The UN's Monitor Report: Fighting Al Qaeda and Islamic State in Africa

On July 24th, the UN Security Council released a Monitor Report on Al Qaeda and Islamic State, updating the world on the ongoing fight against the two largest terror organisations. Though the report looks at multiple areas of the world, in this article we will solely focus on the developments made against the terror groups in the African continent. Updates from other continents will be covered in another article. 

North Africa

In the north of the continent, both terror groups were found to be at their weakest. In the past few years, major affiliate organisations in North Africa have been hit hard. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has moved into northern Mali. Islamic State affiliate, Jund al-Khilafah in Tunisia (JAK-T) is facing major financing issues. Following the deaths of many of its prominent members, JAK-T is believed to be hiding in the Samama Mountains in Tunisia. There are believed to be only fifteen members left of this group. 

In Morocco, there has been immense success in fighting these terror organisations. Counter-terror authorities have shut down five terrorist cells that were working with the Core Islamic State organisation or its affiliate in the Great Sahara (ISGS). In total, twenty-five people were arrested, with one cell having plans to rob banks across Morocco to fund IS terror operations.

In Libya, the fight against Islamic State has been frought with difficulty due to the affiliate's connections to organised crime. The affiliate, Islamic State in the Levant-Libya (ISIL-Libya), has close links to organised crime groups that control trafficking routes in the country. The report also suggests that ISIL-Libya are attempting to infiltrate local tribes to aid in recruitment, especially in the south of the country. One of the scariest things revealed by the report is that ISIL-Libya is focusing its efforts on recruiting chemists and scientists in hopes of committing more sophisticated attacks. The group has around three hundred to five hundred members and is currently based in southern Libya, where they are free from Government intervention. The Government in Libya is still unstable and does not have full control over the entire country. The south, and some central regions, are absent from any Government or authority. Their close relationships with organised criminals have allowed them to reorganise themselves in the Fezzan Province. The UN Report also indicates that ISIL-Libya may have training camps in Fezzan, where they train fighters going to West Africa and the Sahel. 

Despite the reorganisation of the group, Libyan authorities have dismantled several terror cells. Most notably, an engineer was arrested when he was attempting to sabotage gas pipelines using armed drones. More concerning, was the handbook retrieved whilst arresting the engineer. The book contained instructions on how to create poison and biological weapons. It is believed these plans come directly from the ISIL Core.

Intelligence gathering against the group has been diligent and thorough, with the structure of the organisation being known. ISIL-Libya is believed to be divided into four sub-groups each specialising in different areas of terror operation. The sub-groups consist of a bombmaking team, a security team, fighters and a military commission. 

Al Qaeda has also entrenched itself in southern Libya. Much like the Islamic State in the south, Al Qaeda uses its position in southern Libya to support its affiliates in the Sahel. The report also indicates that ISIL-Libya and Al-Qaeda in southern Libya collaborate and share resources. Al Qaeda has a much smaller force of only one hundred and fifty to three hundred fighters in southern Libya. Most of these fighters are moving through the area to countries like Niger, Mali and Sudan. It is also believed that these operations are aided by the Tuareg, a semi-nomadic, ethnic group in southern Libya. Intelligence also suggests that Libyan terror groups are using the instability in Sudan to transport fighters to and from West Africa.

Libyan Counter-terror Forces

In Egypt, the Al Qaeda-aligned group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM) have been nearly destroyed by counter-terror forces. According to the UN Report, local and core structures of the terror organisation have been largely disbanded. The last major attack by the group occurred in December 2022 and is viewed as an act of desperation, with the group's total members estimated to be in the tens or low hundreds. The group's activities in the Sinai Peninsula have been heavily affected by Egypt's investment in local infrastructure and community outreach. Where local communities once acted as potential recruitment sites for the group, now they are aligned with Egypt's Government. 

