The Ongoing Coup in Niger: What We Know

News has just broken that the President of Niger has been removed from power. Sources from within the nation report that the military is holding President Mohamed Bazoum in the presidential palace. Colonel Amadou Abdramane, surrounded by officers, read a statement declaring that the takeover is occurring due to the worsening security within the country. We previously reported that Boko Haram fighters were strengthening their forces in Niger, after being repelled from Niger by the stronger Islamic State of the Great Sahara. Since then, it appears more Islamic State fighters have been conducting attacks in the country, leading to a major security crisis. 

Colonel Abdramane also declared the country is on a nationwide lockdown, with all borders closed and a curfew being instated. In addition to this, the Colonel warned other nations to not get involved, stating that the situation is under control. This coup comes as a blow to the former French colony, as Bazoum was the first democratically elected president in the nation's history. His potential ousting from power is a strike against democracy in West Africa which; has seen six other coups since 2020. 

It is unclear whether the coup was successful or not, as of yet. A successful coup will come as a major blow to Western nations, that are actively fighting jihadism in Western Africa. Niger was a close ally of many European nations including France and Germany. Just last year, France moved many of its forces into Niger, after talks broke down with the Mali Government. Just this April, Germany announced a plan to improve Niger's armed forces. A successful coup would also be disastrous for the United States, who send hundreds of millions of dollars to the country to boost security capabilities. 

The situation in Niger is still unknown. Some unconfirmed reports on social media say that the Presidential Guards are behind the coup. It's believed the presidential palace and neighbouring Government building are being occupied by said guards. Military vehicles are currently blocking off all entrances to the building. So far, it seems the Presidential Guard does not have the support of the country's military. Bazoum's supporters tried to get close to the palace but guardsmen opened fire to disperse the crowd. The official Twitter account for the presidency declared that the guards were taking part in an 'anti-republican' demonstration. 

Once again, it is not known whether the coup has been successful or not. Another unconfirmed report from social media states that the Presidential Guards are alone in their occupation of the palace and that no other security service is involved. 

The Counter-Offensive Against Al-Shabaab: Is it Successful? 

Kenyan Security Forces

In Somalia, the fight against terror rages on. All cylinders are firing as the US, African Union and Somali fighters strike back against the terror organisation, Al-Shabaab. The US airstrikes remain a pivotal asset to the Somali Government. Their repeated success has previously incapacitated a leading member of the group. More recently, it has targeted Al-Shabaab encampments in rural Somalia. One strike, near Afmadow, left ten terror operatives dead. That same day (July 9th 2023), 40 kilometres away from Afmadow, joint Kenyan-Somali forces raided an Al-Shabaab weapons depot. The facility, which also acted as a bomb-making factory, was overrun in the early morning. Allied airstrikes supported the coordinated military operation that left 40 militants dead. Not only were weapons and explosives recovered from the site, but also 200,000 Kenyan Shillings (£1080 as of 2023). 

On the 12th of July, another Somali-Kenyan joint operation raided an Al-Shabaab hideout in Weelmarow village. The raid eliminated 50 militants and captured the Finance Chief in charge of the Lower Yuba area. It seems the current plan to eradicate Al-Shabaab is to stop its funding. A few weeks ago, we reported that Finance Chiefs were targeted by Somali forces. With another eliminated this week, the group is not only losing soldiers but also its revenue streams.

The following day, on the 13th of July, Somali special forces raided multiple Al-Shabaab hideouts across the Shabelle Region. It has not been disclosed how many suspects were arrested, but it is known that multiple arrests were made. That same day, Kenyan security agencies arrested two Tanzanian men attempting to join Al-Shabaab. They were found with notebooks which directed them to Al-Shabaab hideouts in Somalia. Upon interrogation, the suspects revealed they were recruited to the group by handlers in Tanzania. This demonstrates that Al-Shabaab has a wider, terror recruitment network that spans East Africa, which has gone unaffected by the counter-offensive. 

A Burnt Car Following the Attacks in Mandera

Following the relentless raids, it seems Al-Shabaab rushed to retaliate. On the 14th of July, multiple groups of terrorists began launching attacks across Mandera County in Northern Kenya. The first group targeted the only telephone mast in the town of Iresuki, whilst the second group targeted the Jabibar Quick Response Unit camp. The third attacked the Kenyan military base in Elwak. The final group launched an attack on the Waragud Police station. The ambush left two police officers and a teacher dead. After the attacks, the groups burnt parked cars in the street. A joint Kenyan security force mobilised immediately after being notified of the attacks. So far, only two suspects have been arrested for their involvement in the attacks. The two men were found at a construction site with weapons and large amounts of cash, that were stolen during the Mandela County attacks. 

