shiite government forces are currently engaged in fighting against several Sunni militant groups, which have carried out a number of attacks across the country. Iran asserts that Pakistan is not doing enough to curtail Sunni militancy.

Despite accusations of insufficient action from both sides, Iran and Pakistan maintain close diplomatic relations. In the past month, the leaders of both countries met at their shared border to inaugurate a new market and powerline. With China holding significant economic investments in both countries, this new alliance appears to be mutually beneficial. China's investments can now receive protection from terrorism, while Iran and Pakistan can address the growing threat of terrorism within their borders. The Taliban-controlled Afghanistan poses a major obstacle for the alliance, as it is believed to harbour and assist Al-Qaeda-aligned groups. Reports suggest that multiple key members of these groups hold influential positions within the Afghan government.

Afghanistan is the New Breeding Ground for Terrorism 

Afghan-Taliban Counter-Terror Forces

Since the Taliban regime took control of Afghanistan, the country has become a breeding ground for terrorism. Groups like Islamic State and other smaller terrorist organisations are using this period of instability to destabilise and consolidate their territories. Despite pushback from the Afghan government, especially against the Islamic State, smaller groups are still thriving under the unstable regime. Most notably, Al-Qaeda has strengthened its relationship with the Taliban government, allowing the core terror group to operate without persecution. The Taliban still have around three to four thousand foreign fighters working for the group, mostly from Pakistan and Central Asia. The flow of foreign fighters entering the country seems to have slowed. It appears that the Taliban government has been issuing valid passports to members of terror groups, including Al-Qaeda. These passports give terror operatives new identities, allowing them to travel internationally for recruitment. The vending of these false identities and the capability of international travel creates a wall of protection for terror operatives, making it harder for intelligence services to effectively identify them.

While the Taliban government has its terrorist allies, it also has a fair few enemies within the country. On top of the Islamic State in the Khorasan Province (ISKP), which is extremely active within the country, a report by ISIS indicates that ISKP has been involved in one hundred and eighty-one attacks since 2022. These operations are believed to have caused over one thousand casualties. Additionally, ISKP carries out significant attacks on business and infrastructural targets, including the foreign ministry, the Pakistani embassy, and a hotel where Chinese diplomats were staying. Though these attacks gradually decreased in the winter months, the rate of these attacks was staggering, with them happening so quickly one after another.

ISKP has found itself a new membership base through former Taliban members (from the Haqqani Network), foreign fighters from Pakistan (from the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)), and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). Through these means, ISKP has hundreds of new fighters who can launch multiple attacks at once, allowing for such a rapid frequency. The European Union Institute for Security Studies (2023) reports that membership for the group has doubled from around two thousand members to just over four thousand. This doubling of membership is not just from former members of other groups but also from previously detained members who escaped during the unrest when the Taliban took over the country. This diverse ISKP complicates counterterrorism for the Taliban, who would not want to anger factions within itself and would want to avoid any intra-factional conflict in the group.

This intra-factional conflict has occurred before in the Taliban, with former members breaking away from the official group to form the National Resistance Front, comprised mostly of former Taliban members and local militias. The NRF still carries out attacks on the governmental Taliban to this day.

ISKP attacks on foreign assets within Afghanistan have brought major international attention, particularly regarding attacks on Pakistani, Chinese, and Russian targets. ISKP targets any government that cooperates with the Taliban government, even launching rocket attacks on Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The constant attacks on Pakistani targets have soured relations between the two countries. Pakistan is not only a major investor in Afghanistan but also faces attacks from a Taliban-aligned group, the TTP. The TTP has been launching insurgency operations against Pakistan since 2014, but recently the group has become extremely well-structured, with a UN report fearing that the group has the potential to be extremely damaging to the Middle East. One worrying possibility is an alliance between the TTP and ISKP. In the past, the TTP had aligned itself with the Islamic State, so it would not be unprecedented. Even though it is operating against Pakistan, the Taliban government of Afghanistan protects the TTP and possibly assists it. Since 2022, the TTP has been strengthened through the re-joining of former splinter groups. This reuniting was facilitated by Al-Qaeda, an ally of the Taliban.