West Africa 

In West Africa, affiliate groups play an instrumental role in creating instability. As it becomes more difficult to communicate with the faltering core groups, local affiliates' autonomy is the biggest terror threat in West Africa. One group in particular, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam Wal-muslimin (JNIM), currently poses the biggest threat to West African nations. Previously, the group were contained in Mali, but now it seems they have ramped up operations in Burkina Faso. It's believed the increase in operations is being done to apply pressure on local authorities during negotiations. With the escalation of the group's tactics, it seems the once Al Qaeda-affiliated group is now distancing itself from the core organisation. Not only is it straying from Al-Qaeda's core doctrine, but also separating itself from local affiliated groups. In battle, JNIM do not fight under the Al Qaeda flag, but under their own banner. JINM's new terror campaign in Burkina Faso has brought with it many issues for the group. Since JNIM encompasses a number of local fighters, usually beliefs and agendas conflict with one another creating tension within the organisation. 

Despite expanding as an organisation, it seems as if JNIM can not compete with the Islamic State in the Great Sahara (ISGS), the IS affiliate in West Africa. The Tri-Border area between Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali has become a warring ground for terror organisations. JNIM has suffered major losses at the hands of ISGS, despite fighting alongside Tuareg Militias in the area. It is important to note that these losses for JNIM in border areas do not reflect the group's control further West. Intelligence suggests that Mali's capital is encircled by JNIM, allowing them full control of the entire area up to the southern border. Through local battalions, JNIM can control local political and security disputes. Mali's weak military is also unable to properly fight back against the terror group. The report also implies that the expanded presence of the Wagner Group has done little to combat the influence of JNIM. From these controlled positions in Mali, JNIM can effectively launch attacks in Burkina Faso and the southern Sahel. 

The strongest of these JNIM battalions is the Katiba Macina, a force which acts almost autonomously from the rest of the JNIM organisation. The Katiba Macina are most active in Burkina Faso, where the force takes advantage of the instability created by locals, making it hard to distinguish between JNIM advances or just community clashes. They also work closely with the rebel group Ansarul Islam. With their most powerful battalion in Burkina Faso, JNIM has a commanding presence over authorities. JNIM's desire to expand to the southern border of Burkina Faso has also created spillover terrorism in regions of Benin, Togo and Niger.

JNIM Fighters in the Sahel

Unlike Al Qaeda affiliates, ISGS remain dedicated to the Core organisation of the Islamic State. The IS affiliate has had some major setbacks with leading members being killed by International forces and by the JNIM. The leadership of ISGS is primarily Arab, with some Fulani deputies. Most of the affiliate's fighters are of Fulani descent. The report believes that this creates a huge potential for infighting and internal descension within the affiliate group. The predominantly Fulani fighting force of ISGS has inadvertently restricted the group's expansion. Many of the Fulani fighters of ISGS do not want to participate in fratricide, as most of the Katiba Macina are also of Fulani descent. This and the fact that ISGS fighters are stretched thin across multiple fronts make the affiliate's advances a lot slower than first expected. Niger seems to be ISGS' new prime target, with multiple attacks taking place across northern regions of the country. These attacks aim to strengthen their supply and recruitment routes from Nigeria. 

Central and Southern Africa

We will start this section by looking at the ongoing situation in Mozambique, where the Islamic State-affiliated terror organisation Ahlu Sunna Wal-Jama (ASWJ) continues its campaign. ASWJ are a smaller force of around one hundred and eighty to two hundred fighters. Despite their size, they carry out attacks relentlessly. Since January, the UN Report states that nearly sixty-five members have been killed. Even though this was a major blow to the terror group, displaced fighters would form small terror cells to continue carrying out attacks. Mozambique and South African Development Community counter-terror forces have launched numerous attacks on the group, targeting their leadership. These have been a success with an overall decrease in terror attacks and civilian deaths.

