Somali and Western Fighters Push Back Against Al-Shabaab

A renewed Western offensive against terror in Somalia earlier this year has yielded impressive results. In January, the US donated weapons to Somali forces to aid in the fight against the terrorist group. In addition, the US has also aided in the training of the Danab, the country's elite counter-terror unit. In the last six months, western/Somali counter-offensives have been incredibly successful. The renewed push at the start of this year has caused the terror group to lose one-third of its territory, according to US Ambassador to Somalia, Larry Andre. 

Though these offences have been a success, Al-Shabaab has claimed they were actually a failure. According to an interview with the group's spokesperson, reported by VOA News, Ali Mohamoud Rage, the original plan was for the group to be eradicated after those six months. Though he claims this, the group has lost more than five hundred kilometres of territory. 

Despite the pushback of the group, the strategies and Western influence involved in such offensives have been questioned by others in the Somali Government. Many have called into question the solely militaristic strategy ignoring the ease of radicalisation for the group. Another reason people fear subsequent offences may fail is the Government favouring the Army over local forces, who were crucial in the first offence's success. Former Director of the National Intelligence and Security Agency, Abdullahi Mohamed Ali Sanaloshe believes that these important local fighters have been left out of the next phases of planning. Leaving out clans and smaller communities who have also fought against Al-Shabaab is a dangerous thing to do, especially if they were instrumental in the first offensive's success. Somali politicians have called for the implementation of social policies that focus on locals to curb Al-Shabaab's control. The opposition in Somalia believes that the presence of the Western military in the country is damaging and that closer ties to Russia were the way forward to counter Al-Shabaab. 

German Police Curb Radical Terror Plot 

In Berlin, a twenty-eight-year old male has been arrested on terrorist charges. The man, who was assisted by his brother, planned on using explosive belts to commit a terror attack against civilians. The suspect was apprehended by a police sting in Hamburg, where he was caught buying bomb making components. The two Syrian nationals are believed to be radical jihadists. 
Whilst this attack seems to be a lone wolf incident, with neither being linked to a terror group, it's important to note that the threat from Syrian terror groups has diminished immensley in the past few weeks. A succesful drone strike on Khalid ‘Aydd Ahmad al-Jabouri, a pivotal leader in the planning of European attacks, has weakend the groups international capabilities immensely. 

 BLOG UPDATE: Future of Vision

Vision counter-terrorism is an endeavour I have really enjoyed working on and it makes me happy to see our posts being read by so many of you. I know our Weekly Newsletter has been enjoyed by many of you, and I want to make sure those newsletters are the best they can be! So going forward, the Weekly Newsletter will be a fortnightly Zine, with informative, current counter-terror news, as well as, some history and in-depth analyses. Unique content will be posted here on our blog too. In addition, some of our Zine articles will be posted for those who don't want to read the whole Zine. The Zine will be completely free and posted here (or through email if there is enough interest). 

We have also started a Medium Blog Page to help bring more traffic to the page! Unique content will also be posted there! I am thinking of keeping this Blog as a place for current-news topics, with Medium being a place for more analytical content. I will try to keep things as balanced as possible, with the Zine being worked on in the background. The Zine will be an amalgamation of worldwide counter-terror news! I am excited for you all to see the first version which will be posted in mid-May. Until then, here is the link to our Medium Page. [Medium Blog: https://medium.com/@visionworldpolitics]

Vision Counterterrorism Newsletter [10/04/2023 to 17/04/2023]

Here is what happened this week in counter-terrorism!

Popular Mobilization Forces Securing the Syrian Border [Source: AFP]

More Truffle Hunting Deaths are Linked to ISIS

During the truffle hunting season in Syria's Hama countryside, hundreds have disappeared or been found murdered by ISIS. This week more truffle hunters have been killed by the terror group. The truffle trade is highly lucrative but dangerous with many willing to risk death for financial gain. This week 26 were killed by ISIS in an area they were previously ousted from. In 2019, the Syrian Defence Forces and US Coalition Forces drove out the group after weeks of intense fighting in the town of Baghouz. (NPASyria, 2023) With the recent spike in disappearances, it's likely that ISIS will return to this area or already have. These 26 victims are more in the group's countless already killed or captured. It is uncertain whether Syrian counter-terror forces and repel ISIS once again or if the area is doomed to fall under their control. 

From Discord to Jail: How the Ukraine Intelligence Leaker Was Caught

After a truckload of confidential US intelligence documents about the Ukraine counter-offensive was leaked authorities rushed to find the culprit. The files included maps, military information and statistics surrounding US secret service involvement in the conflict. It appears as if these documents were first shared on a gaming Discord server, named Thug Shaker Central. Discord, an app meant for gamers to communicate whilst playing, is a rather strange place for confidential documents to be leaked. Discord offers no encryption like Telegram or Whatsapp, it is rather a public place for a professional leaker to dump files. (Strohm et al, 2023) Quickly, it became apparent that the culprit behind this leak was not a professional. This ruled out the idea that a foreign government or enemy group leaked such a document. The lack of anonymity allowed for a suspect to be quickly apprehended.

