The Downfall of Al-Shabaab in Somalia

We last reported on the success of the renewed offensive against the terrorist organisation Al-Shabaab. Now, it seems that the counter-offensive is achieving tremendous success. In the past few weeks, the crumbling Al-Shabaab has suffered significant losses with the deaths of multiple high-profile group members. On Saturday, the 23rd of May, the US and Somali forces launched a collaborative assault on the region of Middle Juba, where a suspected Al-Shabaab headquarters was situated. Airstrikes from the US were launched on the town of Jilib, setting the stage for the Somali Army to launch a ground assault. After the intense airstrikes and raids, Al-Shabaab's leaders, Ahmed Diriye and Abu Ubaidah, released a video showcasing a previous meeting between several important members of the group, which took place from the 8th to the 15th of May. The group called this meeting 'The Jihad in East Africa' (Garowe Online, 2023). While the group tried to appear unfazed in the face of the rapidly approaching assault, this facade was quickly shattered when Al-Shabaab forces clashed with Somali counter-terror forces. The military had begun carrying out arrests in the town of Towfiq after a tip-off from villagers that an Al-Shabaab commander was hiding there. As security forces apprehended the leading Al-Shabaab operative, other members of the militant group attacked. Among these attackers was Al-Shabaab finance chief Mahad Aquadub. After the military fought off these attackers, Aquadub was shot, causing the terror chief to flee. While fleeing capture, he suffered a heart attack which resulted in his death. Four other militants were arrested following the attacks. These operatives have been linked to the planning of multiple terror attacks and are currently being held in Mogadishu (Garowe Online, 2023). Aquadub's death was a crushing blow for the group, as he was instrumental in collecting taxes for the organisation. As Al-Shabaab would occupy areas, they would coerce businesses and citizens into paying them taxes, which would go towards funding the group's operations. With Aquadub dead, the funding for the group has been greatly restricted. The financier was in charge of unlawful tax collection within the Galamadug Region.

The following day, the US released a preliminary report on the results of the airstrikes on Jilib. It was revealed by the Somali Ministry of Information that the airstrikes targeted leading Al-Shabaab member Osman Mohamed Abdi. Abdi was reportedly severely injured in the airstrikes. Somali state media stated, "Osman Mohamed Abdi [...] was wounded in a joint operation carried out by the National Army and international allies in Jilib. Abdi was responsible for smuggling foreign terrorists into the country and spreading propaganda to recruit fighters". (Garowe Online, 2023) Abdi's official title within the group was Head of External Operations. He had previously been the group's Head of Defense. Abdi is also directly linked to the 2016 El-Adde Attacks, which were the largest attacks on African peacekeepers on Somali soil, leaving more than two hundred Kenyan soldiers dead. In the following days, intelligence suggested that Abdi was critically injured and in an unconscious state. His condition is worsening by the day, and his death is seemingly imminent.

On the 26th of May, Al-Shabaab militants attacked a military base belonging to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) in Bulo Marer. The attacks began at around 5 am when cars filled with explosives and suicide bombers crashed into the base, which housed Ugandan soldiers. Following the explosions, a fierce firefight broke out between ATMIS forces, Somali forces, and Al-Shabaab militants. The fighting resulted in major losses for the terror group, although they did manage to seize some military equipment. However, this seizure was short-lived as ATMIS and US aerial units launched airstrikes on the captured equipment, destroying them in the process. Following the strikes, the remaining attackers fled. Al-Shabaab-owned media claimed that they had overrun the base, but Somali, ATMIS, and US sources declared that the situation is under control (IOL, 2023). Al-Shabaab is slowly being contained, and even their retaliatory attacks are failing, resulting in multiple casualties for them.

ATMIS Soldiers

By the 29th of May, the situation within the organisation was dire. This was most glaringly obvious when a leading member of the group surrendered and left the organisation. The man in question was Abdirahman Macalin Ahmed, a founding member of Al-Shabaab, who held several influential roles within the group, including as an advisor to the group's former leader. Ahmed was most active in the southern regions of Somalia, where he was in charge of extortion in the Lower Shabelle Region (Garowe Online, 2023). With all of these high-profile losses, it's clear that Al-Shabaab's grip on Somalia is rapidly slipping. The offensives by the African Union, US, and Somali military are clearly extremely effective. All of these losses have occurred in the past week alone. Going forward, as the summer counteroffensive intensifies, it is highly likely that we will witness further losses and possibly more surrenders from high-ranking members of the group. Clearly, with Ahmed surrendering and leaving the group, the organisation is in shambles. It looks as if it is the beginning of the end for Al-Shabaab.

