The Ongoing Unrest & Coup in Gabon 

General Brice Oligui Nguema being celebrated in the streets

After President Ali Bongo of Gabon announced that he had been successfully re-elected on the 30th of August, all seemed fine within Gabon. However, just hours later gunfire and unrest were heard in the country's capital, Libreville. The election had already been fraught with rumours and claims of corruption. During the midst of this unrest, military officers appeared on state television to disavow the election. The gunfire in the capital was the start of a coup, which would see President Bongo ousted from power and have one of his sons in custody. In a video released during the coup, Bongo can be seen in his decadent house calling his supporters to prevent his removal. The former President also called for international intervention to prevent another African coup. Gabon's military had removed Bongo as President and selected General Brice Oligui Nguema as the country's new transitional leader. Members of Bongo's opposition and supporters of the military took to the streets to celebrate the ousting of the former President, who had ruled the country for over a decade. The country's new leader, General Nguema, was paraded through the streets by soldiers and supporters.

Former President Bongo calling for international intervention against the coup

Bongo's family had ruled Gabon since the 1960s, with the title of President being passed down. Ali Bongo would take charge in 2009 after the death of his father. His poor handling of the country since, and dubious elections, had led to him becoming a hated figure within his own country. News of his third term as President was something that outraged many across the country, including the country's military. The leader of the opposition party, Albert Ondo Odesa, claimed that many polling stations across the country did not contain ballots with his name on. News of his third term was harrowing to many, so the military removed him from power. Bongo had handled the country poorly through the COVID pandemic and through the country's economic struggles. The pandemic and lockdown devastated the Gabonese economy, with nearly 40% of 15 to 24-year-olds out of work. Gabon is one of Africa's biggest oil exporters, but such profits have not been reinvested in the country's infrastructure or economy. It was estimated that $6 billion in revenue was created through oil production and exportation. This money was hoarded by a few, including former President Bongo. Bongo also had to take a medical leave from leading the country as he suffered from a stroke in 2018. This health scare did not cause him to resign, despite many calling for him to do so. Nguema himself was very close to Bongo's father, becoming one of his closest advisors in the later stage of his life. After he passed away, he took many important roles within the country's military, even replacing Ali Bongo's half-brother as intelligence chief.

Despite all of these issues, intelligence analysts believe that the election was merely an excuse for the military to claim power. The fact that the coup happened so quickly indicates that the armed forces had planned this in advance, making it unlikely that this was done purely based on electoral results. Those who came out in support of the army didn't do so because they endorsed the armed forces, but because they despised the corrupt leadership of Bongo. This marks the 8th coup in Africa since 2020. Gabon sits as an outlier to the previous coups. Countries like Niger and Mali all face major problems with violent extremism, while in comparison, Gabon is a relatively stable country. Around the world, the coup has been condemned. Western nations like the US have implored that civilian leadership be reinstated in Gabon. Countries across Africa have also spoken out against the military coup. Members of the Economic Community of Central Africa have condemned the actions of the military.

Military Officers condemning President Bongo's Third Term on Television

The alarming number of coups in Africa, especially those which were former French colonies, is not seen as a pattern, according to the US National Security Council. On Wednesday, during a press conference, the council's spokesman John Kirby said, "It's too soon to do a table slap here and say, 'yep, we've got a trend here going' or 'yep, we've got a domino effect."

The celbrations following the coup

Turning the Tide: The Second Stage of the Counteroffensive against Al-Shabaab in Somalia 

We have previously reported on the multiple triumphs that the Somali government has achieved in their counteroffensive against Al-Shabaab. Now, it seems that the counteroffensive is entering its second stage. With the presence of the militant group reduced in the northern regions, the Somali army is now deploying into the central and lower regions of the country. These regions are pivotal for Al-Shabaab, both strategically and logistically. In the UN monitoring report, they expect that the fighting in these regions would become intense, with Al-Shabaab desperately defending their most valuable territories.

On the 18th of July, it was reported that Somalia has begun its push into the central regions. Joined by their ATMIS and US counterparts, the Somali army began setting up base camps across the HirShabelle and Galmadug states. This initial push into these territories has resulted in the death of over 3,000 Al-Shabaab militants, according to reports. With this mass deployment of the Somali army across the area, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has also requested additional non-ATMIS troops from Djibouti, Kenya, and Ethiopia to fortify the Somali lines.