Only a few days after the leak, twenty-one-year-old Jack Teixeira was arrested. Teixeira was a US Air National Guardsman stationed in Massachusetts, who had recently been promoted to the intelligence division. Teixeira's capture was aided by reporters at the New York Times. According to them, (Scheffler, 2023) Teixeira was meticulously tracked through his digital footprint. After the documents were found on the gaming Discord group, reporter Aric Toller began live-tweeting his findings, leading to the Discord server being deleted. Thankfully, a former member of the group reached out to Toller. This former member revealed that the user posting the leaks to Discord was not the original leaker and that the documents had been posted elsewhere first. This former member also revealed  All they had were the initials O. G. Other members refused to identify the user and with the chat logs deleted, more clues were needed to conclusively find the leaker. NYT reporters found the former members' Steam Profiles. Steam, a website dedicated to playing and buying games keeps extensive data on users' interactions and messages. Investigators were able to look into Steam's data to find all the people the former member had interacted with. They narrowed down their search to a user called jackdjdtex. From this user name, reporters found an Instagram account which led them to Jack Teixeira. 

Jack Teixeira 

Teixeira now faces up to fifteen years in prison for leaking classified information he had obtained from his job in the Air National Guard. Many are asking why From all the reports, Teixeira has always been someone looking for attention and shock. According to CNN (Hicken, 2023), Teixeira had been in trouble multiple times throughout high school due to racist and offensive comments he made. After the 2017 Las Vegas Mass Shooting, he wore a shirt displaying an AR-15. Even in his Steam Profile, the one which led to his arrest, showed him posing with an assault rifle. Former classmates found his obsession with the US and his nationalist views odd. Strangely, for such a nationalistic person, Teixeira had betrayed a country he loved so much. He appeared in a Boston District Courton Friday, where he gave no plea. 

Though Teixeira's action may seem bizarre, it has much broader implications for the war in Ukraine. These documents have already made it to Pro-Russian Telegram servers. The entire Spring Counter-offensive in Ukraine may now be in jeopardy because of Teixeira's actions. 

A Call to Arms: Somalia Call for Russian Support

The Somali Opposition Leader, Sied Abdi Nur, has called for Russian forces to deploy in the country to counter the Western Presence within the country. Abdi Nur is an opponent of Western terror invention within the country, he has often blamed them for the still prominent threat of terrorism within the country. Nur is not just a politician but also a former soldier, who fought alongside US forces in the Battle of Mogadishu, which saw heavy casualties on both sides. In an interview with Russian Publication Sputnik, reported by Al Mayadeen English (2023), Abdi Nur said, "Russia can even participate in Somalian politics and can win, and Somalia would be at peace because we have got a solution where Russia can win without the West. The West does not want my country to be in peace; they create chaos, people kill each other, continue this war". This comes as the country is still wrought with infrastructural and terror issues, as well as an embargo. Since the 1990s, the country has been stuck in a devastating civil war, which has had interventions from United Nations and African Union Peace Keepers. 

With the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, it's unlikely Russia will deploy troops in Somalia. Not just due to their priority being the invasion of Ukraine, but also because they are unlikely to cooperate with Western forces in any capacity. 

References

Al Mayadeen English (2023). Somalian opposition MP calls on Russia to deploy forces in Somalia. [online] Al Mayadeen English. Available at: https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/somalian-opposition-mp-calls-on-russia-to-deploy-forces-in-s [Accessed 18 Apr. 2023].

Hicken, B.E.G.W. (2023). Man arrested in connection with intel leak: ‘Actions speak louder than words’ | CNN Politics. [online] CNN. Available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/14/politics/jack-teixeira-profile/index.html [Accessed 17 Apr. 2023].

NPA Syria (2023). ISIS kills 26 truffle hunters in Syria’s Hama. [online] North press agency. Available at: https://npasyria.com/en/96570/ [Accessed 17 Apr. 2023].

Scheffler, M. (2023). Finding the Pentagon Leak Suspect. The New York Times. [online] 16 Apr. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/16/briefing/pentagon-leak-suspect.html [Accessed 18 Apr. 2023].

Strohm, C., McBride, C., Mostue, A. and Goal, P. (2023). US Charges 21-Year-Old for Taking, Leaking Classified Documents. Bloomberg.com. [online] 14 Apr. Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-14/us-charges-national-guardsman-over-classified-documents-leak [Accessed 17 Apr. 2023].

Will there be a New IRA Attack this Easter Weekend?