Afghanistan is the New Breeding Ground for Terrorism 

Afghan-Taliban Counter-Terror Forces

Since the Taliban regime took control of Afghanistan, the country has become a breeding ground for terrorism. Groups like Islamic State and other smaller terrorist organisations are using this period of instability to destabilise and consolidate their territories. Despite pushback from the Afghan government, especially against the Islamic State, smaller groups are still thriving under the unstable regime. Most notably, Al-Qaeda has strengthened its relationship with the Taliban government, allowing the core terror group to operate without persecution. The Taliban still have around three to four thousand foreign fighters working for the group, mostly from Pakistan and Central Asia. The flow of foreign fighters entering the country seems to have slowed. It appears that the Taliban government has been issuing valid passports to members of terror groups, including Al-Qaeda. These passports give terror operatives new identities, allowing them to travel internationally for recruitment. The vending of these false identities and the capability of international travel creates a wall of protection for terror operatives, making it harder for intelligence services to effectively identify them.

While the Taliban government has its terrorist allies, it also has a fair few enemies within the country. On top of the Islamic State in the Khorasan Province (ISKP), which is extremely active within the country, a report by ISIS indicates that ISKP has been involved in one hundred and eighty-one attacks since 2022. These operations are believed to have caused over one thousand casualties. Additionally, ISKP carries out significant attacks on business and infrastructural targets, including the foreign ministry, the Pakistani embassy, and a hotel where Chinese diplomats were staying. Though these attacks gradually decreased in the winter months, the rate of these attacks was staggering, with them happening so quickly one after another.

ISKP has found itself a new membership base through former Taliban members (from the Haqqani Network), foreign fighters from Pakistan (from the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)), and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). Through these means, ISKP has hundreds of new fighters who can launch multiple attacks at once, allowing for such a rapid frequency. The European Union Institute for Security Studies (2023) reports that membership for the group has doubled from around two thousand members to just over four thousand. This doubling of membership is not just from former members of other groups but also from previously detained members who escaped during the unrest when the Taliban took over the country. This diverse ISKP complicates counterterrorism for the Taliban, who would not want to anger factions within itself and would want to avoid any intra-factional conflict in the group.

This intra-factional conflict has occurred before in the Taliban, with former members breaking away from the official group to form the National Resistance Front, comprised mostly of former Taliban members and local militias. The NRF still carries out attacks on the governmental Taliban to this day.

ISKP attacks on foreign assets within Afghanistan have brought major international attention, particularly regarding attacks on Pakistani, Chinese, and Russian targets. ISKP targets any government that cooperates with the Taliban government, even launching rocket attacks on Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The constant attacks on Pakistani targets have soured relations between the two countries. Pakistan is not only a major investor in Afghanistan but also faces attacks from a Taliban-aligned group, the TTP. The TTP has been launching insurgency operations against Pakistan since 2014, but recently the group has become extremely well-structured, with a UN report fearing that the group has the potential to be extremely damaging to the Middle East. One worrying possibility is an alliance between the TTP and ISKP. In the past, the TTP had aligned itself with the Islamic State, so it would not be unprecedented. Even though it is operating against Pakistan, the Taliban government of Afghanistan protects the TTP and possibly assists it. Since 2022, the TTP has been strengthened through the re-joining of former splinter groups. This reuniting was facilitated by Al-Qaeda, an ally of the Taliban.

The terrorist issues are not just straining relations with Pakistan but also with China. China's concerns lie with the Taliban government's affiliations with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) or ETIM for short. ETIM desires to create an independent Uighur Muslim State, which encompasses land from Turkey, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region. The Chinese government believes the ETIM group has been influencing the over ten million Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang. The Uighurs are already under intense scrutiny by Chinese law enforcement for potential terror threats. The controlling Taliban have been attempting to influence ETIM fighters, though many security experts fear that these attempts to control the group will only push them closer to ISKP.

The Taliban government in Afghanistan has created a breeding ground for terrorism through its alliances and its enemies. All terror groups aligned with the government are being equipped and given the means for covert international travel, enabling them to recruit and launch attacks internationally. The enemies of the Taliban are consolidating with one another against a common enemy, bolstering terrorism in the Middle East. With significant security vacuums across Africa and the Middle East, it seems that these growing terror organisations can spread their influence. This situation is very similar to the early 2000s, with groups having the opportunity to grow their membership from foreign fighters and merge with other groups, creating large terror organisations.

https://www.iss.europa.eu/content/security-risks-emanating-afghanistan#_the_transnational_dimension__

Most Wanted: Prominent Abu Sayaff Member Arrested After Nearly 20 Years

Adingh being Arrested [Source: PNP]