One way ASWJ is attempting to survive is through inroads with local communities. Specifically trying to forge relationships with farmers and small businesses. The UN Report believes that this is being done in an attempt to sustain the group economically. Despite being an affiliate group of IS, there is no evidence to suggest that ASWJ is taking orders from the Core organisation. Most of the foreign fighters for the group come from surrounding African nations, like Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a joint operation between the army and Ugandan forces continues to take place against the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). Operation Sujaa, as it is known, has been incredibly successful. ADF bases have been raided, over four hundred fighters have been killed, eighty-one were arrested and just over one-hundred and fifty-one abductees were freed. The most notable success of Operation Sujaa was the assassination of Mulalo Seguja, the leader of the ADF's political faction. 

The success of the counter-terror operations has not stopped the ADF's attacks. In the eastern region of North Kivu, the ADF used a large IED to kill sixteen civilians and injure sixty others. The IED was the biggest made by the ADF. The device is believed to have weighed anywhere from seven to ten kilograms. These large explosives seem to be used by a specific ADF General, named Abwakasi. It is thought that over five hundred civilians had been killed by the ADF in the past six months. It is also believed that the ADF has an overall size of one thousand five hundred to two thousand fighters. The group has pledged allegiance to the Islamic State, but there is no evidence they are taking orders from the terror organisation.

East Africa

One of the biggest counter-offensives going on in the continent of Africa right now is the one against Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Airstrikes and raids against leading members have been extremely successful. Leaders of the financial wing of the terror group have been targeted to curb the massive revenue they pull in from extortion. The report estimates that the group collects $100 million per year. The terror group is believed to have between seven thousand to twelve thousand members. 

Retaliatory attacks from Al-Shabaab have occurred, mainly against members of ATMIS, the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia. Just a few months ago, five hundred Al-Shabaab fighters attacked a Ugandan ATMIS military base. ATMIS, Somali and US forces plan on advancing further south as the counter-offensive against the group continues. These southern areas, specifically Middle and Lower Juba, are key locations for the terror group. It is expected that the severity of the fighting will increase, as Al-Shabaab desperately defend these important positions.

Intelligence also suggests that there is a small Islamic State presence in Somalia. The small force of around one hundred to two hundred fighters is located in Puntland. The report suggests the group is struggling to expand due to constant attacks by Al-Shabaab. In January, Islamic State in Somalia was hit hard after one of their chief finance officers was killed by the US. This hurt the group's massive network of financial hubs that they have across Africa. One aspect of the Islamic State in Somalia that the report focused on was the Al-Karrar Office, a financial hub that sends money to other affiliate groups. Some member states believe that the Al-Karrar Office is the financial backbone of the Islamic State, whilst others claim these numbers are overestimated. These other member states believe that the al-Furqan Office in West Africa is the real financial backbone of the group. 

ATMIS Soldiers in Somalia

Many member states also fear that terror groups will take advantage of the current instability in Sudan. Specifically, Islamic State. Since 2019, there has been an IS terror cell in the country led by Abu Bakr Al-Iraqi. Orders from the IS Core tasked the IS leader with creating a terror cell. The cell is believed to be made up of one hundred to two hundred members. Its main purpose seems to be a logistical one, though many member states fear this will change. The report also indicates that Al-Iraqi has set up several fake investment/money-transfer businesses registered in Sudan and Türkiye. Al-Iraqi has also made substantial investments in Sudanese businesses. 

The Ongoing Coup in Niger: What We Know

News has just broken that the President of Niger has been removed from power. Sources from within the nation report that the military is holding President Mohamed Bazoum in the presidential palace. Colonel Amadou Abdramane, surrounded by officers, read a statement declaring that the takeover is occurring due to the worsening security within the country. We previously reported that Boko Haram fighters were strengthening their forces in Niger, after being repelled from Niger by the stronger Islamic State of the Great Sahara. Since then, it appears more Islamic State fighters have been conducting attacks in the country, leading to a major security crisis. 

Colonel Abdramane also declared the country is on a nationwide lockdown, with all borders closed and a curfew being instated. In addition to this, the Colonel warned other nations to not get involved, stating that the situation is under control. This coup comes as a blow to the former French colony, as Bazoum was the first democratically elected president in the nation's history. His potential ousting from power is a strike against democracy in West Africa which; has seen six other coups since 2020. 

