What is Operation Prosperity Guardian? (The Red Sea Crisis & US strikes in Yemen)

In the sphere of counterterrorism, it has already been a monumental year in 2024. A coalition of forces, led by the US, has launched several attacks on Houthi positions in Yemen. The ongoing operation, called Operation Prosperity Guardian, is a military response to the unfolding Red Sea Crisis. In this article, the goals and aims of the operation will be examined, as well as the crisis that prompted the coalition to form.

The Red Sea Crisis

The Red Sea and Suez Canal are arguably the most important shipping routes in the world. Recent events have forced global trade to use the Suez Canal over other routes, especially for trade between Asia, Europe, and the US. The Suez Canal is faster than circumnavigating the continent of Africa around the Cape of Good Hope, which adds an extra two weeks to sea voyages. Recent droughts in Panama have hindered the capabilities of the Panama Canal, forcing traders to use the Suez Canal. However, the Suez Canal is in a geopolitical hotbed of unrest, notably Yemen, a country whose coast sits on the Red Sea.

Yemen has been facing unrest from the Houthi Movement since the 1980s. The Houthis formed out of staunch opposition to Saudi Arabia's influence over Yemen and were galvanized by the US Invasion of Iraq in the early 1990s. The group is staunchly against western powers and their Asian allies interfering in Middle Eastern matters. The Houthi Movement comprises nearly 20,000 fighters who have been carrying out attacks across Yemen, gaining control of a western section of the country.

The Houthis divide Muslim nations, with some, like Iran and Qatar, financially backing the group in its efforts to overthrow the Yemeni Government. On the other hand, countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been supporting the national Yemeni Government in their fight against the movement. The Houthis have been more proactive in their attacks since the conflict between Israel and Palestine broke out, targeting container ships in the Red Sea. Their most notable attack was on a cargo ship named the Galaxy Leader, which was seized and taken back to a Houthi-controlled port in Yemen, disrupting global trade significantly.

The economic impact of the Crisis has already been seen, with businesses turning to aircraft for shipping due to fears of cargo being jeopardized in the Suez Canal. Some fear that if the crisis goes unanswered, shipping companies may increase their fees, leading to higher prices for goods worldwide. However, leading financial experts believe that a major escalation in Houthi attacks would be required to seriously harm shipping companies to the point where it affects the prices of everyday items.

Operation Prosperity Guardian

UK Typhoon Jets launching strikes against the Houthis

Fearing further escalation, the US formed a coalition of nations to curb Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. On December 18th, the US announced Operation Prosperity Guardian, consisting of the US, UK, Norway, Greece, Sri Lanka, Singapore, Australia, Denmark, The Netherlands, and Bahrain, which will be the host nation for the military operation. There are a number of other aiding nations, though they have chosen not to be named as members of the US Coalition.

In the days after it was signed, on the 31st, the US began to carry out military activity in the Red Sea, with helicopters firing upon small boats attempting to capture a container ship. Ten militants were killed, and Operation Prosperity Guardian had officially begun. Soon, coalition nations began to send naval fleets to the Red Sea to begin their protection efforts. The UK's HMS Richmond and HMS Lancaster are traveling to the Suez as this article is being written. The US has already deployed the aircraft carrier the Dwight D. Eisenhower to the Suez, along with three destroyer-class ships, the USS Gravely, USS Laboon, and USS Mason. On January 9th, US and British navy and aircraft shot down 21 drones and missiles launched at them by the Houthis in Yemen, marking the largest attempted attack by the Houthis in the region. UK officials said that further escalation from the Houthis will only prompt more western nations to join the coalition.

In the Middle East, Prosperity Guardian has been met with mixed results. Many from Yemen are thankful for the protection as it is not only safeguarding global trade routes but also stemming the growth of the Houthi Movement. Officials in Yemen feared that if the Houthis gained significant control over the Red Sea, it would only further their efforts against them. However, Saudi Arabia has not been as happy about the operation's success. They have been attempting to normalize relations with Iran, and it is believed a peace deal might be reached on the condition that Saudi Arabia recognizes the Houthi Movement as a legitimate one. Such recognition could allow the Houthis to be acknowledged on the same level as the Yemeni National Government. Saudi Arabia has been fighting the Houthis since the group's inception and leads a coalition of Middle Eastern nations against the group. These negotiations with Iran could put this Operation in jeopardy. With widespread official recognition, plans to attack the Houthis could become increasingly complicated and fraught with international pressure to stop. Attacks by the Houthis have been condemned by the nations and organizations that support them.

What does this mean for the future of Yemen?

In the realm of counter-terrorism, the future of Yemen hangs in the balance. Several factors will contribute to the success and failure of Operation Prosperity Guardian. The Saudi negotiations with Iran will have a major contributing factor to whether the strike against the Houthis will be condemned by US allies in the Middle East. Furthermore, there are already rumours that US officials are displeased with the UK's immediate, and possibly unplanned, counter-attacks against Houthi forces. The situation has already unfolded rapidly in the past month, so it is likely that more developments in this story will occur in the coming weeks.

To read more about the Yemeni Civil War and its impacts around the world, check out another article here - which looks at how Qatar used US lobbyists to infiltrate Donald Trump's cabinets.