One of the most prominent members of the Abu Sayaff Terrorist group was arrested in the Philippines. Abu Sayaff member Tatoh Datu Adingih was listed as the ninth most wanted man in the island province of Tawi-Tawi, where he had been hiding for sixteen years. Under the pseudonym Tatoh Moro, Adingh hid in Languyan for nearly two decades. On the 27th of April, the Philippines' 5th Special Action Battalion raided his hideout in Barangay Similac. The multi-organisational arrest was aided by BASULTA Regional Mobile Force Battalion, the Anti-Kidnapping Group, and the Philippine Navy. (Manila Bulletin, 2023)

Adingh was forced to surrender when faced with Philippine police, he was charged with murder. Adingh was identified through intense intelligence operations and tips from multiple informants.

https://mb.com.ph/2023/4/27/wanted-abu-sayyaf-man-arrested-in-tawi-tawi-after-26-years-of-hiding

Chopped Up Bodies & Mass Shootings: Violence in the Cartel Controlled Regions of Ecuador

Guayaquil After the Attack [Source: BBC]

The city of Esmeraldes in Ecuador is plagued by cartel violence, surpassing the levels witnessed in Colombia during the 1980s. Beheadings, killings, and assaults on women are all too common, leading to a staggering 180% increase in the murder rate from 2021 to 2022. The once peaceful nation, which had previously avoided the widespread violence associated with cartel epidemics, has now earned a reputation as the murder capital of the world. In an effort to tackle the escalating cartel violence, President Guillermo Lasso has enforced martial law in Esmeraldos.

However, martial law has proven ineffective in halting the cartel attacks. Just a few weeks after its imposition, the cartels beheaded three men, their heads subsequently discovered wrapped in black bags. Such methods of attack are distressingly frequent, with different cartel gangs employing distinctive "signatures" for their beheadings, whether it involves discarding the head in a plastic bag or removing the victim's intestines. Following these beheadings, many victims are hanged, their decapitated bodies left hanging from road signs, bridges, and buildings. Most recently, a massacre occurred at the city's port, where, in broad daylight, thirty members of the Los Tigeros gang opened fire on civilians, resulting in the deaths of nine innocent individuals. This audacious attack, carried out amidst a significant military presence and during daylight hours, was unprecedented. The heinous nature of the assault was so outrageous that Ecuador's Secretary of Defense, Diego Ordonez, resigned. It is believed that the port was targeted due to illicit dealings between boatmen and rival gangs. Esmeraldes' position as a port town on the border with Colombia makes it an ideal location for gangs to launch smuggling operations. Similar cartel attacks have also occurred near the port city of Guayaquil, resulting in three fatalities.

While hangings, beheadings, and shootings serve as public displays of cartel horror, there are also covert acts, including the kidnapping and torture of young women. In one instance, three young women were discovered in shallow graves near the Esmeraldes River. The violence in the region is extensive, involving multiple gangs not only from South America but also from different parts of the world.

The most notable European gang present in the violent regions of Ecuador is composed of Albanian traffickers who smuggle cocaine from South America to Britain and mainland Europe. The Albanian Gang is believed to be involved in an almost two billion pound cocaine enterprise that has permeated nearly every area of the UK. Ecuador serves as the starting point for these cocaine smuggling operations. The Albanian Mafia receives assistance in Ecuador from a street gang known as The Alligators. Other gangs are affiliated with prominent Mexican cartels, carrying out their bidding hundreds of miles away in Ecuador. The two largest cartels operating in Ecuador are the Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation Cartel, both of which employ street gangs. The aforementioned Tiguerones are aligned with the Jalisco Cartel, alongside the Wolves and Chinolone Gangs. The rival Sinaloa cartel has the Panatones, The Gangsters, and the Choneros. These gangs have filled the void left by the now-weakened FARC and other powerful Colombian cartels. Ecuador has become a highly sought-after territory for Mexican and European gangs to conduct lucrative drug smuggling enterprises. In an interview with VICE (2023), Derek Maltz, a former head of the DEA Special Operations Division, stated, "The Mexican cartels are expanding not only north of the border but also south of the border and pretty much around the world... They approach it like a Fortune 500 company, considering the best countries for their product. They are flooding Europe with cocaine."