A follow-up coordinated attack occurred across all of Somalia al occurred. These attacks started when a suicide bomber attacked the Hodan District in Somalia's capital, Mogadishu. The Hodan District mostly housed military officers and their families. The attack injured two notable military leaders who had coordinated attacks against Al-Shabaab in the past. At the same time, militants attacked a security checkpoint in the Dayniile District of Mogadishu. They overrun the security forces stationed there and destroyed the checkpoint. 

In the Middle Shabelle, terrorists attacked an ATMIS (African Union Transition Mission in Somalia) base. Fortunately for the citizens of Somalia, ATMIS forces forced Al-Shabaab to retreat. In Lower Shabelle, IED attacks devasted local security forces. The number of casualties has not been released, but many fear it will be high. Further attacks occurred closer to the Kenyan border, with Al-Shabaab taking over the military base. Following an African Union protocol, The military base was handed back to Somali forces just a week ago. Experts believed that Somali forces could protect the area on their own. Now it sits under the control of terrorists.

Whilst continued success from Allied forces shows that Al-Shabaab can be easily combatted, the severity and unexpectedness of these retaliatory attacks demonstrate the power of the terror group. The summer counter-offensive has been successful on many fronts, but these attacks have been the biggest setback yet. The ongoing situation remains murky, with the full extent of the attacks not being revealed. It seems the following months of the counter-offensive will ramp up to curb subsequent, identical, nationwide attacks. 

The End of the United Nations Peace Mission in Mali

After a vote held at the end of June, the UN Security Council has decided to withdraw peacekeeping forces from Mali. Previously, Mali's military junta denounced the peacekeeping forces stating that they caused more issues than they stopped. This refusal to work with UN forces was the final nail in the coffin of the UN's mission in Mali, as it would be unprecedented to continue a mission without the cooperation of the host nation. The UN's Security Council Vote formerly put an end to the peacekeeping mission. 

To the many European nations participating in the peacekeeping mission, the end of the peacekeeping missions marks the start of Mali's new alliance with Russia. The Russian mercenary company, the Wagner Group, has a large presence in Africa protecting regimes from attempted coups. With the recent events involving the Wagner Group and the Russian government, it is uncertain whether the Wagner Group will aid Mali's junta. Despite the uncertainty, Mali's government is taking a step toward democracy with elections in the country being held just a few weeks ago. 

Many security experts think that believe that the end of the peacekeeping mission in Mali leaves the country open to Islamic extremism. Previous rebel groups were promised a role in constitutional conversations under a UN agreement. The withdrawal from the UN leaves the groups involved in the Azawad Movements with no peaceful way to negotiate with the government, which will likely lead to another rebellion. Experts also believe that Mali's military is simply not equipped to deal with the rampant extremism within the country, with Bloomberg describing the armed forces as "ramshackle". Many believe that the military junta will struggle to hold onto control, especially now they have distanced themselves from Western allies. 

Iran's Fostering of Terrorism Against Israel

The Lions' Den Group

On June 25th, Cypriot authorities foiled an attempted attack on an Israeli businessman. Counter-terror intelligence suggests that the attack was actually orchestrated by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a branch of the country's armed forces. This is the most recent instance of the Iranian government's repeated attacks against Israel, either in an official capacity or by supporting terror operatives.

 

Earlier this year, Greek counter-terror authorities apprehended two Pakistani nationals who were aided by the Iranian Government. The two men planned on committing an attack against an Israeli-owned restaurant. The IRGC has also been linked to several other terror plots in the past, with the most recent occurring just last year in Turkey. Intelligence from Shin Bet, the Israeli security agency, suggests that the Palestinian militant organisation Lions' Den is being aided and supported by the Iranian Government. The Lions' Den is often well-equipped with automatic weapons and tactical gear, which seems to have been supplied by the Iranian Government. The agency's director Ronen Bar also suggested that Islamic State has also aided terror attacks against Israel. 

