The UN Withdrawal from Mali: Can the Country Remain Stable?

On the 16th of June, the military junta in Mali called for the withdrawal of all UN troops from the nation. The mission, scheduled to end at the end of the month, has created more unrest according to many Malians. Citizens of the West African country feel that United Nations troops have worsened the terror crisis during their ten-year-long campaign. Despite Mali's Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Doip calling for the immediate withdrawal of UN troops at a UN peace conference in New York, a vote to extend the mission's length is still on the agenda at the 30th June Security Council Meeting. Even if the resolution passes, the Chief of the UN's Mission in Mali, El Ghassim Wane, claimed that the mission would be virtually impossible without the cooperation of the country's government. These demands come at a crucial time in the country's history, with elections being held on Sunday, 18th June.

The response from UN forces and groups within Mali has been mixed. One of the most vocal critics of Mali's call for withdrawal is Germany. The country, with over one thousand troops deployed in Mali, remains committed to the planned 2024 withdrawal. Officials in Berlin say the calls for withdrawal from the Malian military government are politically motivated, as the African nation strengthens its relationship with Russia. The Russia-affiliated Wagner Group has also been extremely active in the country.

Everyday citizens of Mali have mixed views on the calls for withdrawal. The UN Mission in Mali is more than just a militaristic force, with many of the fifteen thousand troops deployed in the country serving in logistical roles. After bombings from Islamic extremists, UN troops would assist in rebuilding efforts as well as protecting important libraries housing treasured documents. However, many feel that the UN's role in Mali is not proactive enough. People perceive them as a purely defensive force, only acting after terror incidents. Despite this, many in the country's capital, Timbuktu, do see the usefulness of the forces, which protect the city from major terror incidents. The UN mission in Mali also brings an economic boost, with fifteen thousand well-paid workers in the country. Communities where the UN is active experience economic boom periods. Citizens also fear that the withdrawal of UN troops will allow Islamic extremists and rebels to wreak havoc in the country. Significant progress has been made in peace talks with rebels and extremists. The UN, in conjunction with the Algerian Government, has helped mediate peace talks between the Malian Government and the Coordination of Azawad Movements, a coalition of rebels and Arab nationalist organisations. As the military government in Mali moves towards opening the polls, these groups feel left out of constitutional discussions. In December, the groups pulled out of prearranged agreements overseen by the UN, declaring that they will only rejoin these agreements if they are renegotiated by a neutral party. Now, with talks of the government no longer desiring UN assistance, citizens fear that peaceful negotiations with these groups will not be possible, potentially resulting in a civil war.

The Effects of Terrorism on Education: The ADF Militas Attack in Uganda

Ugandan Military Personnel searching for ADF Militias

One often-forgotten aspect of terrorism is the threat it poses to the lives of young people. It not only threatens their lives but also actively disrupts the education system. Throughout Africa, over nine thousand schools have been closed due to terrorism threats against students or teachers, depriving nearly two million students of an education.

The threats of armed assaults on schools are a valid fear. In Uganda, on June 18th, terror operatives affiliated with the Islamic State entered Lhubiriha Secondary School and began killing students with machetes. These men moved from dormitory to dormitory, armed with blades, stabbing students and attempting to burn down the school. The dorms housed sixty students, and more than half of them were killed in the attacks. The current death toll stands at thirty-seven, with eight students in critical condition after terrorists threw fire bombs into their bedrooms. Six students are believed to have been abducted after being forced to assist the terrorists in stealing food from the school's cafeteria.

The group behind the attack is thought to be the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), based in the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The ADF is closely affiliated with the Islamic State. The attackers are believed to have crossed the border back into the DRC. Ugandan counter-terror forces are reportedly tracking the attackers in the hope of rescuing those abducted by the group.

These attacks have sparked outrage among Ugandans, with border security forces revealing that they had intelligence suggesting the group had been camped near the school two days before the attack. Just a few weeks ago, ADF fighters had been carrying out attacks on border towns in the DRC, leading hundreds of citizens to flee into Uganda.

The ADF commonly targets schools in an attempt to create fear within communities and abduct potential recruits. The fight against terror involves more than just the military; it also requires the protection of everyday services that are vital to keep a community functioning.