It is unclear whether the coup was successful or not, as of yet. A successful coup will come as a major blow to Western nations, that are actively fighting jihadism in Western Africa. Niger was a close ally of many European nations including France and Germany. Just last year, France moved many of its forces into Niger, after talks broke down with the Mali Government. Just this April, Germany announced a plan to improve Niger's armed forces. A successful coup would also be disastrous for the United States, who send hundreds of millions of dollars to the country to boost security capabilities. 

The situation in Niger is still unknown. Some unconfirmed reports on social media say that the Presidential Guards are behind the coup. It's believed the presidential palace and neighbouring Government building are being occupied by said guards. Military vehicles are currently blocking off all entrances to the building. So far, it seems the Presidential Guard does not have the support of the country's military. Bazoum's supporters tried to get close to the palace but guardsmen opened fire to disperse the crowd. The official Twitter account for the presidency declared that the guards were taking part in an 'anti-republican' demonstration. 

Once again, it is not known whether the coup has been successful or not. Another unconfirmed report from social media states that the Presidential Guards are alone in their occupation of the palace and that no other security service is involved. 

The Counter-Offensive Against Al-Shabaab: Is it Successful? 

Kenyan Security Forces

In Somalia, the fight against terror rages on. All cylinders are firing as the US, African Union and Somali fighters strike back against the terror organisation, Al-Shabaab. The US airstrikes remain a pivotal asset to the Somali Government. Their repeated success has previously incapacitated a leading member of the group. More recently, it has targeted Al-Shabaab encampments in rural Somalia. One strike, near Afmadow, left ten terror operatives dead. That same day (July 9th 2023), 40 kilometres away from Afmadow, joint Kenyan-Somali forces raided an Al-Shabaab weapons depot. The facility, which also acted as a bomb-making factory, was overrun in the early morning. Allied airstrikes supported the coordinated military operation that left 40 militants dead. Not only were weapons and explosives recovered from the site, but also 200,000 Kenyan Shillings (£1080 as of 2023). 

On the 12th of July, another Somali-Kenyan joint operation raided an Al-Shabaab hideout in Weelmarow village. The raid eliminated 50 militants and captured the Finance Chief in charge of the Lower Yuba area. It seems the current plan to eradicate Al-Shabaab is to stop its funding. A few weeks ago, we reported that Finance Chiefs were targeted by Somali forces. With another eliminated this week, the group is not only losing soldiers but also its revenue streams.

The following day, on the 13th of July, Somali special forces raided multiple Al-Shabaab hideouts across the Shabelle Region. It has not been disclosed how many suspects were arrested, but it is known that multiple arrests were made. That same day, Kenyan security agencies arrested two Tanzanian men attempting to join Al-Shabaab. They were found with notebooks which directed them to Al-Shabaab hideouts in Somalia. Upon interrogation, the suspects revealed they were recruited to the group by handlers in Tanzania. This demonstrates that Al-Shabaab has a wider, terror recruitment network that spans East Africa, which has gone unaffected by the counter-offensive. 

A Burnt Car Following the Attacks in Mandera

Following the relentless raids, it seems Al-Shabaab rushed to retaliate. On the 14th of July, multiple groups of terrorists began launching attacks across Mandera County in Northern Kenya. The first group targeted the only telephone mast in the town of Iresuki, whilst the second group targeted the Jabibar Quick Response Unit camp. The third attacked the Kenyan military base in Elwak. The final group launched an attack on the Waragud Police station. The ambush left two police officers and a teacher dead. After the attacks, the groups burnt parked cars in the street. A joint Kenyan security force mobilised immediately after being notified of the attacks. So far, only two suspects have been arrested for their involvement in the attacks. The two men were found at a construction site with weapons and large amounts of cash, that were stolen during the Mandela County attacks. 