With the instances of Iran fostering terrorism against Israel becoming more common, one wonders whether it will affect the country's relationship with other nations. On multiple occasions, Iran has aided terrorism within multiple other countries. The involvement of the IRGC indicates that these operations are far from secret, but rather openly carried out by the country's armed forces. 

The UN Withdrawal from Mali: Can the Country Remain Stable?

On the 16th of June, the military junta in Mali called for the withdrawal of all UN troops from the nation. The mission, scheduled to end at the end of the month, has created more unrest according to many Malians. Citizens of the West African country feel that United Nations troops have worsened the terror crisis during their ten-year-long campaign. Despite Mali's Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Doip calling for the immediate withdrawal of UN troops at a UN peace conference in New York, a vote to extend the mission's length is still on the agenda at the 30th June Security Council Meeting. Even if the resolution passes, the Chief of the UN's Mission in Mali, El Ghassim Wane, claimed that the mission would be virtually impossible without the cooperation of the country's government. These demands come at a crucial time in the country's history, with elections being held on Sunday, 18th June.

The response from UN forces and groups within Mali has been mixed. One of the most vocal critics of Mali's call for withdrawal is Germany. The country, with over one thousand troops deployed in Mali, remains committed to the planned 2024 withdrawal. Officials in Berlin say the calls for withdrawal from the Malian military government are politically motivated, as the African nation strengthens its relationship with Russia. The Russia-affiliated Wagner Group has also been extremely active in the country.

Everyday citizens of Mali have mixed views on the calls for withdrawal. The UN Mission in Mali is more than just a militaristic force, with many of the fifteen thousand troops deployed in the country serving in logistical roles. After bombings from Islamic extremists, UN troops would assist in rebuilding efforts as well as protecting important libraries housing treasured documents. However, many feel that the UN's role in Mali is not proactive enough. People perceive them as a purely defensive force, only acting after terror incidents. Despite this, many in the country's capital, Timbuktu, do see the usefulness of the forces, which protect the city from major terror incidents. The UN mission in Mali also brings an economic boost, with fifteen thousand well-paid workers in the country. Communities where the UN is active experience economic boom periods. Citizens also fear that the withdrawal of UN troops will allow Islamic extremists and rebels to wreak havoc in the country. Significant progress has been made in peace talks with rebels and extremists. The UN, in conjunction with the Algerian Government, has helped mediate peace talks between the Malian Government and the Coordination of Azawad Movements, a coalition of rebels and Arab nationalist organisations. As the military government in Mali moves towards opening the polls, these groups feel left out of constitutional discussions. In December, the groups pulled out of prearranged agreements overseen by the UN, declaring that they will only rejoin these agreements if they are renegotiated by a neutral party. Now, with talks of the government no longer desiring UN assistance, citizens fear that peaceful negotiations with these groups will not be possible, potentially resulting in a civil war.

The Effects of Terrorism on Education: The ADF Militas Attack in Uganda

Ugandan Military Personnel searching for ADF Militias

One often-forgotten aspect of terrorism is the threat it poses to the lives of young people. It not only threatens their lives but also actively disrupts the education system. Throughout Africa, over nine thousand schools have been closed due to terrorism threats against students or teachers, depriving nearly two million students of an education.

The threats of armed assaults on schools are a valid fear. In Uganda, on June 18th, terror operatives affiliated with the Islamic State entered Lhubiriha Secondary School and began killing students with machetes. These men moved from dormitory to dormitory, armed with blades, stabbing students and attempting to burn down the school. The dorms housed sixty students, and more than half of them were killed in the attacks. The current death toll stands at thirty-seven, with eight students in critical condition after terrorists threw fire bombs into their bedrooms. Six students are believed to have been abducted after being forced to assist the terrorists in stealing food from the school's cafeteria.

The group behind the attack is thought to be the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), based in the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The ADF is closely affiliated with the Islamic State. The attackers are believed to have crossed the border back into the DRC. Ugandan counter-terror forces are reportedly tracking the attackers in the hope of rescuing those abducted by the group.

These attacks have sparked outrage among Ugandans, with border security forces revealing that they had intelligence suggesting the group had been camped near the school two days before the attack. Just a few weeks ago, ADF fighters had been carrying out attacks on border towns in the DRC, leading hundreds of citizens to flee into Uganda.

The ADF commonly targets schools in an attempt to create fear within communities and abduct potential recruits. The fight against terror involves more than just the military; it also requires the protection of everyday services that are vital to keep a community functioning.