China, Pakistan & Iran hold Trilateral Meeting to Deal with Terrorism

China, Pakistan and Iran: The Trilateral Alliance to Fight Terrorism in the Middle East

Iranian Border Guards Along the Iran-Pakistan Border

In recent years, China's investments in the Middle East have become a primary target for terrorism. Just weeks ago, Pakistani police forcefully closed businesses out of fear that they could be potential targets for terror attacks. For Pakistan and Iran, the Islamic State and the Taliban pose the greatest threats to stability within their respective countries, as these groups continue to wreak havoc in the Middle East.

On June 7th, a meeting was scheduled in Beijing, where China aimed to find a resolution to the terror attacks. As mentioned earlier, Chinese investments and assets are frequently targeted by terrorist organisations in these countries. The trilateral meeting between the countries marks the beginning of a new anti-terror alliance. One of the key agenda items is the security crisis in the Pakistani region of Baluchistan, which is crucial for China's multi-billion-dollar economic corridor. Baluchistan is also rich in natural resources, making it an area of interest for economic development. However, the region is plagued by extreme poverty, crime, and insurgency. Combating terrorism in the area is challenging, as many terrorist operatives cross the border into Iran to evade persecution.

The Iranian province that shares a border with Baluchistan, Sistan-Baluchistan, also grapples with insurgency problems. Iranian Shiite government forces are currently engaged in fighting against several Sunni militant groups, which have carried out a number of attacks across the country. Iran asserts that Pakistan is not doing enough to curtail Sunni militancy.

Despite accusations of insufficient action from both sides, Iran and Pakistan maintain close diplomatic relations. In the past month, the leaders of both countries met at their shared border to inaugurate a new market and powerline. With China holding significant economic investments in both countries, this new alliance appears to be mutually beneficial. China's investments can now receive protection from terrorism, while Iran and Pakistan can address the growing threat of terrorism within their borders. The Taliban-controlled Afghanistan poses a major obstacle for the alliance, as it is believed to harbour and assist Al-Qaeda-aligned groups. Reports suggest that multiple key members of these groups hold influential positions within the Afghan government.

Retaliatory Attacks From Al-Shabaab as Counter-Offensive Continues to Succeed

The Aftermath of an Al-Shabaab Attack [Source: New York Times]

In the past ten days, Al-Shabaab has carried out several retaliatory attacks in response to the ongoing summer counter-offensive. The largest of these attacks took place in the country's capital, Mogadishu, on Friday, June 9th. The terror group stormed the Pearl Beach Hotel, which is located near Lido Beach—a popular destination for Somalia's elite upper classes. Politicians, diplomats, and foreigners often visit this area, making it a prime target for Al-Shabaab. The situation was quickly brought under control by Somali Special Forces. Following the siege, six civilians were killed, and ten others were wounded.

Another incident occurred on the same day, involving a separate and devastating explosion that claimed the lives of twenty-seven people. However, this incident was not directly caused by Al-Shabaab. Citizens from the town of Muraale discovered unexploded ordnance in a nearby field. Thinking that the explosives were small, they used them to light cooking fires. Unfortunately, these explosives, believed to have been planted by Al-Shabaab, detonated, resulting in the deaths of twenty-seven individuals and injuring fifty more.

Earlier on that Friday, the Somali Government announced its intention to replace two thousand African Union soldiers with Somali forces. This move appears to be the reason behind the recent attacks. The transition signifies the success of the renewed counter-offensive and represents a step towards a more stable Somalia. The African Union's current plans aim to hand over all military positions to the Somali Government by 2024.

In a more recent attack in Nairobi, Kenya, Al-Shabaab operatives detonated multiple improvised explosive devices (IEDs), resulting in the deaths of eight police officers. These attacks were carried out in response to Kenya's involvement in ATMIS (African Union Transition Mission in Somalia), like many other African countries. Kenya has deployed troops to Somalia since 2011 and has experienced numerous bloody retaliatory attacks as a consequence.