[09/04/2023]

This Easter weekend is one of the most significant in Ireland's history. It marks 25 years since the Good Friday Agreement was signed. This was a groundbreaking treaty that ended The Troubles and finally bought resolution to the major conflicts between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The agreement displayed the new, more cordial relationship between the United Kingdom and Ireland. It allowed inter-government cooperation between the two countries, with it also the possibility of a referendum for Northern Ireland to create a unified Ireland. (Passia, 2004) Since 1998, relations between the two countries have been up and down. Recently, it has firmly been on a downward trend. We previously wrote about how the terror threat in the UK was raised due to the possibility of an Irish nationalist attack. Due to the significance of this Easter weekend, police in both countries believe an attack is likely. These potential threats come as US President Joe Biden's planned visit to Belfast, another factor contributing to the potential of an attack. In an interview with Sky News (2023), Northern Irish Police Constable Simon Byrne revealed they had "strong intelligence" that an attack was being planned for the Easter weekend. Police have been stationed in major cities to combat any potential attack. 

We will post any additional updates on this story when they occur. 

Reference List

Blevins, David. “Northern Ireland Police Have “Strong Intelligence” of Attacks Being Planned against Officers on Easter Monday.” Sky News, 7 Apr. 2023, news.sky.com/story/northern-ireland-police-have-strong-intelligence-of-attacks-being-planned-against-officers-on-easter-monday-12851659. Accessed 10 Apr. 2023.

Coakley, John. “ETHNIC CONFLICT and the TWO-STATE SOLUTION: THE IRISH EXPERIENCE of PARTITION.” Passia, 10 Oct. 2004, www.passia.org/seminars/2004/John-Coakley-Ireland-Seminar.htm. Accessed 10 Apr. 2023.

Vision Counterterrorism Newsletter [02/04/2023 to 10/04/2023]

It has been a very hectic and tragic week in counterterrorism with many major incidents occurring. Due to the significance of the events some topics will have seprate, more detailed articles written about them (that will be linked within this newsletter). There will still be a brief summary of events within this newsletter, as well as, wrtite-ups of other news from this week. 

Russian Police at the Scene of the Explosion [Source: NPR]

Suspect Arrested in Russian Blogger Explosion

On April 2nd Russian Military blogger, Vladlen Tatarsky was killed in an explosion in St Petersburg. The rather bizarre explosion seems to have occurred during a meet-up with his subscribers. A woman handed him a gold bust of himself before promptly leaving. Unbeknownst to Tatarsky, the gift he was presented with would explode killing him and injuring 30 others. Tatarsky, real name Maxim Fomin, was extremely popular on Telegram, with over 560,000 followers on the app. The majority of Tatarsky's content was geared toward the ongoing war with Ukraine. The blogger was extremely Pro-Russian and would often travel to the frontlines to film with Russian soldiers. Tatarsky himself was from the disputed Donetsk Region, where he fought for Russian occupation of the area. In more recent times, he became a prominent critic of the Russian Ministry of Defence for their lack of success in the Ukraine war. He would chastise the officers of the war calling them, "untrained idiots". (Sauer and Roth, 2023) The location of this fan meetup also has multiple links to the Pro-Russian movement, including to Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Paramilitary Group. The Wagner Group has been assisting Russia with their war in Ukraine. The venue also held a weekly discussion called Cyberfront Z, referring to the Z symbol which has become synonymous with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Financial Times, 2023) All of these things make Tatarsky and the restaurant a prime location for a Pro-Ukrainian terror attack. However, many think that is not the case and that this may have been perpetrated by the Kremlin itself.

Tatarsky was not just a random blogger but had close links to the Russian Government. Last September, the blogger attended a ceremony at the Kremlin, where Putin laid out Russian annexation plans for Ukraine. Tatarsky was filmed at the event saying, "We’ll conquer everyone, we’ll kill everyone, we’ll loot whoever we need to, and everything will be just as we like it". The Kremlin understood the power of social media in the war and organised a task force to oversee the work of pro-military bloggers. Some believe that the Kremlin was responsible for the explosion. In a similar incident, last year, in August, the daughter of a prominent ultranationalist was killed in an explosion. The Russian Government blamed the Ukrainian Secret Service, others blamed the Kremlin. Some suspect that Tatarsky's criticism of Russia's military leadership was the reason for his assassination. Whilst both sides cast the blame onto one another, Prigozhin, the Wagner Group leader, blamed radical Ukranians, not the state government. 