The terrorist issues are not just straining relations with Pakistan but also with China. China's concerns lie with the Taliban government's affiliations with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) or ETIM for short. ETIM desires to create an independent Uighur Muslim State, which encompasses land from Turkey, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region. The Chinese government believes the ETIM group has been influencing the over ten million Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang. The Uighurs are already under intense scrutiny by Chinese law enforcement for potential terror threats. The controlling Taliban have been attempting to influence ETIM fighters, though many security experts fear that these attempts to control the group will only push them closer to ISKP.

The Taliban government in Afghanistan has created a breeding ground for terrorism through its alliances and its enemies. All terror groups aligned with the government are being equipped and given the means for covert international travel, enabling them to recruit and launch attacks internationally. The enemies of the Taliban are consolidating with one another against a common enemy, bolstering terrorism in the Middle East. With significant security vacuums across Africa and the Middle East, it seems that these growing terror organisations can spread their influence. This situation is very similar to the early 2000s, with groups having the opportunity to grow their membership from foreign fighters and merge with other groups, creating large terror organisations.

https://www.iss.europa.eu/content/security-risks-emanating-afghanistan#_the_transnational_dimension__

Vision Counterterrorism Newsletter [27/03/2023 to 02/04/2023]

This is the Vision Weekly Counter Terrorism Newsletter. The main aim is to offer up a brief update on counter terror news, as well as updates to former stories. These newsletters supplement other articles written. So, even though topics may overlap, I hope that each can stand independently from one another. 

Threat Level raised in Northern Ireland

Following the killing of a police officer in Northern Ireland, MI5 has decided to raise the threat level there from substantial to severe. A threat of an Irish Republican Army attack in Northern Ireland or the rest of the UK is high according to the authorities. (BBC, 2023) On the 26th of February, DCI John Caldwell was killed outside of a sports centre by two gunmen. The police subsequently arrested six men on terrorism charges, with the suspects likely being affiliated with the IRA. This attack seems to be what pushed the terror level to be raised. 

Following the attack, many Northern Irish citizens took to the streets to campaign against the violence. (Sky News, 2023) Despite these peaceful displays, it seems as if more New IRA attacks are likely. Attacks from other nationalist groups are also expected, mainly from the Army of the Republic, which publicly stated in early March that police officers and their families were now targets. On the 28th of March, the Northern Irish Police Service (PSNI) revealed that they found a large cache of ammunition on a raid at a New IRA compound. The real question many are asking is why now? Not since The Troubles has there been such a high terror threat from the Republic of Ireland.

This new rise in anti-British sentiment is likely due to the poor handling of the Northern Irish border. After the United Kingdom left the European Union, there was a major controversy over the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. According to European law, EU citizens can travel freely across member states' borders. Any border outside of this area is treated as if it was a non-European state. New negotiations surrounding this border may have ignited this new rise in Irish terrorism. 

The major difference between now and The Troubles is that the New IRA does not have any political support. All major political organisations in Northern Ireland completely condemn the actions. In the Republic of Ireland, political parties have disavowed the actions of the group. Ireland's leading party Sien Fien's Vice President stated, "[paramilitary groups] must go". Ireland's Minister of Justice, Simon Harris, stated that the Irish police will monitor the ongoing situation.

The attacks ignited a large response from Northern Irish terror groups like the Ulster Defence Force and the Ulster Defence Association. Retributory attacks from these groups have occurred in the days following the killing of John Caldwell.

Despite the threat level being raised, the people of the UK and Ireland should not fear impending attacks. The scale of these Irish nationalist groups is not as big as they were in the 1980s. Large-scale attacks, like the Andale Centre Bombings, are very unlikely. Both sides are also closely monitoring the situation, wanting to avoid further conflict. 

School Shooting  in Nashville, Tennessee

More information has been revealed about the Nashville Shooter. Many already know about the Nashville Covenant School Shooting, which left seven dead, including the shooter. The perpetrator, Aiden Hale was receiving treatment for mental health issues at the time of the shooting. Despite this, Hale was still able to purchase seven firearms, three of which were used in the shooting itself. Hale had also written a detailed manifesto with detailed drawings of the school, backup locations and follow-up attack plans. According to authorities, Hale was acting alone and was not part of a wider terror group. Despite there being evidence of Hale planning other attacks, he would write a suicide note to a former basketball teammate before the attack, indicating they were expecting to be killed. As a former student at the Covenant School, it's believed the main motive was revenge for his treatment there. (Sky News, 2023) Hale's legal purchase of firearms, despite receiving treatment for mental health issues highlights the issues with the vending of firearms in the US. Congress is already up in arms over the discussions about banning automatic rifles, the kind which Hale used in the attack. 