Intelligence gathering on the group has also become much easier. Three years ago, the Somali High Court ruled that it was illegal for the government to tap the phones of suspected Al-Shabaab financiers. Now, after a long appeal, that verdict has been overturned. The Somali Government can actively track suspected leaders of the group through text and cell phone data. Defense CS Duale asked for the continued support of Somalis in the fight against terror. After the verdict, Duale called out the terror group directly. He said, 'I give a straightforward message to the leadership rank and file of Al-Shabaab. We will hunt you down using all the security apparatus at our disposal. We will work with other nations in IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) to hunt you down, even in Somalia, and get you. We will protect the territorial and sovereign integrity of our people.'

The Dulmi Diid Militia

In military operations, US, Somali, and ATMIS forces have seen continued success. US-backed operations on the 19th of July led to the death of over 100 Al-Shabaab fighters in the Middle Shabelle Region. A few days later, US airstrikes killed 5 more terror operatives. Local militias have also been invaluable in fighting the terror organization. In the southwest of the country, an armed militia calling themselves Dulmi Diid, meaning 'opposing the oppression,' has established itself. The group, mainly composed of ethnic Rahanwein individuals, is taking the fight to Al-Shabaab in their own territory. Dulmi Diid was formed to end the oppressive rule of Al-Shabaab over the lower regions. Al-Shabaab recently blockaded the city of Baidoa, leaving hundreds of people without fuel, water, and food. Dulmi Diid has been actively fighting against this blockade. The group isn’t just militaristic; they have also called for more cooperation between the national and local state governments. These collaborative military efforts are working wonders against the terror group. It is expected that by December 2024, these regions will be free from Al-Shabaab control.

While the second stage of the counteroffensive has been successful so far, Al-Shabaab is still carrying out attacks regularly. Al-Shabaab is incredibly effective at funding itself through extortion and taxation. According to the US State Department, the group pulls in nearly $120 million a year. It is thought that $24 million of this sum goes towards purchasing weapons from abroad. The rest goes to pay fighters and fund operations outside of the country. Additionally, it is believed that these funds are also used to pay foreign fighters from other African countries. Recently, men from Uganda and Tanzania were caught by security forces as they were traveling to an Al-Shabaab stronghold to join the group. Going after the financial structures of the terror group is a necessary part of this second stage. As mentioned previously, Somali courts have now allowed phone tapping and deeper surveillance against suspected financiers. At the end of July, President Mohamud met with Brian Nelson, the Under Secretary of the US Treasury for Financial Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. In the meeting, the successes of the Somali Government’s fight against financial crime were revealed. Over 250 Al-Shabaab-associated bank accounts were closed, and 70 money-wiring firms associated with the group were shut down. The US had also gathered a list of suspected financiers who were being surveyed and blacklisted from flights to the US. Restricting the group's finances would cripple the group, removing any incentive for foreign fighters to join and limiting the scale of their operations.

The Post-Coup Pro-Russian Movement Spreading Through Niger

After the alleged coup that occurred on the 26th of July, it seems support for Russia has spread throughout the country. The largest pro-Russian demonstration took place in the capital of Niamey, where hundreds took to the street displaying Russian flags. This outpouring of support for Russia appears to be reflecting the values of the alleged new leader of the country, General Abdourahamane Tchiani. 

Previous President, Mohamed Bazoum was an ally of many Western nations, including France. Bazoum's relationship was so close with France that the European nation had a military base in Niger. French armed forces would also cooperate with Nigerien forces when fighting extremists. The new pro-Russian stance adopted by Niger follows in the footsteps of many other African nations who seek aid from the Wagner Group. 

Members of this pro-Russian movement are not only siding with Russia because of security, but also because they distrust the French Government. Citizens see them as a force that exploits the resources of Niger for their gain. Niger is the seventh largest exporter of uranium in the world, something that France takes advantage of. Whilst the West is harvesting resources in their nation, most Nigerien citizens live in poverty, with two in five people living on just two dollars a day. 

Nigerien Security Forces Dispersing a pro-Russian Crowd

Throughout 2022, former President Bazoum banned French protests, after much public outrage directed at the country. Civil groups would form the M62 Coalition to protest against the rising costs of living, poor quality of life and the French forces stationed within the country. For the M62 Coalition and the plethora of other pro-Russian groups, they hope an alliance with Russia will bring with it more technology and better access to resources. 

This huge surge of pro-Russian movements may also indicate that Russia was behind the coup. That is according to Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian President. He took to social media to claim that the coup was another Russian attempt at disrupting global stability. In a statement made on the 31st of July, a spokesperson for Russia described the coup as, 'deeply concerning'. The only party who praised the coup was Wagner President, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Priogozhin said that the move is a step toward independence from the West. The Wagner Group has already been established as a force used by many other former-French, now pro-Russian West African countries, including Mali and Burkina Faso. The Wagner Group has not claimed responsibility for the coup. Further statements from the Russian Government called for restraint to be shown on all sides and hoped for a return to stability for the country of Niger.