A video posted to Mash, a Russian law enforcement Telegram group, showed the moment Tatarsky was handed the gold bust, which would later kill him. In the video, a blonde woman gives him the statue. She was quickly identified as Darya Trepova and arrested. The Russian Antiterror Committee believed that she was a member of the Navalny Anti-Corruption Foundation, an anti-Putin organisation. They claim the foundation worked in conjunction with the Ukranian secret service. Ukraine suspects that Trepova had been tricked into committing the attack by the Russian Government. (Sauer, 2023) Only a brief portion of her interrogation has been released, showing no real motive or reasoning by Trepova herself. There has only been speculation by both sides, with Russia claiming it was a Ukranian terror attack and Ukraine believing it was a domestic terror incident. 

We will keep you updated as this story breaks.

Tensions Reach a Boiling Point on the West Bank

Tensions in the West Bank have reached their worst since 2006. After Israeli police raided a Mosque a few days ago, retributory attacks from terror groups have reached a boiling point. This has resulted in multiple missile barrages from both sides. Clashes between Israel and its Arab neighbours have resulted in a new crisis in the Middle East.

The US Kill ISIS Leader in Syria

On the 3rd of April, the US launched a drone strike in Syria that killed its leader Khalid ‘Aydd Ahmad al-Jabouri. Al-Jabouri was key in planning attacks in Europe. Despite this being a huge blow to the organisation, ISIS still poses a large threat in Syria and surrounding Middle Eastern nations. Al-Jabouri was also crucial in organising the ISIS leadership hierarchy. (CENTCOM, 2023) With the death of al-Jabouri, the threat of international attacks from ISIS has diminished immensely. Now, the main focus for counter-terror forces in the middle east will be to launch attacks against national ISIS leaders, minimising the chances of an attack within the country. 

Possibility of an IRA attack

According to Northern Irish Police, there has been intelligence gathered that a terror attack is highly possible over the Easter weekend. This Easter marks 25 years since the groundbreaking Good Friday Agreement was reached. The Easter weekend is extremely significant to the terror issues in Ireland. The Easter Uprising is possibly THE most significant event in all of the Republic of Ireland's history. With this, it's believed an attack is extremely likely this easter weekend. 

More information about the possibility of attack and updates to the situation can be found here:

The raising of the Terror Threat in the UK due to the New IRA: https://visionmilitarynews.blogspot.com/2023/04/vision-counterterrorism-newsletter.html

Possibilty of an Easter Attack: https://visionmilitarynews.blogspot.com/2023/04/will-there-be-new-ira-attack-this.html

British Special Forces investigated for Unlawful Killings in Afghanistan 

After years of legal campaigning, the British Armed Forces have started an investigation into the unlawful killing of Afghan civilians and whether subsequent investigations were carried out properly. This comes after multiple legal challenges from victims' families. Their lawyers allege that 8 Afghans were killed by British Special Forces during a nighttime raid. This new enquiry will investigate all matters involving alleged unlawful killings by the Special Forces from 2010 to 2013. 

These investigations are not only based on the testimony from the victim's families but also from a BBC investigation which found the SAS had killed civilians whilst on night raids. The 2022 report found that the Special Air Service, one of the most prestigious military units in the world, would plant weapons on unlawfully killed civilians to frame them. When presented with this evidence, the Ministry of Defence would refuse to investigate further, arguing that the matters had already been thoroughly examined. Now, it seems like that wasn't the case, with a full reinvestigation of all suspected unlawful killings. 

An independent judge has been assigned to oversee the case. Leigh Day, the law firm representing the families, stated that knowledge of unlawful killings in Afghanistan was well-known but never reported to the military police. (Al Jazeera, 2023) To the families this news is bittersweet. For years they have had to live through such an ordeal and fight against this huge injustice. With this inquiry being opened, hopefully, the families can finally have answers. 

Reference List

Financial Times (2023). Russian pro-war blogger killed in St Petersburg restaurant blast. Financial Times. [online] 2 Apr. Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/e0823df3-e5ec-4c44-a111-a0c311e3e107 [Accessed 8 Apr. 2023].

Sauer, P. (2023). Russian pro-war military blogger killed in blast at St Petersburg cafe. The Guardian. [online] 3 Apr. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/02/russian-pro-war-military-blogger-killed-blast-st-petersburg-vladlen-tatarsky [Accessed 8 Apr. 2023].

Sauer, P. and Roth, A. (2023). Russian police arrest woman over bombing that killed pro-war blogger. The Guardian. [online] 3 Apr. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/03/russian-police-arrest-woman-over-bombing-that-killed-pro-war-blogger-vladlen-tatarsky.

U.S. Central Command. (2023). Strike Kills ISIS Leader in Syria. [online] Available at: https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3350738/strike-kills-isis-leader-in-syria/#:~:text=TAMPA%2C%20Fla. [Accessed 8 Apr. 2023].

www.aljazeera.com. (22AD). UK begins inquiry into ‘unlawful killings’ in Afghanistan. [online] Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/22/uk-launches-inquiry-into-british-army-killing-in-afghanistan [Accessed 2 Apr. 2023].