Chinese Shops Forced to Close in Pakistan

Ongoing issues with Pakistani terror groups attacking Chinese buildings have come to a breaking point. The attacks from separatist groups on Chinese locations have caused a rift in the two countries' burgeoning relationship. China has urged Pakistan to deal with the terror attacks on Chinese buildings within the country. This added pressure from China and the lack of funds within Pakistan have pushed police forces into a corner.

The police force in the city of Karachi has begun closing down Chinese stores to remove the possibility of an attack. This is not unprompted, with counterintelligence believing attacks on Chinese locations in Karachi were imminent. At first, police forces told shops to close, but were met with a lack of cooperation. So, the Karachi Police forcibly closed down the locations. 

A Police Officer in Karachi [Source: Reuters]

These shutdowns are not illegal but allowed under Pakistan's Sindh Security of Vulnerable Establishments Act, which enables the police to forcefully close businesses that are vulnerable to attacks. The Karachi Police will only reopen the locations when sufficient security measures are put in place by the owners. 

Though these measures may seem draconian, the shutdowns come after multiple, devastating attacks on Chinese assets, especially projects apart of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, or CPEC, is a fifty-billion-dollar investment into Pakistan's internal infrastructure, as a part of China's Bejing Belt and Road initiative. Despite this major investment, Pakistani nationalists disliked the growing Chinese influence in Pakistan. The nationalist Baloch Liberation Army perpetrated three attacks on important Chinese buildings, including the Chinese consulate in Karachi. In addition, groups like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and ISIS-K also carried out attacks. One notable suicide bombing occurred on a bus carrying Chinese engineers, in 2021. Thirteen were killed which caused the Pakistani Government to pay millions to China to compensate the victim's families. 

The poor security measures for Chinese citizens in Pakistan have caused an outcry. China has asked the Pakistani Government to allow private security forces within the country to protect its citizens, but this has been repeatedly shut down. (Nikkei Asia, 2023) Though terror groups are attempting to disrupt the relationship between the two countries, it seems that China's investments are too huge to just stop completely. So, it seems as if these issues will continue if Pakistan can't eradicate the presence of terrorism.  

The Taliban Arrest Three British men

A UK-based Humanitarian organisation, the Presidium Network, have revealed that three British men are being held by the Taliban in Afghanistan. The charity aims to support communities in crisis and to raise awareness for issues on the international stage. On April 1st, they revealed that one of their workers had been arrested by the Taliban. Only two of the three men have been named, but news sources do have the story behind their arrests. 

A Taliban Fighter in Afghanistan [Source: GettyImages]

Kevin Cornwell, a worker for the Presidium Network, and another unnamed man were arrested together on January 11th. At a later date, 23-year-old Miles Routledge was arrested. Routledge is a social media influencer who is a 'dark tourist', someone who travels to potentially dangerous countries for fun. Two years ago, Routledge was in Afghanistan when the Taliban took control of the country and was extracted by the British Army. The third man is still unknown to both the Presidium Network and the UK Foreign Office. (Sky News, 2023)

The UK Foreign Office is currently attempting to contact all three men. The unstable situation in Afghanistan makes any British person a prime target for the Taliban. The current condition of the men is also unknown. 

Due to this story being ongoing, we keep you all informed, with updates on the Vision Blog. 

References

Nikkei Asia. (n.d.). Pakistan police resort to shutting Chinese shops over terror risk. [online] Available at: https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Terrorism/Pakistan-police-resort-to-shutting-Chinese-shops-over-terror-risk [Accessed 2 Apr. 2023].

Northern Ireland terrorism threat level rises. (2023). BBC News. [online] 28 Mar. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-65096493.

‌Sky News. (n.d.). Nashville school shooting: What we know about killer Audrey Hale. [online] Available at: https://news.sky.com/story/nashville-school-shooting-what-we-know-about-the-killer-so-far-12843858.

Sky News. (n.d.). Sixth man arrested over attempted murder of police officer in Northern Ireland. [online] Available at: https://news.sky.com/story/sixth-man-arrested-over-attempted-murder-of-police-officer-in-northern-ireland-12820326 [Accessed 2 Apr. 2023].

‌Three British men being held by Taliban in Afghanistan. (2023). BBC News. [online] 1 Apr. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65118681 [Accessed 2 Apr. 2023].

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