While these retaliatory attacks have occurred, Somali, African Union and US forces continue to push forward in their fight against the terrorist group. Recently, the US has offered a five-million-dollar reward for information leading to the arrest of Abdullahi Osman Mohamed, a prominent bomb maker within Al-Shabaab. Mohamed, who sometimes goes by the alias Engineer Ismail, is also responsible for the group's media wing, known as al-kataib. This reward comes as Ahmed Umar, a former leading member of Al-Shabaab, faces legal proceedings in the US. Mohamed played a crucial advisory role to Umar, who was acting as the de-facto leader of the group. Million-dollar rewards have been placed on former leading members of the group, including Umar, and similar rewards are being offered for the capture of Mahad Karate, the group's chief finance officer, who remains at large

Ethiopian Forces Prevent Al-Shabaab Border Terror Attack

Al-Shabaab Terror Operatives

In the midst of the counter-offensive against Al-Shabaab, it's being reported that Ethiopian Forces along the border stopped a suicide attack from the group. The attackers were eliminated in the border town of Dallo, where an Ethiopian Military base is situated. According to Al-Jazeera (2023), two suicide attacks were planned, one targeting military equipment and a command post. Al-Shabaab's media claimed responsibility for the attacks, stating that the attacks were a response to Ethiopian Forces being part of the joint African Union counter-terror mission in Somalia. The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, or ATMIS, is a coalition force organized under the African Union. These attacks aren't unprecedented, with other Ethiopian military bases on the border being attacked last year. Just a few weeks ago, Al-Shabaab attacked a Ugandan military base in Bulo Marer, which left over fifty Ugandan soldiers dead.

This time, however, the attackers were stopped before the bombings could cause any major harm. Despite these attacks, Ethiopia, and ATMIS as a whole, remain poised to stop the Al-Shabaab threat. The mission hopes to restore stability to Somali forces by 2024. With the recent successes in the counter-offensives against the terror group, it seems that this goal will be achieved.

References

www.aljazeera.com. (n.d.). Ethiopia says it foiled al-Shabab attack near border with Somalia. [online] Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/7/ethiopia-says-it-foiled-al-shabab-attack-near-border-with-somalia [Accessed 10 Jun. 2023].

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Benin: The Victim of Spillover Terrorism

Spillover Terrorism is a phenomenon in which terrorism in one country gradually spreads into a neighbouring nation. One place where this is particularly evident is the West African nation of Benin, which shares borders with some of the most terror-stricken countries on the continent. One group that has spilt over from neighbouring Niger and Nigeria is the Islamic State of the Greater Sahara (ISGS). The most affected area by this spillover terrorism is the Alibori Department. On the 17th of April, the Alibori Department witnessed its most horrific attack when ISGS fighters conducted a nighttime raid on the Malanville police headquarters. According to TRAC Terrorism (2023), this attack marks the beginning of further IS campaigns in Benin. The Alibori Department has seemingly become an operational hub for ISGS.

Ugandan Forces Defeat Al-Shabaab & Recapture Occupied Villages

Not long ago, the Ugandan Forces with ATMIS (The African Transition Mission in Somalia) stationed at a military base in Bulo Marer faced an assault from Al-Shabaab forces. Car bombs, suicide bombers, and around eight hundred fighters bombarded the base early in the morning hours. The US, ATMIS, and Somali forces retaliated, recovering the base. It is now being reported by New Vision (2023) that the Uganda People's Defence Forces (UPDF) have recaptured Bulo Marer and other surrounding villages from Al-Shabaab's control. The Ugandan military forces faced resistance from Al-Shabaab snipers stationed around the villages. This recapture has brought with it a return to normalcy for Somali citizens in the area. Brigadier General Peter Omalo, the leader of the UPDF in the area, said in a statement, "We have combed the area to ensure no Al-Shabaab element is hiding and the road has been cleared of bombs. [...] As UPDF serving under the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, we remain committed to supporting a Somali-led peace and stability process as mandated by the African Union."

The current situation in Somalia is improving with African Union, Somali, and Western counter-terror offensives having tremendous success. Recently, group leaders have been wounded, killed, or have surrendered. This further progress into Al-Shabaab's territory is just another victory for counter-terror forces.