The situation in Ecuador is dire. The government appears to be struggling to control the spread of this criminal activity, even with the implementation of martial law. President Lasso, who is facing unrelated impeachment charges, seems to be losing his grip on the country, with his approval rating plummeting to thirteen percent. Lasso has sought to strengthen relations with the US. Perhaps future cooperation in drug enforcement between the nations can help curb the power of these drug gangs.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/xgwxyn/ecuador-mexico-drug-war-cocaine

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11989507/How-violence-spiralling-control-cartel-ravaged-region-Ecuador.html

Terror In Mali: The Terror Resurgents and a Military Massacre

Still from a Video of the Attack Aftermath [Source: Africa News]

A resurgence of terror has occurred in the African nation of Mali amid a UN investigation into the unlawful killing of civilians. On 23rd April, eighty-eight Jihadists launched bombing attacks on Mali's Savare Airport. Around five in the morning, bombs exploded, destroying multiple buildings and resulting in thirteen deaths. The area is not only an airport but also contains buildings belonging to the nearby military base. In addition to the thirteen deceased, three of whom were soldiers, sixty-one people were injured. In an interview (Africa News, 2023), one resident of Savare recounted the day of the attack, "We heard noises after the prayer, around 5:30 am, 5:40 am [...] Some people thought that a building had collapsed but came to ask us for help at the station. We went to the camp to inform the commander. We also alerted the civil protection. Around 6:00 am, the authorities arrived, and together we extracted the injured and dead. It was really difficult." No group has come forward to claim responsibility for the attacks, but many believe that this large-scale attack is a sign that terror will return to the nation.

Since 2020, the Malian Government began to distance itself from the West and turned to Russia's Wagner Group to aid in counter-terror operations. Mali's Junta Government is under close scrutiny due to an ongoing human rights investigation. In operations against terrorists last year, it was alleged that the Malian Army, along with unidentified Western fighters, killed five hundred unarmed villagers. The massacre being investigated is alleged to have occurred on 27th March of last year when Malian and Russian helicopters descended on the town of Moura. The villagers began to flee as the military forces opened fire. Around five hundred civilians were killed and thrown into ditches. Witnesses to this attack immediately spoke out, triggering the UN to launch a fact-finding mission to Mali, which was blocked multiple times. An internal investigation by Mali's Junta found that all those killed were confirmed terrorists. In a UN Report released on 12th May, a year after the massacre, it was found that the government had violated the Human Rights Act. A spokesman for Mali, Abdoulaye Maiga, claimed that the UN's decision was made to destabilise the Malian Government. He said, "No civilian from Moura lost their life during the military operation. Among the dead, there were only terrorist fighters, and all those arrested were handed over to the gendarmerie". (Inquirer, 2023) This UN report is the dawn of a difficult period in Mali. Not only will the report have huge ramifications on the international stage but also comes at a time when radical jihadism is growing rapidly.

Reference list

AfricaNews and Churm, P. (2023). Blasts in Mali kill and injure dozens amid resurgence of ‘terrorist incidents’. [online] Africanews. Available at: https://www.africanews.com/2023/04/23/blasts-in-mali-kill-and-injure-dozens-as-government-fears-resurgence-of-terrorist-incident/ [Accessed 14 May 2023].

Reuters (2023). Mali rejects UN report on alleged execution of 500 villagers by troops. [online] INQUIRER.net. Available at: https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1769094/mali-rejects-un-report-on-alleged-execution-of-500-villagers-by-troops [Accessed 14 May 2023].

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The New Zealand Pilot Captured by Papua Sepratists

The New Zealand Pilot Captured by Papua Separatists

In February of this year, a small plane carried five passengers to the hazardous area of Paro in the mountainous region of Nduga, Indonesia. When the plane landed, armed members of the Free Papua Organisation stormed it, capturing the New Zealand pilot. All the other passengers were Papuan, so they were spared. The pilot, however, faced a more uncertain fate when the armed rebel group set the empty plane alight. The pilot, Philop Max Mehrten, was taken hostage by the group, who vowed to only free him when West Papua was recognized as independent by the Indonesian Government. Sammy Sebbo, the spokesman of the West Papua National Liberation Army, the armed branch of the Free Papua Organisation, said in a statement, "We have taken the pilot hostage, and we are bringing him out [...] We will never release the pilot we are holding hostage unless Indonesia recognizes and frees Papua from Indonesian colonialism [...] New Zealand, Australia, and America must be held accountable for what they have done, helping the Indonesian military to kill and genocide indigenous Papuans in the past 60 years". (The Guardian, 2023) The Papua police couldn't launch rescue operations due to mountainous jungle terrain. Military rescue operations weren't established either, leaving Mehrten as the rebels' captive.

While all this occurred in February, recent footage released by the FPO revealed the pilot for the first time since his capture. In the video, Mehrten is seen surrounded by armed men. He is forced to say, "Indonesia must recognize Papua as independent". (The Guardian, 2023) The FPO members in the video ensured he would remain safe but would only be released when independence is granted. The released video sparked renewed outrage at Indonesian authorities. The Papuan police chief has told The Guardian that negotiations for his release are ongoing, attempting to converse with local church leaders to obtain Mehrten's release.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/14/indonesian-separatists-release-video-of-nz-pilot-they-took-hostage

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/08/separatists-fighters-in-papua-hold-new-zealand-pilot-hostage