A follow-up coordinated attack occurred across all of Somalia al occurred. These attacks started when a suicide bomber attacked the Hodan District in Somalia's capital, Mogadishu. The Hodan District mostly housed military officers and their families. The attack injured two notable military leaders who had coordinated attacks against Al-Shabaab in the past. At the same time, militants attacked a security checkpoint in the Dayniile District of Mogadishu. They overrun the security forces stationed there and destroyed the checkpoint. 

In the Middle Shabelle, terrorists attacked an ATMIS (African Union Transition Mission in Somalia) base. Fortunately for the citizens of Somalia, ATMIS forces forced Al-Shabaab to retreat. In Lower Shabelle, IED attacks devasted local security forces. The number of casualties has not been released, but many fear it will be high. Further attacks occurred closer to the Kenyan border, with Al-Shabaab taking over the military base. Following an African Union protocol, The military base was handed back to Somali forces just a week ago. Experts believed that Somali forces could protect the area on their own. Now it sits under the control of terrorists.

Whilst continued success from Allied forces shows that Al-Shabaab can be easily combatted, the severity and unexpectedness of these retaliatory attacks demonstrate the power of the terror group. The summer counter-offensive has been successful on many fronts, but these attacks have been the biggest setback yet. The ongoing situation remains murky, with the full extent of the attacks not being revealed. It seems the following months of the counter-offensive will ramp up to curb subsequent, identical, nationwide attacks. 

The End of the United Nations Peace Mission in Mali

After a vote held at the end of June, the UN Security Council has decided to withdraw peacekeeping forces from Mali. Previously, Mali's military junta denounced the peacekeeping forces stating that they caused more issues than they stopped. This refusal to work with UN forces was the final nail in the coffin of the UN's mission in Mali, as it would be unprecedented to continue a mission without the cooperation of the host nation. The UN's Security Council Vote formerly put an end to the peacekeeping mission. 

To the many European nations participating in the peacekeeping mission, the end of the peacekeeping missions marks the start of Mali's new alliance with Russia. The Russian mercenary company, the Wagner Group, has a large presence in Africa protecting regimes from attempted coups. With the recent events involving the Wagner Group and the Russian government, it is uncertain whether the Wagner Group will aid Mali's junta. Despite the uncertainty, Mali's government is taking a step toward democracy with elections in the country being held just a few weeks ago. 

Many security experts think that believe that the end of the peacekeeping mission in Mali leaves the country open to Islamic extremism. Previous rebel groups were promised a role in constitutional conversations under a UN agreement. The withdrawal from the UN leaves the groups involved in the Azawad Movements with no peaceful way to negotiate with the government, which will likely lead to another rebellion. Experts also believe that Mali's military is simply not equipped to deal with the rampant extremism within the country, with Bloomberg describing the armed forces as "ramshackle". Many believe that the military junta will struggle to hold onto control, especially now they have distanced themselves from Western allies. 

Iran's Fostering of Terrorism Against Israel

The Lions' Den Group

On June 25th, Cypriot authorities foiled an attempted attack on an Israeli businessman. Counter-terror intelligence suggests that the attack was actually orchestrated by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a branch of the country's armed forces. This is the most recent instance of the Iranian government's repeated attacks against Israel, either in an official capacity or by supporting terror operatives.

 

Earlier this year, Greek counter-terror authorities apprehended two Pakistani nationals who were aided by the Iranian Government. The two men planned on committing an attack against an Israeli-owned restaurant. The IRGC has also been linked to several other terror plots in the past, with the most recent occurring just last year in Turkey. Intelligence from Shin Bet, the Israeli security agency, suggests that the Palestinian militant organisation Lions' Den is being aided and supported by the Iranian Government. The Lions' Den is often well-equipped with automatic weapons and tactical gear, which seems to have been supplied by the Iranian Government. The agency's director Ronen Bar also suggested that Islamic State has also aided terror attacks against Israel. 

With the instances of Iran fostering terrorism against Israel becoming more common, one wonders whether it will affect the country's relationship with other nations. On multiple occasions, Iran has aided terrorism within multiple other countries. The involvement of the IRGC indicates that these operations are far from secret, but rather openly carried out by the country's armed forces.