Turning the Tide: The Second Stage of the Counteroffensive against Al-Shabaab in Somalia 

We have previously reported on the multiple triumphs that the Somali government has achieved in their counteroffensive against Al-Shabaab. Now, it seems that the counteroffensive is entering its second stage. With the presence of the militant group reduced in the northern regions, the Somali army is now deploying into the central and lower regions of the country. These regions are pivotal for Al-Shabaab, both strategically and logistically. In the UN monitoring report, they expect that the fighting in these regions would become intense, with Al-Shabaab desperately defending their most valuable territories.

On the 18th of July, it was reported that Somalia has begun its push into the central regions. Joined by their ATMIS and US counterparts, the Somali army began setting up base camps across the HirShabelle and Galmadug states. This initial push into these territories has resulted in the death of over 3,000 Al-Shabaab militants, according to reports. With this mass deployment of the Somali army across the area, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has also requested additional non-ATMIS troops from Djibouti, Kenya, and Ethiopia to fortify the Somali lines.

Intelligence gathering on the group has also become much easier. Three years ago, the Somali High Court ruled that it was illegal for the government to tap the phones of suspected Al-Shabaab financiers. Now, after a long appeal, that verdict has been overturned. The Somali Government can actively track suspected leaders of the group through text and cell phone data. Defense CS Duale asked for the continued support of Somalis in the fight against terror. After the verdict, Duale called out the terror group directly. He said, 'I give a straightforward message to the leadership rank and file of Al-Shabaab. We will hunt you down using all the security apparatus at our disposal. We will work with other nations in IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) to hunt you down, even in Somalia, and get you. We will protect the territorial and sovereign integrity of our people.'

The Dulmi Diid Militia

In military operations, US, Somali, and ATMIS forces have seen continued success. US-backed operations on the 19th of July led to the death of over 100 Al-Shabaab fighters in the Middle Shabelle Region. A few days later, US airstrikes killed 5 more terror operatives. Local militias have also been invaluable in fighting the terror organization. In the southwest of the country, an armed militia calling themselves Dulmi Diid, meaning 'opposing the oppression,' has established itself. The group, mainly composed of ethnic Rahanwein individuals, is taking the fight to Al-Shabaab in their own territory. Dulmi Diid was formed to end the oppressive rule of Al-Shabaab over the lower regions. Al-Shabaab recently blockaded the city of Baidoa, leaving hundreds of people without fuel, water, and food. Dulmi Diid has been actively fighting against this blockade. The group isn’t just militaristic; they have also called for more cooperation between the national and local state governments. These collaborative military efforts are working wonders against the terror group. It is expected that by December 2024, these regions will be free from Al-Shabaab control.

While the second stage of the counteroffensive has been successful so far, Al-Shabaab is still carrying out attacks regularly. Al-Shabaab is incredibly effective at funding itself through extortion and taxation. According to the US State Department, the group pulls in nearly $120 million a year. It is thought that $24 million of this sum goes towards purchasing weapons from abroad. The rest goes to pay fighters and fund operations outside of the country. Additionally, it is believed that these funds are also used to pay foreign fighters from other African countries. Recently, men from Uganda and Tanzania were caught by security forces as they were traveling to an Al-Shabaab stronghold to join the group. Going after the financial structures of the terror group is a necessary part of this second stage. As mentioned previously, Somali courts have now allowed phone tapping and deeper surveillance against suspected financiers. At the end of July, President Mohamud met with Brian Nelson, the Under Secretary of the US Treasury for Financial Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. In the meeting, the successes of the Somali Government’s fight against financial crime were revealed. Over 250 Al-Shabaab-associated bank accounts were closed, and 70 money-wiring firms associated with the group were shut down. The US had also gathered a list of suspected financiers who were being surveyed and blacklisted from flights to the US. Restricting the group's finances would cripple the group, removing any incentive for foreign fighters to join and limiting the scale of their operations.